Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Long-term genomic instability in human lymphocytes induced by single-particle irradiation

Recent evidence suggests that genomic instability, which is an important step in carcinogenesis, may be important in the effectiveness of radiation as a carcinogen, particularly for high-LET radiations. Understanding the biological effects underpinning the risks associated with low doses of densely ionizing radiations is complicated in experimental systems by the Poisson distribution of particles that ran be delivered, In this study, we report an approach to determine the effect of the lowest possible cellular radiation dose of densely ionizing at particles, that of a single particle traversal. Using microbeam technology and an approach for immobilizing human T-lymphocytes, we have measured the effects of single alpha -particle traversals on the surviving progeny of cells. A significant increase in the proportion of aberrant cells is observed 12-13 population doublings after exposure, with a high level of chromatid-type aberrations, indicative of an instability phenotype, These data suggest that instability may be important in situations where even a single particle traverses human cells. (C) 2001 by Radiation Research Society.