Commission 15: Physical Studies of Comets and Minor Planets

This report of the business meeting of Commission 15 at the 2009 IAU GA is based on notes provided by Walter Huebner, past president, and on the minutes taken by Daniel Boice, secretary of Commission 15 in the triennium 2006 to 2009, with additional notes from the current secretary, Daniel Hestroffer. The business meeting was split into two sessions, the first held on 5 August and the second held on 11 August. This report presents the minutes of the two Commission 15 business-meeting sessions held during General Assembly XXVII.

Bone mineral density in relation to medical and lifestyle risk factors for osteoporosis in premenopausal, menopausal and postmenopausal women in general practice

Background: Interest in the prevention of osteoporosis is increasing and thus there is a need for an acceptable osteoporosis prevention programme in general practice. AIM. A study was undertaken to identify a cohort of middle-aged women attending a general practice who would be eligible for a longitudinal study looking at bone mineral density, osteoporosis and the effectiveness of hormone replacement therapy. This study aimed to describe the relationship between medical and lifestyle risk factors for osteoporosis and the initial bone density measurements in this group of women. METHOD. A health visitor administered a questionnaire to women aged between 48 and 52 years registered with a Belfast general practice. The main outcome measures were menopausal status, presence of medical and lifestyle risk factors and bone mineral density measurements. RESULTS. A total of 358 women our of 472 (76%) took part in the study which was conducted in 1991 and 1992. A highly significant difference was found between the mean bone mineral density of premenopausal, menopausal and postmenopausal women within the narrow study age range, postmenopausal women having the lowest bone mineral density. A significant relationship was found between body mass index and bone mineral density, a greater bone mineral density being found among women with a higher body mass index. Risk factors such as smoking and sedentary lifestyle were common (reported by approximately one third of respondents) but a poor relationship was found between these two and all the other risk factors and bone mineral density in this age group. CONCLUSION. Risk of osteoporosis cannot be identified by the presence of risk factors in women aged between 48 and 52 years. In terms of a current prevention strategy for general practice it would be better to take a population-based approach except for those women known to be at high risk of osteoporosis: women with early menopause or those who have had an oophorectomy.

Mortality in Barrett's oesophagus:Results from a population based study

Background: Patients with Barrett's oesophagus have an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma but this cancer only accounts for a small proportion of deaths in these patients. Other causes of death are reportedly raised in this group. We examined cause specific mortality among individuals in a population based Barrett's oesophagus register. Methods: We constructed a register of all patients diagnosed with columnar mucosa (including specialised intestinal metaplasia) of the oesophagus within Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1999. Deaths occurring within this cohort until 31 December 2000 were identified and mortality rates were compared with the general population. Results: Overall mortality was not raised in Barrett's patients. During 7413 person years of follow up in 2373 patients there were 253 deaths (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 96 (95% confidence interval (CI) 84-107)). Mortality from oesophageal cancer was raised in patients with specialised intestinal metaplasia (SMR 774 (95% CI 317-1231 )) but only 4.7% of patients died from this cancer. Mortality from stroke (SMR 65 (95% CI 37-93)) was significantly lower than the general population while mortality from non-cancerous digestive system diseases was significantly higher (SMR 211 (95% CI 111-311)). Mortality rates from all other causes were similar to those of the general population. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the overall mortality rate in patients with Barrett's oesophagus is closely similar to that of the general population. Oesophageal cancer mortality was raised but is an uncommon cause of death in these patients who also appear to have a reduced risk of death from stroke.

General practitioners’ management of the long-term sick role

In this paper, we use qualitative research techniques to examine the role of general practitioners in the management of the long-term sickness absence. In order to uncover the perspectives of all the main agents affected by the actions of general practitioners, a case study approach focussing on one particular employment sector, the public health service, is adopted. The role of family physicians is viewed from the perspectives of health service managers, occupational health physicians, employees / patients, and general practitioners. Our argument is theoretically framed by Talcott Parsons’s model of the medical contribution to the sick role, along with subsequent conceptualisations of the social role and position of physicians. Sixty one semi-structured interviews and three focus group interviews were conducted in three Health and Social Care Trusts in Northern Ireland between 2010 and 2012. There was a consensus among respondents that general practitioners put far more weight on the preferences and needs of their patients than they did on the requirements of employing organisations. This was explained by respondents in terms of the propinquity and longevity of relationships between doctors and their patients, and by the ideology of holistic care and patient advocacy that general practitioners viewed as providing the foundations of their approach to patients. The approach of general practitioners was viewed negatively by managers and occupational health physicians, and more positively by general practitioners and patients. However, there is some evidence that general practitioners would be prepared to forfeit their role as validators of sick leave. Given the imperatives of both state and capital to reduce the financial burden of long-term sickness, this preparedness puts into doubt the continued role of general practitioners as gatekeepers to legitimate long-term sickness absence.

Integrating geophysical data and upscaling techniques to support regional groundwater flow modelling: A practical example of the Lagan Valley, Northern Ireland

When studying heterogeneous aquifer systems, especially at regional scale, a degree of generalization is anticipated. This can be due to sparse sampling regimes, complex depositional environments or lack of accessibility to measure the subsurface. This can lead to an inaccurate conceptualization which can be detrimental when applied to groundwater flow models. It is important that numerical models are based on observed and accurate geological information and do not rely on the distribution of artificial aquifer properties. This can still be problematic as data will be modelled at a different scale to which it was collected. It is proposed here that integrating geophysics and upscaling techniques can assist in a more realistic and deterministic groundwater flow model. In this study, the sedimentary aquifer of the Lagan Valley in Northern Ireland is chosen due to intruding sub-vertical dolerite dykes. These dykes are of a lower permeability than the sandstone aquifer. The use of airborne magnetics allows the delineation of heterogeneities, confirmed by field analysis. Permeability measured at the field scale is then upscaled to different levels using a correlation with the geophysical data, creating equivalent parameters that can be directly imported into numerical groundwater flow models. These parameters include directional equivalent permeabilities and anisotropy. Several stages of upscaling are modelled in finite element. Initial modelling is providing promising results, especially at the intermediate scale, suggesting an accurate distribution of aquifer properties. This deterministic based methodology is being expanded to include stochastic methods of obtaining heterogeneity location based on airborne geophysical data. This is through the Direct Sample method of Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS). This method uses the magnetics as a training image to computationally determine a probabilistic occurrence of heterogeneity. There is also a need to apply the method to alternate geological contexts where the heterogeneity is of a higher permeability than the host rock.

An Enchanted Tool? Humanitarian Assistance and the ILC Draft Articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters

Despite previous attempts at codification of international law regarding international responses to natural and human-made disasters, there is currently no binding international legal framework to regulate the provision of humanitarian assistance outside armed conflicts. Nevertheless, since the International Law Commission (ILC) included the protection of persons in the event of disasters on its programme of work in 2006, it has provisionally adopted eleven draft articles that have the potential to create binding obligations on states and humanitarian actors in disaster settings. Draft articles adopted include the definition of ‘a disaster’, the relationship of the draft articles to the international humanitarian law of armed conflict, recognition of the inherent dignity of the human person, and the duty of international cooperation. However, the final form of the draft articles has not been agreed. The Codification Division of the UN Office of Legal Affairs has proposed a framework convention format, which has seen support in the ILC and the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. The overall aim of this article is to provide an analysis of the potential forms of international regulation open to the ILC and states in the context of humanitarian responses to disasters. However to avoid enchanting the ILC draft articles with unwarranted power, any examination of form requires an understanding of the substantive subject matter of the planned international regulation. The article therefore provides an overview of the international legal regulation of humanitarian assistance following natural and human-made disasters, and the ILC’s work to date on the topic. It then examines two key issues that remain to be addressed by the ILC and representatives of states in the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. Drawing on the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, the development and implications of binding and non-binding international texts are examined, followed by an analysis of the suggested framework convention approach identified by the Special Rapporteur as a potential outcome of the ILC work.

Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

Implications of aligning full registration of doctors with medical school graduation:a qualitative study of stakeholder perspectives

OBJECTIVES: The Shape of Training report recommended that full registration is aligned with medical school graduation. As part of a General Medical Council-funded study about the preparedness for practice of UK medical graduates, we explored UK stakeholders' views about this proposal using qualitative interviews (30 group and 87 individual interviews) and Framework Analysis.

SETTING: Four UK study sites, one in each country.Save

PARTICIPANTS: 185 individuals from eight stakeholder groups: (1) foundation year 1 (F1) doctors (n=34); (2) fully registered trainee doctors (n=33); (3) clinical educators (n=32); (4) undergraduate/postgraduate Deans, and Foundation Programme Directors (n=30); (5) other healthcare professionals (n=13); (6) employers (n=7); (7) policy and government (n=11); (8) patient and public representatives (n=25).

RESULTS: We identified four main themes: (1) The F1 year as a safety net: patients were protected by close trainee supervision and 'sign off' to prevent errors; trainees were provided with a safe environment for learning on the job; (2) Implications for undergraduate medical education: if the proposal was accepted, a 'radical review' of undergraduate curricula would be needed; undergraduate education might need to be longer; (3) Implications for F1 work practice: steps to protect healthcare team integration and ensure that F1 doctors stay within competency limits would be required; (4) Financial, structural and political implications: there would be cost implications for trainees; clarification of responsibilities between undergraduate and postgraduate medical education would be needed. Typically, each theme comprised arguments for and against the proposal.

CONCLUSIONS: A policy change to align the timing of full registration with graduation would require considerable planning and preliminary work. These findings will inform policymakers' decision-making. Regardless of the decision, medical students should take on greater responsibility for patient care as undergraduates, assessment methods in clinical practice and professionalism domains need development, and good practice in postgraduate supervision and support must be shared.