A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Demographic and temporal trends in out of hospital sudden cardiac death in belfast

Objective: To determine the epidemiology of out of hospital sudden cardiac death (OHSCD) in Belfast from 1 August 2003 to 31 July 2004.

Design: Prospective examination of out of hospital cardiac arrests by using the Utstein style and necropsy reports. World Health Organization criteria were applied to determine the number of sudden cardiac deaths.

Results: Of 300 OHSCDs, 197 (66%) in men, mean age (SD) 68 (14) years, 234 (78%) occurred at home. The emergency medical services (EMS) attended 279 (93%). Rhythm on EMS arrival was ventricular fibrillation (VF) in 75 (27%). The call to response interval (CRI) was mean (SD) 8 (3) minutes. Among patients attended by the EMS, 9.7% were resuscitated and 7.2% survived to leave hospital alive. The CRI for survivors was mean (SD) 5 (2) minutes and for non-survivors, 8 (3) minutes (p < 0.001). Ninety one (30%) OHSCDs were witnessed; of these 91 patients 48 (53%) had VF on EMS arrival. The survival rate for witnessed VF arrests was 20 of 48 (41.7%): all 20 survivors had VF as the presenting rhythm and CRI ? 7 minutes. The European age standardised incidence for OHSCD was 122/100 000 (95% confidence interval 111 to 133) for men and 41/100 000 (95% confidence interval 36 to 46) for women.

Conclusion: Despite a 37% reduction in heart attack mortality in Ireland over the past 20 years, the incidence of OHSCD in Belfast has not fallen. In this study, 78% of OHSCDs occurred at home.

A Home from Hospital service for older people.

Current policy and practice emphasises much more than ever before a need for purchasers and providers to reduce appropriately the length of hospital stay. Consequently, a number of early discharge “schemes” have been developed. This paper presents the findings from an evaluation of a “home from hospital” (HFH) scheme. The HFH service provides a maximum of six weeks intensive domiciliary care for older people on their discharge from hospital. The aim of the service is to facilitate early discharge from hospital and to assist patients to regain independence. The study reported here elicited the views and perceptions of clients and professionals involved in the HFH scheme about the quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the service. Seventy-five clients were discharged from hospital to the HFH scheme during a two month period and those who consented to participate in the study were interviewed after discharge from the HFH service (n = 40). Participants had attended hospital for various conditions but the largest group were fracture patients. Hospital staff and community based professionals completed a questionnaire about the service. Overall, clients and professionals perceived the HFH scheme as a beneficial service, though some minor problems existed at an individual level. Clients’ dependency levels generally decreased during their time on the scheme. Research using a controlled design is necessary in order to draw firm conclusions about the cost-effectiveness of a HFH service. Overall, home-from-hospital appears to be an effective model of an early discharge scheme worthy of further attention.

GP views about a home from hospital service

This paper reports the results of an investigation, by postal questionnaire, of the views of 30 General Practitioners about a model of out of hospital care – the home from hospital (HFH) service, which mainly provides social care and rehabilitation for patients in their own home. The GPs, who all worked within one of the Health and Social Services Board areas in Northern Ireland during the time of the study (March-April 1998), indicated that the introduction of the HFH service, unlike other models of out of hospital care, did not increase their workload. Therefore, it is suggested that the HFH model of care should be given more attention in terms of research evaluation and service development.