Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Factors influencing the distribution of native and introduced Gammarus spp. in Irish river systems

Populations of Gammarus duebeni celticus, previously the only amphipod species resident in the rivers of the Lough Neagh catchment, N. Ireland, have been subjected to invasion by G. pulex from the British mainland. Numerous previous studies have investigated the potential behavioural mechanisms, principally differential mutual predation, underlying the replacement of G. d. celticus by G. pulex in Irish waters, and the mutually exclusive distributions of these species in Britain and mainland Europe. However, the relative degree of influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in structuring these amphipod communities remains unresolved. This study used principal component analysis (PCA) to distinguish physico-chemical parameters that have significant roles in determining the current distribution of G. pulex relative to G. d. celticus in L. Neagh rivers. We show that the original domination of rivers by the native G. d, celticus has changed radically, with many sites in several rivers containing either both species or only G. pulex. G. pulex was more abundant than the G. d. celticus in sites with low dissolved oxygen levels. This was reflected in the macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with G. pulex in these sites, which tended to be those tolerant of low biological water quality. The present study thus emphasizes the importance of the habitat template, particularly water quality, for Gammarus spp. interactions. If rivers become increasingly stressed by organic pollution, it is probable the range expansion of G. pulex will continue. Because these two species are not ecological equivalents, the outcomes of G. pulex incursions into G. d. celticus sites may ultimately depend on the prevailing physico-chemical regimes in each site.

Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation, or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date, however, few studies have assessed the effects of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study, we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq, Greenland and Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Methods Genetic analysis of samples from Greenland and Canada was carried out using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results Analysis of nuclear SNPs confirmed hybridization in populations of morphologically intermediate individuals, as well as revealing the existence of cryptic hybrids in ostensibly morphologically pure P. minor populations. Analysis of chloroplast SNPs revealed that this hybridization is unidirectional and suggests that hybrids originate via pollen swamping of P. minor by the more common P. grandiflora. Main conclusions Extensive unidirectional hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F1s are fertile, or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F1s, or by a combination of these processes. This could compromise the ability of species to respond to climate change via habitat tracking, although the final outcome of these processes may ultimately depend on the rate of global climate change and its effect on the species' distributions. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Distribution of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) and landscape favourability for the species in Northern Ireland

The common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) is Ireland’s only native reptile, forming a key part of the island’s biodiversity. However, there is a general paucity of distributional and abundance data for the species. In this study, we collated incidental records for common lizard sightings to define the distribution of the species in Northern Ireland. Maximum entropy modelling was employed to describe species-habitat associations. The resulting predicted landscape favourability was used to evaluate the current status of the species based on the distribution of its maximum potential range in relation to the degree of fragmentation of remaining suitable habitat. In common with previous studies in the Republic of Ireland, sightings were highly clustered indicating under-recording, observer bias, and fragmentation of suitable habitat. A total of 98 records were collated from 1905 to 2009. The species was recorded in 63 (ca. 34%) of 186 × 10 km Northern Irish grid squares. Lizard occurrence was strongly and positively associated with landscapes dominated by heathland, bog and coastal habitats. The single best approximating model correctly classified the presence of lizards in 84.2% of cases. Upland heath, lowland raised bog and sand dune systems are all subject to Habitat Action Plans in Northern Ireland and are threatened by conversion to agriculture, afforestation, invasive species encroachment and infrastructural development. Consequently, remaining common lizard populations are likely to be small, isolated and highly fragmented. Establishment of an ecological network to preserve connectivity of remaining heath and bog will not only benefit remaining common lizard populations but biodiversity in general.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

The current distribution and status of the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera L. 1758 in north-west Ireland

1.Margaritifera margaritifera populations are declining throughout its range, including Ireland, despite legislation designed to protect freshwater pearl mussels and their habitat. A survey of freshwater 2. pearl mussels was carried out on rivers in County Donegal, north-west Ireland, to determine the current distribution, size and density of M. margaritifera populations, as well as to identify potential threats to mussels there. 3. The survey revealed the freshwater pearl mussel to be widespread, particularly in the western half of the county. However, densities of mussels at most sites are low, with just two sites having mussel densities of over 5?m-2. Furthermore, the species appears to be absent from a number of sites from which it had been previously recorded. 4. According to the literature, there is a long history of pearl fishing in Co. Donegal and neighbouring counties. Evidence from heaps of shells found on the river bed and banks at several sites and recent anecdotal reports from local people suggest pearl fishing is being practised on all rivers investigated during the present study. The main conservation requirements for 5. M. margaritifera populations in Donegal are to maintain water quality at its present high standard and, as pearl fishing appears to be a widespread and immediate threat to the remaining mussel populations, to enforce existing legislation designed to protect M. margaritifera.

Habitat associations of the red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris and grey squirrel S-carolinensis in Northern Ireland

A survey of red and grey squirrel habitat associations in Northern Ireland was conducted between September 1994 and August 1995. Two hundred and sixty-one sites were visited and a list of habitat characteristics for each site was noted. Multiple discriminant function analysis of the habitat type was employed to group squirrel occurrence, while contingency analysis examined independence of habitat type and squirrel species presence. Habitat associations differed between the two species. One-way ANOVAs of habitat data suggested that sites occupied by red squirrels only were predominantly coniferous, at higher altitude and latitude and much larger in area than sites occupied by grey squirrels only, which were mostly deciduous. When both species were sympatric, sites were more likely to be coniferous and larger in area than sites occupied by either species. Grey squirrels were less frequent than expected in upland plantations and more frequent than expected in parkland and gardens; the opposite was true for red squirrels. The mean distance between sites with only red squirrels and the nearest site with grey squirrels was greater than the mean distance between sites with only grey squirrels and the nearest site with red squirrels. An approach to conserving the red squirrel in view of the continued expansion in the grey squirrel's distribution in Ireland is discussed.

Distribution and status of the Red Squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) and Grey Squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in Ireland

The distributions of the Red and Grey Squirrel were surveyed in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland between 1994 and 1996. Survey methods differed between the two studies. In the former, all suitable habitat, of at least 15 ha, was inspected for species presence or absence. In the Republic, data were gathered through questionnaires to governmental and independent wildlife bodies. The combined results indicate that the Red Squirrel remains widespread and locally abundant, and is present in all but two counties. The Grey Squirrel is now more widespread than ever before, and can be found in 22 of the 32 counties. Its range expansion has varied from 0 km/yr to an estimated 13.4 km/yr, as various geographical features, principally rivers, have hindered its progress in certain directions.

Deep-sea chitons from sunken wood in the West Pacific (Mollusca: Polyplacophora: Lepidopleurida): taxonomy, distribution, and seven new species

Natural deposits of sunken wood provide an important habitat for deep-sea invertebrates. Deep-sea chitons in the primitive order Lepidopleurida are typically collected rarely and as single specimens. However, these animals have been recovered in large densities associated with sunken wood in the tropical West Pacific, in groups of up to 50 individuals. Four deep- sea expeditions in the West Pacific, to the Philippines, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, recovered a large number of poly- placophorans. We have examined the morphology as well as the range and distribution of these species, based on the larg- est collection ever examined (more than 1300 individuals). These species show potentially adapted characters associated with exploitation of sunken wood as habitat, such as protruding caps on sensory shell pores (aesthetes) and large interseg- mental bristles with potential sensory function. In this study we investigated the twenty-two species recovered, including seven newly described here (Leptochiton consimilis n. sp., L. angustidens n. sp., L. dykei n. sp., L. samadiae n. sp., L. longisetosus n. sp., L. clarki n. sp., L. schwabei n. sp.), and provide the first identification key to the 34 lepidopleuran chitons known from sunken wood worldwide.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

The distribution of arsenic in the body tissues of wood mice and bank voles

Arsenic is accumulated by free-living small mammals, but there is little information on the resultant concentrations in different tissues other than liver and kidney. Such information is important because the severity of toxicological effects may be related to the amount of arsenic accumulated in specific organs, and the availability of arsenic to predators is, in part, dependent on which tissues accumulate arsenic. The objective of this study was to quantify the arsenic concentrations and the percentage of the total body burden (%TBB) accumulated in different body tissues of free-living small mammals and to determine how these factors varied with severity of habitat contamination. Arsenic concentrations were measured in various tissues of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) from a range of arsenic-contaminated sites in southwest Britain. Arsenic concentrations in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract (including contents), liver, kidneys, spleen, lung, femur, and fur of both species varied significantly between sites and were higher in mice and voles from heavily contaminated areas. Heart and brain arsenic concentrations did not vary with degree of environmental contamination. The GI tract and excised carcass contained roughly equal amounts of arsenic and, in sum, comprised 75-85% of the TBB on uncontaminated sites and 90-99% on contaminated sites. Although the excised carcass contains about half of the TBB, its importance in food-chain transfer of arsenic to predators may depend on the bioavailability of arsenic sequestered in fur. In contrast, the GI tract and its contents, provided that it is consumed, will always be a major transfer pathway for arsenic to predators, regardless of the severity of habitat contamination.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Identifying optimal feeding habitat and proposed Marine Protected Areas (pMPAs) for the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) suggests a need for complementary management approaches

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important conservation tool. For marine predators, recent research has focused on the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to identify proposed sites. We used a maximum entropy modelling approach based on static and dynamic oceanographic parameters to determine optimal feeding habitat for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) at two colonies during two consecutive breeding seasons (2009 and 2010). A combination of Geographic Positioning System (GPS) loggers and Time-Depth Recorders (TDRs) attributed feeding activity to specific locations. Feeding areas were <30 km from the colony, <40 km from land, in productive waters, 25–175m deep. The predicted extent of optimal habitat declined at both colonies between 2009 and 2010 coincident with declines in reproductive success. Whilst the area of predicted optimal habitat changed, its location was spatially stable between years. There was a close match between observed feeding locations and habitat predicted as optimal at one colony (Lambay Island, Republic of Ireland), but a notable mismatch at the other (Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland). Designation of an MPA at Rathlin may, therefore, be less effective than a similar designation at Lambay perhaps due to the inherent variability in currents and sea state in the North Channel compared to the comparatively stable conditions in the central Irish Sea. Current strategies for designating MPAs do not accommodate likely future redistribution of resources due to climate change. We advocate the development of new approaches including dynamic MPAs that track changes in optimal habitat and non-colony specific ecosystem management.

Behavioural context of multi-scale species distribution models assessed by radio-tracking

Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

Physicochemical tolerance, habitat use and predation are drivers of patterns of coexistence and exclusion among invasive and resident amphipods

1. Patterns of coexistence and exclusion among resident and invading species in freshwaters may be generated by direct biotic interactions well as by indirect interactions with the broader abiotic and biotic environments. The North American ‘shrimp’ Crangonyx pseudogracilis (Crustacea: Amphipoda) is invasive in Europe where it forms complex patterns of apparent exclusion and coexistence with resident Gammarus spp. amphipods. Using a comprehensive integrated approach, we investigated the potential biotic and interacting abiotic factors driving these distribution patterns.
2. A 2009 of 69 sites revealed that of 56 river sites containing amphipods only 6 contained C. pseudogracilis and these always co-occurred with Gammarus spp.. In contrast, C. pseudogracilis was the only species present in the 12 ponds/reservoirs containing amphipods.
3. Field transplant experiments in ponds and laboratory oxygen tolerance experiments revealed that C. pseudogracilis tolerates physicochemical regimes which Gammarus spp. are incapable of surviving.
4. River microhabitat sampling showed C. pseudogracilis dominating in slower, more pooled and macrophyte-dense patches, while Gammarus spp. were dominant in faster, more riffled areas.
5. Field bioassays indicated that predation of C. pseudogracilis by Gammarus spp. may be frequent in patches of rivers if/when the species meet.
6. River drift sampling revealed that C. pseudogracilis was greatly underrepresented in night/day drift relative to the Gammarus spp.. Laboratory studies showed C. pseudogracilis to be more photophobic and less active than Gammarus spp., both behaviours potentially contributing to low drift prevalence and consequent reduced exposure to shared drift predators.
7. These interacting factors may ultimately contribute to the coexistence, exclusion and relative distributions of C. pseudogracilis and Gammarus spp.. The former is potentially subject to intense predation from the latter if they encounter one another in the same microhabitat. However, with C. pseudogracilis being more physicochemically tolerant and displaying different habitat utilisation patterns than the Gammarus spp. in respect of the benthos and drift, such encounters are probably minimised. Hence C. pseudogracilis can persist in the same sites with the Gammarus spp., albeit in different microhabitats.