A generalized functional response for predators that switch between multiple prey species

We develop a theory for the food intake of a predator that can switch between multiple prey species. The theory addresses empirical observations of prey switching and is based on the behavioural assumption that a predator tends to continue feeding on prey that are similar to the prey it has consumed last, in terms of, e.g., their morphology, defences, location, habitat choice, or behaviour. From a predator's dietary history and the assumed similarity relationship among prey species, we derive a general closed-form multi-species functional response for describing predators switching between multiple prey species. Our theory includes the Holling type II functional response as a special case and makes consistent predictions when populations of equivalent prey are aggregated or split. An analysis of the derived functional response enables us to highlight the following five main findings. (1) Prey switching leads to an approximate power-law relationship between ratios of prey abundance and prey intake, consistent with experimental data. (2) In agreement with empirical observations, the theory predicts an upper limit of 2 for the exponent of such power laws. (3) Our theory predicts deviations from power-law switching at very low and very high prey-abundance ratios. (4) The theory can predict the diet composition of a predator feeding on multiple prey species from diet observations for predators feeding only on pairs of prey species. (5) Predators foraging on more prey species will show less pronounced prey switching than predators foraging on fewer prey species, thus providing a natural explanation for the known difficulties of observing prey switching in the field. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consistent effects of consumer species loss across different habitats

Our knowledge of the effects of consumer species loss on ecosystem functioning is limited by a paucity of manipulative field studies, particularly those that incorporate inter-trophic effects. Further, given the ongoing transformation of natural habitats by anthropogenic activities, studies should assess the relative importance of biodiversity for ecosystem processes across different environmental contexts by including multiple habitat types. We tested the context-dependency of the effects of consumer species loss by conducting a 15-month field experiment in two habitats (mussel beds and rock pools) on a temperate rocky shore, focussing on the responses of algal assemblages following the single and combined removals of key gastropod grazers (Patella vulgata, P. ulyssiponensis, Littorina littorea and Gibbula umbilicalis). In both habitats, the removal of limpets resulted in a larger increase in macroalgal richness than that of either L. littorea or G. umbilicalis. Further, by the end of the study, macroalgal cover and richness were greater following the removal of multiple grazer species compared to single species removals. Despite substantial differences in physical properties and the structure of benthic assemblages between mussel beds and rock pools, the effects of grazer loss on macroalgal cover, richness, evenness and assemblage structure were remarkably consistent across both habitats. There was, however, a transient habitat-dependent effect of grazer removal on macroalgal assemblage structure that emerged after three months, which was replaced by non-interactive effects of grazer removal and habitat after 15 months. This study shows that the effects of the loss of key consumers may transcend large abiotic and biotic differences between habitats in rocky intertidal systems. While it is clear that consumer diversity is a primary driver of ecosystem functioning, determining its relative importance across multiple contexts is necessary to understand the consequences of consumer species loss against a background of environmental change.

Functional responses of the intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus: effects of prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity.

The influence of predation in structuring ecological communities can be informed by examining the shape and magnitude of the functional response of predators towards prey. We derived functional responses of the ubiquitous intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus towards one of its preferred prey species, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, we examined the form of the functional response where prey were replaced following consumption, as compared to the usual experimental design where prey density in each replicate is allowed to deplete. E. marinus exhibited Type II functional responses, i.e. inversely density-dependent predation of J. nordmanni that increased linearly with prey availability at low densities, but decreased with further prey supply. In both prey replacement and non-replacement experiments, handling times and maximum feeding rates were similar. The non-replacement design underestimated attack rates compared to when prey were replaced. We then compared the use of Holling’s disc equation (assuming constant prey density) with the more appropriate Rogers’ random predator equation (accounting for prey depletion) using the prey non-replacement data. Rogers’ equation returned significantly greater attack rates but lower maximum feeding rates, indicating that model choice has significant implications for parameter estimates. We then manipulated habitat complexity and found significantly reduced predation by the amphipod in complex as opposed to simple habitat structure. Further, the functional response changed from a Type II in simple habitats to a sigmoidal, density-dependent Type III response in complex habitats, which may impart stability on the predator−prey interaction. Enhanced habitat complexity returned significantly lower attack rates, higher handling times and lower maximum feeding rates. These findings illustrate the sensitivity of the functional response to variations in prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity and, further, that E. marinus could potentially determine the local exclusion and persistence of prey through habitat-mediated changes in its predatory functional responses.

Coexistence among native and introduced freshwater amphipods (Crustacea); habitat utilization patterns in littoral habitats

Studies of biological invasions predominantly stress threats to biodiversity through the elimination and replacement of native species. However, we must realise that resident communities may often be capable of integrating invaders, leading to patterns of coexistence. Within the past ninety years, three freshwater amphipod species have invaded Northern Ireland the North American Gammarus tigrinus and Crangonyx pseudogracilis, plus the European G. pulex. These species have come into contact with the ubiquitous native species, G. duebeni celticus. This study examined spatiotemporal patterns of stability of single and mixed species assemblages in an invaded lake. Lough Beg and its associated rivers were surveyed in summer 1994 and winter 1995, and a selection of stations re-sampled in summer one and five years later. All possible combinations of the four amphipod species were found. Although species presence/absence was stable between seasons at the scale of the whole lough, it was extremely fluid at the scale of individual sites, 82% of which changed in species composition between seasons. Overall mean amphipod abundance was similar across 5 distinguishable habitat types, but there were differences in species compositions among these habitats. In addition, although co-occurrences of Gammarus species did not differ from random, there was a strong negative association between Gammarus spp. and C. pseudogracilis. This latter pattern was at least in part generated by the better tolerance of C. pseudogracilis to lower water quality. A review of previous studies indicates that the exclusion of C. pseudogracilis by Gammarus species from high water quality areas is likely to involve biotic interaction. Thus, overall, co-existence of the four species, which is clearly dynamic and scale-dependent, appears promoted by spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity. However, biotic interactions may also play a role in local exclusions. Since the three introduced species have not eliminated the native species, and each successive invasion has not replaced the previous invader, this study demonstrates that freshwater invaders may integrate with native communities leading to coexistence and increased species diversity.

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Methodological considerations in reserve system selection: a case study of Malagasy Lemurs.

Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country’s total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar’s reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.

Locally regularised two-stage learning algorithm for RBF network centre selection

Nonlinear models constructed from radial basis function (RBF) networks can easily be over-fitted due to the noise on the data. While information criteria, such as the final prediction error (FPE), can provide a trade-off between training error and network complexity, the tunable parameters that penalise a large size of network model are hard to determine and are usually network dependent. This article introduces a new locally regularised, two-stage stepwise construction algorithm for RBF networks. The main objective is to produce a parsomous network that generalises well over unseen data. This is achieved by utilising Bayesian learning within a two-stage stepwise construction procedure to penalise centres that are mainly interpreted by the noise.

Temperature-dependent gap edge in strong-coupling superconductors determined using the Eliashberg-Nambu formalism

Using the theory of Eliashberg and Nambu for strong-coupling superconductors, we have calculated the gap function for a model superconductor and a selection of real superconductors includong the elements Al, Sn, Tl, Nb, In, Pb and Hg and one alloy, Bi2Tl. We have determined thetemperature-dependent gap edge in each and found that in materials with weak electron-phonon ($\lambda 1.20$), not only is the gap edge double valued but it also departs significantly from the BCS form and develops a shoulderlike structure which may, in some cases, denote a gap edge exceeding the $T = 0$ value. These computational results support the insights obtained by Leavens in an analytic consideration of the general problem. Both the shoulder and double value arise from a common origin seated in the form of the gap function in strong coupled materials at finite temperatures. From the calculated gap function, we can determine the densities of states in the materials and the form of the tunneling current-voltage characteristics for junctions with these materials as electroddes. By way of illustration, results are shown for the contrasting cases of Sn ($\lambda=0.74$) and Hg ($\lambad=1.63$). The reported results are distinct in several ways from BCS predictions and provide an incentive determinative experimental studies with techniques such as tunneling and far infrared absorption.

Range expansion in an invasive small mammal: influence of life-history and habitat quality.

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity but provide an opportunity to describe the processes that lead to changes in a species’ range. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is an invasive rodent that was introduced to Ireland in the early twentieth century. Given its continuing range expansion, the substantial empirical data on its spread thus far, and the absence of any eradication program, the bank vole in Ireland represents a unique model system for studying the mechanisms influencing the rate of range expansion in invasive small mammals. We described the invasion using a reaction–diffusion model informed by empirical data on life history traits and demographic parameters. We subsequently modelled the processes involved in its range expansion using a rule-based spatially explicit simulation. Habitat suitability interacted with density-dependent parameters to influence dispersal, most notably the density at which local populations started to donate emigrating individuals, the number of dispersing individuals and the direction of dispersal. Whilst local habitat variability influenced the rate of spread, on a larger scale the invasion resembled a simple reaction–diffusion process. Our results suggest a Type 1 range expansion where the rate of expansion is generally constant over time, but with some evidence for a lag period following introduction. We demonstrate that a two-parameter empirical model and a rule-based spatially explicit simulation are sufficient to accurately describe the invasion history of a species that exhibits a complex, density-dependent pattern of dispersal.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Adaptive uncertain information fusion to enhance plan selection in BDI agent systems

Correctly modelling and reasoning with uncertain information from heterogeneous sources in large-scale systems is critical when the reliability is unknown and we still want to derive adequate conclusions. To this end, context-dependent merging strategies have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we investigate how one such context-dependent merging strategy (originally defined for possibility theory), called largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCS), can be adapted to Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. We identify those measures for the degree of uncertainty and internal conflict that are available in DS theory and show how they can be used for guiding LPMCS merging. A simplified real-world power distribution scenario illustrates our framework. We also briefly discuss how our approach can be incorporated into a multi-agent programming language, thus leading to better plan selection and decision making.

Spatio-temporal feeding selection of red deer in a mountainous landscape

Understanding the dietary consumption and selection of wild populations of generalist herbivores is hampered by the complex array of factors. Here, we determine the influence of habitat, season, and animal density, sex, and age on the diet consumption and selection of 426 red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus) culled in Fiordland National Park, New Zealand. Our site differs from studies elsewhere both in habitat (evergreen angiosperm-dominated forests) and the intensity of hunting pressures. We predicted that deer would not consume forage in proportion to its relative availability, and that dietary consumption would change among and within years in response to hunting pressures that would also limit opportunities for age and sex segregation. Using canonical correspondence analysis, we evaluated the relative importance of different drivers of variation in diet consumption assessed from gut content and related these to available forage in the environment. We found that altitude explained the largest proportion of variation in diet consumption, reflecting the ability of deer to alter their consumption and selection in relation to their foraging grounds. Grasses formed a high proportion of the diet consumption, even for deer culled several kilometres from the alpine grasslands. In the winter months, when the alpine grasslands were largely inaccessible, less grass was eaten and deer resorted to woody plants that were avoided in the summer months. Surprisingly, there were no significant dietary differences between adults and juveniles and only subtle differences between the sexes. Sex-based differences in diet consumption are commonly observed in ungulate species and we suggest that they may have been reduced in our study area owing to decreased heterogeneity in available forage as the diversity of palatable species decreased under high deer browsing pressures, or by intense hunting pressure. © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Ecological Society of Australia.