Modelo de predicción electoral: el caso de la elección municipal 2015 de León de los Aldama, Guanajuato

El artículo analiza los cambios político electorales en León, Guanajuato, a partir de cómo se fue configurando el desplazamiento del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) por el Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) en este ayuntamiento en el año 1988, hasta el cambio de correlación de fuerzas en el año 2012. Ello da pauta para analizar los escenarios que podrían caracterizar las próximas elecciones de este año. Con este objetivo se propone un modelo estadístico para dicho estudio: el modelo de regresión Dirichlet, el cual permite considerar la naturaleza de los datos electorales.
The article analyzes the electoral changes in León, Guanajuato, based on how it was setting the displacement of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) by the National Action Party (PAN) in this council in 1988, until the change of correlation forces in 2012, which gives guidelines to analyze the scenarios that could characterize the upcoming elections this year. With this aim the authors proposed a statistical model for the study: the Dirichlet regression model, which allows to consider the nature of electoral data.

Development of a Complex Intervention for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Primary Care Using the UK Medical Research Council Framework

Objective: To apply the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for development and evaluation of trials of complex interventions to a primary healthcare intervention to promote secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. Study Design: Case report of intervention development. Methods: First, literature relating to secondary prevention and lifestyle change was reviewed. Second, a preliminary intervention was modeled, based on literature findings and focus group interviews with patients (n = 23) and staff (n = 29) from 4 general practices. Participants’ experiences of and attitudes toward key intervention components were explored. Third, the preliminary intervention was pilot-tested in 4 general practices. After delivery of the pilot intervention, practitioners evaluated the training sessions, and qualitative data relating to experiences of the intervention were collected using semistructured interviews with staff (n = 10) and patient focus groups (n = 17). Results: Literature review identified 3 intervention components: a structured recall system, practitioner training, and patient information. Initial qualitative data identified variations in recall system design, training requirements (medication prescribing, facilitating behavior change), and information appropriate to the prospective study participants. Identifying detailed structures within intervention components clarified how the intervention could be tailored to individual practice, practitioner, and patient needs while preserving the theoretical functions of the components. Findings from the pilot phase informed further modeling of the intervention, reducing administrative time, increasing practical content of training, and omitting unhelpful patient information. Conclusion: Application of the MRC framework helped to determine the feasibility and development of a complex intervention for primary care research.

The Rights of Religious Associations to External Relations: A Comparative Study of the OSCE and the Council of Europe

This paper argues that religious associations have a number of substantive rights when it comes to their external relations. It does so though comparing the position of the OSCE and the Council of Europe. This paper considers whether the emerging framework includes: (1) a right to legal entity status, (2) a right to establish and run charitable or educational institutions, (3) a right to privileges and substantive benefits and (4) a right to anything else. It concludes that the current developments are welcome because religious freedom has a collective aspect that is essential to the lives of many believers.

Annotation of Case C-353/92, Hellenic Republic v Council, ECR 1994 I-3411, and Case C-358/92, Hellenic Republic v Commission, ECR I-3507

Action for annulment - Council Regulation (EEC) Nº 1765/92 of 30 June 1992 establishing a support system for producers of certain arable crops - Commission Regulation (EEC) Nº 2294/92 of 31 July 1992 on detailed rules for the application of the support system for producers of the oil seeds referred to in Council Regulation (EEC) Nº 1765/92 - Obligation to observe a final date for sowing and for lodging an application for a compensatory payment