TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA IN THE CASE OF MODEL MISSPECIFICATION

This paper investigates the performance of the tests proposed by Hadri and by Hadri and Larsson for testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data under model misspecification. The panel tests are based on the well known KPSS test (cf. Kwiatkowski et al.) which considers two models: stationarity around a deterministic level and stationarity around a deterministic trend. There is no study, as far as we know, on the statistical properties of the test when the wrong model is used. We also consider the case of the simultaneous presence of the two types of models in a panel. We employ two asymptotics: joint asymptotic, T, N -> infinity simultaneously, and T fixed and N allowed to grow indefinitely. We use Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the effects of misspecification in sample sizes usually used in practice. The results indicate that the assumption that T is fixed rather than asymptotic leads to tests that have less size distortions, particularly for relatively small T with large N panels (micro-panels) than the tests derived under the joint asymptotics. We also find that choosing a deterministic trend when a deterministic level is true does not significantly affect the properties of the test. But, choosing a deterministic level when a deterministic trend is true leads to extreme over-rejections. Therefore, when unsure about which model has generated the data, it is suggested to use the model with a trend. We also propose a new statistic for testing for stationarity in mixed panel data where the mixture is known. The performance of this new test is very good for both cases of T asymptotic and T fixed. The statistic for T asymptotic is slightly undersized when T is very small (

Efficient Non-Linear Idealisations of Aircraft Fuselage Panels in Compression

Aircraft fuselages are complex assemblies of thousands of components and as a result simulation models are highly idealised. In the typical design process, a coarse FE model is used to determine loads within the structure. The size of the model and number of load cases necessitates that only linear static behaviour is considered. This paper reports on the development of a modelling approach to increase the accuracy of the global model, accounting for variations in stiffness due to non-linear structural behaviour. The strategy is based on representing a fuselage sub-section with a single non-linear element. Large portions of fuselage structure are represented by connecting these non-linear elements together to form a framework. The non-linear models are very efficient, reducing computational time significantly

Numerical Method for Cost-Weight Optimisation of Stringer-Skin Panels

The need to integrate cost into the early product definition process as an engineering parameter is addressed. The application studied is a fuselage panel that is typical for commercial transport regional jets. Consequently, a semi-empirical numerical analysis using reference data was coupled to model the structural integrity of thin-walled structures with regard to material failure and buckling: skin, stringer, flexural, and interrivet. The optimization process focuses on direct operating cost (DOC) as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn. It was found that the ratio of acquisition cost to fuel burn was typically 4:3 and that there was a 10% improvement in the DOC for the minimal DOC condition over the minimal weight condition because of the manufacturing cost saving from having a reduced number of larger-area stringers and a slightly thicker skin than that preferred by the minimal weight condition. Also note that the minimal manufacturing cost condition was slightly better than the minimal weight condition, which highlights the key finding: The traditional minimal weight condition is a dated and suboptimal approach to airframe structural design.

Integration Of Strength and Process Modelling of Friction-Stir-Welded Fuselage Panels

In order to reduce potential uncertainties and conservatism in welded panel analysis procedures, understanding of the relationships between welding process parameters and static strength is required. The aim of this study is to determine and characterize the key process induced properties of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel local buckling and collapse performance. To this end, an in-depth experimental and computational study of the static strength of a friction stir welded fuselage skin-stiffener panel subjected to compression loading has been undertaken. Four welding process effects, viz. the weld joint width, the width of the weld Heat Affected Zone, the strength of material within the weld Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of welding induced residual stress, are investigated. A fractional factorial experiment design method (Taguchi) has been applied to identify the relative importance of each welding process effect and investigate effect interactions on both local skin buckling and crippling collapse performance. For the identified dominant welding process effects, parametric studies have been undertaken to identify critical welding process effect magnitudes and boundaries. The studies have shown that local skin buckling is principally influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stress and that the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of the welding induced residual stress have the greatest influence on crippling collapse behavior.


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Modified stiffened panel analysis methods for laser beam and friction stir welded aircraft panels

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realize reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. Current design and analysis methods for aircraft panels have been developed and validated for riveted fabrication. For welded panels, considering the buckling collapse design philosophy of aircraft stiffened panels, strength prediction methods considering welding process effects for both local-buckling and post-buckling behaviours must be developed and validated. This article reports on the work undertaken to develop analysis methods for the crippling failure of stiffened panels fabricated using laser beam and friction stir welding. The work assesses modifications to conventional analysis methods and finite-element analysis methods for strength prediction. The analysis work is validated experimentally with welded single stiffener crippling specimens. The experimental programme has demonstrated the potential static strength of laser beam and friction stir welded sheet-stiffener joints for post-buckling panel applications. The work undertaken has demonstrated that the crippling behaviour of welded stiffened panels may be analysed considering standard-buckling behaviour. However, stiffened panel buckling analysis procedures must be altered to account for the weld joint geometry and process altered material properties. © IMechE 2006.