The Great Transition:Climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world

In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.

What is the energy balance of grass biomethane in Ireland and other temperate northern European climates?

Biofuels have had bad press in recent years. There are primarily two distinct issues. The biofuel crops with the best yields (such as sugarcane or oil palm) grow in tropical countries where habitat destruction has occurred in association with the biofuel system. First generation indigenous energy crops commonly used for transport fuel in Europe (such as rapeseed and wheat) have low yields and/or the energy balance of the associated biofuel system is poor. This paper shows that grass is a crop with significant yields and grass biomethane (a gaseous renewable transport biofuel) has a very good energy balance and does not involve habitat destruction, land use change, new farming practices or annual tilling. The gross and net energy production per hectare are almost identical to palm oil biodiesel; the net energy of the grass system is at least 50% better than the next best indigenous European biofuel system investigated. Ten percent of Irish grasslands could fuel over 55% of the Irish private car fleet. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moving in and out of poverty - The impact of welfare regimes on poverty dynamics in the EU

Although many of the debates around social exclusion and cumulative disadvantage relate to processes that occur across time, there has been relatively little research into poverty dynamics except in a few notable countries such as Britain, the USA and Germany. This neglect is almost entirely because of the absence of comparative longitudinal data on income for other countries, but it is regrettable given the central importance of this area. By studying poverty dynamics we not only get a better insight into the processes leading to patterns of disadvantage and inequality, but we can also understand better the influence of different welfare state regimes on the social risks experienced by different types of individuals and households. The extent to which different national contexts protect their citizens from poverty persistence, or vary in the factors leading to poverty persistence, tells us a great deal about the workings of their socioeconomic systems and welfare regimes.

In this article we use the recent availability of five waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey to outline the nature of poverty persistence and poverty dynamics across a large number of countries. In doing so we ask three important questions. First, is poverty a more common experience when viewed longitudinally rather than cross-sectionally, and how is this affected by the income poverty line used? Second, can we identify a tendency toward poverty persistence, and does this vary in its extent across countries? Third and lastly, what types of events are more likely to lead to entry into and exit from poverty, and does the importance of these events differ between countries? The article shows that the experience of poverty is far wider than is appreciated from cross-sectional data, and also tends to be more concentrated on a particular population than would be expected from cross-sectional rates. Moreover, the pattern of poverty persistence is congruent with welfare regime theory. The importance of country institutions and welfare regimes is also underlined by the finding that social welfare and market incomes play different roles in poverty transitions across countries, and that Southern European, or residualist, welfare regimes focus poverty risks on the experience of the household's primary earner to a far greater extent than Northern European welfare states do.

Tracking the invasive history of the green alga Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides

The spread of nonindigenous species into new habitats is having a drastic effect on natural ecosystems and represents an increasing threat to global biodiversity. In the marine environment, where data on the movement of invasive species is scarce, the spread of alien seaweeds represents a particular problem. We have employed a combination of plastid microsatellite markers and DNA sequence data from three regions of the plastid genome to trace the invasive history of the green alga Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides. Extremely low levels of genetic variation were detected, with only four haplotypes present in the species’ native range in Japan and only two of these found in introduced populations. These invasive populations displayed a high level of geographical structuring of haplotypes, with one haplotype localized in the Mediterranean and the other found in Northwest Atlantic, northern European and South Pacific populations. Consequently, we postulate that there have been at least two separate introductions of C. fragile ssp. tomentosoides from its native range in the North Pacific.

High precision C-14 dating of Holocene peat deposits: A comparison of Bayesian calibration and wiggle-matching approaches

The chronologies of five northern European ombrotrophic peat bogs subjected to a large ANIS C-14 dating effort (32-44 dates/site) are presented here. The results of Bayesian calibration (BCal) of dates with a prior assumption of chronological ordering were compared with a Bayesian wiggle-match approach (Bpeat) which assumes constant linear accumulation over sections of the peat profile. Interpolation of BCal age estimates of dense sequences of C-14 dates showed variable patterns of peat accumulation with time, with changes in accumulation occurring at intervals ranging from 20 to 50 cm. Within these intervals, peat accumulation appeared to be relatively linear. Close analysis suggests that some of the inferred variations in accumulation rate were related to the plant macrofossil composition of the peat. The wiggle-matched age-depth models had relatively high chronological uncertainty within intervals of closely spaced 14 C dates, suggesting that the premise of constant linear accumulation over large sections of the peat profile is unrealistic. Age models based on the assumption of linear accumulation over large parts of a peat core (and therefore only effective over millennial timescales), are not compatible with studies examining environmental change during the Holocene, where variability often occurs at decadal to centennial time-scales. Ideally, future wiggle-match age models should be constrained, with boundaries between sections based on the plant macrofossil composition of the peat and physical-chemical parameters such as the degree of decomposition. Strategies for the selection of material for dating should be designed so that there should be enough C-14 dates to accurately reconstruct the peat accumulation rate of each homogeneous stratigraphic unit. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predatory impact of the freshwater invader Dikerogammarus villosus (Crustacea : Amphipoda)

To assess the increasing threats to aquatic ecosystems from invasive species, we need to elucidate the mechanisms of impacts of current and predicted future invaders. Dikerogammarus villosus, a Ponto-Caspian amphipod crustacean, is invading throughout Europe and predicted to invade the North American Great Lakes. European field studies show that populations of macroinvertebrates decline after D. villosus invasion. The mechanism of such impacts has not been addressed empirically; however, D. villosus is known to prey upon and replace other amphipods. Therefore, in this study, we used microcosm and mesocosm laboratory experiments, with both single and mixed prey species scenarios, to assess any predatory impact of D. villosus on a range of macro invertebrate taxa, trophic groups, and body sizes. Dikerogammarus villosus predatory behaviour included shredding of prey and infliction of

A retrospective analysis of spring barley germplasm development from 'foundation genotypes' to currently successful cultivars

Twenty-eight mapped barley SSRs were used to examine changes in the level and pattern of variability in northern European spring barley over time. Comparing the most recently introduced cultivars with a group of 19 landraces and key progenitors termed 'foundation genotypes' we observed a reduction in the spectrum of alleles at 28 loci over time, and highlighted chromosomal regions with limited SSR allelic variation. The 19 'foundation genotypes' contained 72% of the alleles present in all the cultivars sampled. The smallest number of genotypes required to encompass all of the alleles detected in this study was 44, several of which were recently introduced cultivars. The level of diversity within modern cultivars was lower (0.484) than in the 'foundation genotypes' (0.597), although the values varied with the SSR locus. A total of 74 rare alleles (frequency

Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland

Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Explaining Social Class Inequalities in Smoking: The Role of Education, Self-Efficacy, and Deprivation

Rates of smoking have decreased dramatically in most Northern European countries over the last 50 years or so, but manual working class groups are substantially more likely to smoke daily than are the professional and managerial classes. This article examines three hypotheses about the processes producing these inequalities. The first argues that social class inequalities reflect differences across education groups in knowledge of the risks of smoking. The second suggests that the living conditions of lower social class groups leads to the development of lower self-efficacy and a lower propensity to quit smoking. The third states that smoking has a functional use among poorer individuals. This article draws upon data from the Republic of Ireland to assess these hypotheses. Our analysis provides some support for the first hypothesis in that education independently reduces the odds of a manual class person smoking relative to a non-manual by 12 per cent. The second hypothesis is not supported by the data. The third hypothesis gains the most support: measures of disadvantage and deprivation account for almost one-third of the class differential in smoking. The results suggest that smoking cessation policy should reflect the importance of social and economic context in quitting behaviour.

Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean–atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Session 4: CVD, diabetes and cancer - Evidence for the use of the Mediterranean diet in patients with CHD

Diet is associated with the development of CHD. The incidence of CHD is lower in southern European countries than in northern European countries and it has been proposed that this difference may be a result of diet. The traditional Mediterranean diet emphasises a high intake of fruits, vegetables, bread, other forms of cereals, potatoes, beans, nuts and seeds. It includes olive oil as a major fat source and dairy products, fish and poultry are consumed in low to moderate amounts. Many observational studies have shown that the Mediterranean diet is associated with reduced risk of CHD, and this result has been confirmed by meta-analysis, while a single randomised controlled trial, the Lyon Diet Heart study, has shown a reduction in CHD risk in subjects following the Mediterranean diet in the secondary prevention setting. However, it is uncertain whether the benefits of the Mediterranean diet are transferable to other non-Mediterranean populations and whether the effects of the Mediterranean diet will still be feasible in light of the changes in pharmacological therapy seen in patients with CHD since the Lyon Diet Heart study was conducted. Further randomised controlled trials are required and if the risk-reducing effect is confirmed then the best methods to effectively deliver this public health message worldwide need to be considered.

Characterisation of UK and Irish Cold-Pressed Rapeseed Oils in Relation to Quality Indices and Constituents.

Cold-pressed rapeseed oil (CPRSO) is produced when seeds from an oilseed rape crop are mechanically crushed whilst at a low temperature. CPRSO’s popularity is rapidly expanding and is now produced in most Northern European countries including both N.Ireland and ROI. The CPRSO industry is still relatively new and therefore not as widely researched as other high quality oils. Fifteen CPRSO from The UK, Ireland and France were examined to determine characteristic differences between the oils. Two samples of extra-virgin olive oil and two samples of refined rapeseed oil were also included in the investigation to assess performance against market competitors. The antioxidant potential of the oils was assessed using the ABTS and DPPH radical scavenging assays. Both unexpectedly showed that refined rapeseed oil had the highest potential whilst there was significant difference between many of the CPRSO’s. The acid value (ACOS method Cd 3d-63) ranged widely from 0.47-3.41. To predict the stability during storage, an accelerated oxidation test was carried out where the oils were placed in an oven (60°C) and peroxide value was monitored. The results showed extra-virgin olive oil underwent the least oxidation during the trial. The refined rapeseed oil suffered the worst levels of oxidation whilst the CPRSO’s performed similarly but with some variation. Fatty acid composition was investigated with GC-MS and some of the major fatty acids were found to differ significantly between producers. Minor compound analysis was achieved with extraction and identification through HPLC. All results are critically discussed and compared to relevant published studies.