20 resultados para Granger causality

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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We consider tunneling of a nonrelativistic particle across a potential barrier. It is shown that the barrier acts as an effective beam splitter which builds up the transmitted pulse from the copies of the initial envelope shifted in the coordinate space backward relative to the free propagation. Although along each pathway causality is explicitly obeyed, in special cases reshaping can result an overall reduction of the initial envelope, accompanied by an arbitrary coordinate shift. In the case of a high barrier the delay amplitude distribution (DAD) mimics a Dirac delta function, the transmission amplitude is superoscillatory for finite momenta and tunneling leads to an accurate advancement of the (reduced) initial envelope by the barrier width. In the case of a wide barrier, initial envelope is accurately translated into the complex coordinate plane. The complex shift, given by the first moment of the DAD, accounts for both the displacement of the maximum of the transmitted probability density and the increase in its velocity. It is argued that analyzing apparent

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Silver colloids prepared by reducing AgNO3 in aqueous solution with sodium citrate were embedded in alumina following two different preparation procedures resulting in samples containing 3 and 5 wt.% silver. Characterization of these materials using TEM. XPS, XAES, CP/MAS NMR, XRD, and adsorption-desorption isotherms of nitrogen showed that embedding the pre-prepared silver colloids into the alumina via the sol-gel procedure preserved the particle size of silver. However, as XAES demonstrates, the catalysts prepared in a sol-gel with a lower amount of water led to embedded colloids with a higher population of Ag+ species. The catalytic behaviors of the resultant catalysts were well correlated with the concentration of these species. Thus, the active silver species of the catalysts containing more Ag+ species selectively converts NO to N-2. However, subsequent thermal aging leads to an enhancement of the conversion of NO parallel to slight alteration of the selectivity with the appearance of low amounts of N2O despite an increase of Ag+ species. Accordingly, an optimal surface Ag-0/Ag+ ratio is probably needed, independently of the size of silver particles. It was found that this optimal ratio strongly depends on the operating conditions during the synthesis route. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To examine the association of sunlight exposure and antioxidant level with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: Four thousand seven hundred fifty-three participants aged 65 years or older in the European Eye Study underwent fundus photography, were interviewed for adult lifetime sunlight exposure, and gave blood for antioxidant analysis. Blue light exposure was estimated by combining meteorologic and questionnaire data. Results: Data on sunlight exposure and antioxidants were available in 101 individuals with neovascular AMD, 2182 with early AMD, and 2117 controls. No association was found between blue light exposure and neovascular or early AMD. Significant associations were found between blue light exposure and neovascular AMD in individuals in the quartile of lowest antioxidant level - vitamin C, zeaxanthin, vitamin E, and dietary zinc - with an odds ratio of about 1.4 for 1 standard deviation unit increase in blue light exposure. Higher odds ratios for blue light were observed with combined low antioxidant levels, especially vitamin C, zeaxanthin, and vitamin E (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-8.9), which were also associated with early stages of AMD. Conclusions: Although it is not possible to establish causality between sunlight exposure and neovascular AMD, our results suggest that people in the general population should use ocular protection and follow dietary recommendations for the key antioxidant nutrients. ©2008 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

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Methods of measuring the acoustic behavior of tubular systems can be broadly characterized as steady state measurements, where the measured signals are analyzed in terms of infinite duration sinusoids, and reflectometry measurements which exploit causality to separate the forward and backward going waves in a duct. This paper sets out a multiple microphone reflectometry technique which performs wave separation by using time domain convolution to track the forward and backward going waves in a cylindrical source tube. The current work uses two calibration runs (one for forward going waves and one for backward going waves) to measure the time domain transfer functions for each pair of microphones. These time domain transfer functions encode the time delay, frequency dependent losses and microphone gain ratios for travel between microphones. This approach is applied to the measurement of wave separation, bore profile and input impedance. The work differs from existing frequency domain methods in that it combines the information of multiple microphones within a time domain algorithm, and differs from existing time domain methods in its inclusion of the effect of losses and gain ratios in intermicrophone transfer functions.

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Objectives: We sought to replicate the association between the kinesin-like protein 6 (KIF6) Trp719Arg polymorphism (rs20455), and clinical coronary artery disease (CAD).
Background: Recent prospective studies suggest that carriers of the 719Arg allele in KIF6 are at increased risk of clinical CAD compared with noncarriers.
Methods: The KIF6 Trp719Arg polymorphism (rs20455) was genotyped in 19 case-control studies of nonfatal CAD either as part of a genome-wide association study or in a formal attempt to replicate the initial positive reports.
Results: A total of 17,000 cases and 39,369 controls of European descent as well as a modest number of South Asians, African Americans, Hispanics, East Asians, and admixed cases and controls were successfully genotyped. None of the 19 studies demonstrated an increased risk of CAD in carriers of the 719Arg allele compared with noncarriers. Regression analyses and fixed-effects meta-analyses ruled out with high degree of confidence an increase of <2% in the risk of CAD among European 719Arg carriers. We also observed no increase in the risk of CAD among 719Arg carriers in the subset of Europeans with early-onset disease (younger than 50 years of age for men and younger than 60 years of age for women) compared with similarly aged controls as well as all non-European subgroups.
Conclusions: The KIF6 Trp719Arg polymorphism was not associated with the risk of clinical CAD in this large replication study.

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Two studies were carried out in England to investigate the role of essentialist national group definitions in determining the effect of national identification on prejudice towards immigrants, and asylum seekers in particular. It was expected that the relationship between national identification and prejudice would depend on the degree to which participants endorse an essentialist (`ethnic') definition of their nationality. Consistent with this, Study 1 (N=154) found that national identification is associated with negativity towards asylum seekers only among individuals who endorse an essentialist conception of the group, and shows no significant association with prejudice among those who reject such a conception. Study 2 (N=219) used a longitudinal design conducted over 6 weeks, allowing cross-lagged analysis of causality between essentialism, identification, and behavioural intentions towards asylum seekers. A causal effect of essentialism on willingness to support a group acting against asylum seekers was observed, with no significant causal effect in the reverse direction. The reverse causal direction was observed in the case of support for a group seeking to support asylum seekers, with intended behaviours determining essentialism. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of group definitions in the study of in-group affiliations and prejudice.

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BACKGROUND: Published work assessing psychosocial stress (job strain) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is inconsistent and subject to publication bias and reverse causation bias. We analysed the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease with a meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies. METHODS: We used individual records from 13 European cohort studies (1985-2006) of men and women without coronary heart disease who were employed at time of baseline assessment. We measured job strain with questions from validated job-content and demand-control questionnaires. We extracted data in two stages such that acquisition and harmonisation of job strain measure and covariables occurred before linkage to records for coronary heart disease. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death. FINDINGS: 30?214 (15%) of 197?473 participants reported job strain. In 1·49 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 7·5 years [SD 1·7]), we recorded 2358 events of incident coronary heart disease. After adjustment for sex and age, the hazard ratio for job strain versus no job strain was 1·23 (95% CI 1·10-1·37). This effect estimate was higher in published (1·43, 1·15-1·77) than unpublished (1·16, 1·02-1·32) studies. Hazard ratios were likewise raised in analyses addressing reverse causality by exclusion of events of coronary heart disease that occurred in the first 3 years (1·31, 1·15-1·48) and 5 years (1·30, 1·13-1·50) of follow-up. We noted an association between job strain and coronary heart disease for sex, age groups, socioeconomic strata, and region, and after adjustments for socioeconomic status, and lifestyle and conventional risk factors. The population attributable risk for job strain was 3·4%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that prevention of workplace stress might decrease disease incidence; however, this strategy would have a much smaller effect than would tackling of standard risk factors, such as smoking. FUNDING: Finnish Work Environment Fund, the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, the German Social Accident Insurance, the Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, the BUPA Foundation, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and the US National Institutes of Health.

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We propose a dynamic verification approach for large-scale message passing programs to locate correctness bugs caused by unforeseen nondeterministic interactions. This approach hinges on an efficient protocol to track the causality between nondeterministic message receive operations and potentially matching send operations. We show that causality tracking protocols that rely solely on logical clocks fail to capture all nuances of MPI program behavior, including the variety of ways in which nonblocking calls can complete. Our approach is hinged on formally defining the matches-before relation underlying the MPI standard, and devising lazy update logical clock based algorithms that can correctly discover all potential outcomes of nondeterministic receives in practice. can achieve the same coverage as a vector clock based algorithm while maintaining good scalability. LLCP allows us to analyze realistic MPI programs involving a thousand MPI processes, incurring only modest overheads in terms of communication bandwidth, latency, and memory consumption. © 2011 IEEE.

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The aim of this paper is to explore the ‘natural attitude’ underpinning risk practices in child welfare. This refers to various taken-for-granted approaches to risk that social workers and other human service professionals draw upon in their everyday practice. The approach proceeds by identifying and critically examining three key, meta-theoretical paradigms on risk which typically shape the natural attitude. They are labelled ‘objectivist’, ‘subjectivist’ and ‘critical’. The ontological, epistemological, axiological and methodological premises supporting each paradigm, and how they shape risk practices, are then reviewed leading to a composite, meta-theoretical position on risk termed ‘methodological pragmatism’. This position draws on the strengths of each paradigm and is formulated into ten propositions which consider how risk should be approached in child welfare. Within this corpus of thought salient themes are endorsed such as the need for method triangulation, an examination of ‘deep causality’, and the promotion of emancipatory perspectives. By critically reflecting on meta-theory, the paper contributes to the development of substantive theories of risk assessment and management in child welfare.

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Introduction: Antigenic stimulation is a proposed aetiologic mechanism for many haematological malignancies. Limited evidence suggests that community-acquired infections may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). However, associations with other myeloid malignancies including chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are unknown.

Materials and methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER)-Medicare database, fourteen community-acquired infections were compared between myeloid malignancy patients [AML (n=8489), CML (n=3626) diagnosed 1992-2005; MDS (n=3072) and MPNs (n=2001) diagnosed 2001-2005; and controls (200,000 for AML/CML and 97,681 for MDS/MPN]. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were adjusted for gender, age and year of selection excluding infections diagnosed in the 13-month period prior to selection to reduce reverse causality.

Results: Risk of AML and MDS respectively, were significantly associated with respiratory tract infections, bronchitis (ORs 1.20 [95% CI: 1.14-1.26], 1.25 [95% CI: 1.16-1.36]), influenza (ORs 1.16 [95% CI: 1.07-1.25], 1.29 [95% CI: 1.16-1.44]), pharyngitis (ORs 1.13 [95% CI: 1.06-1.21], 1.22 [95% CI: 1.11-1.35]), pneumonia (ORs 1.28 [95% CI: 1.21-1.36], 1.52 [95% CI: 1.40-1.66]), sinusitis (ORs 1.23 [95% CI: 1.16-1.30], 1.25 [95% CI: 1.15-1.36]) as was cystitis (ORs 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07-1.18], 1.26 [95% CI: 1.17-1.36]). Cellulitis (OR 1.51 [95% CI: 1.39-1.64]), herpes zoster (OR 1.31 [95% CI: 1.14-1.50]) and gastroenteritis (OR 1.38 [95% CI: 1.17-1.64]) were more common in MDS patients than controls. For CML, associations were limited to bronchitis (OR 1.21 [95% CI: 1.12-1.31]), pneumonia (OR 1.49 [95% CI: 1.37-1.62]), sinusitis (OR 1.19 [95% CI: 1.09-1.29]) and cellulitis (OR 1.43 [95% CI: 1.32-1.55]) following Bonferroni correction. Only cellulitis (OR 1.34 [95% CI: 1.21-1.49]) remained significant in MPN patients. Many infections remained elevated when more than 6 years of preceding claims data were excluded.

Discussion: Common community-acquired infections may be important in the malignant transformation of the myeloid lineage. Differences in the aetiology of classic MPNs and other myeloid malignancies require further exploration.

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The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

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Few research papers in economics have examined the extent, causes or consequences of physical stature decline in aging populations. Using repeated observations on objectively measured data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we document that reduction in height is an important phenomenon among respondents aged 50 and over. On average, physical stature decline occurs at an annual rate of between 0.08% and 0.10% for males, and 0.12% and 0.14% for females—which approximately translates into a 2cm to 4cm reduction in height over the life course. Since height is commonly used as a measure of long-run health, our results demonstrate that failing to take age-related height loss into account substantially overstates the health advantage of younger birth cohorts relative to their older counterparts. We also show that there is an absence of consistent predictors of physical stature decline at the individual level. However, we demonstrate how deteriorating health and reductions in height occur simultaneously. We document that declines in muscle mass and bone density are likely to be the mechanism through which these effects are operating. If this physical stature decline is determined by deteriorating health in adulthood, the coefficient on measured height when used as an input in a typical empirical health production function will be affected by reverse causality. While our analysis details the inherent difficulties associated with measuring height in older populations, we do not find that significant bias arises in typical empirical health production functions from the use of height which has not been adjusted for physical stature decline. Therefore, our results validate the use of height among the population aged over 50.

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Background There has been an explosion in research into possible associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions. Aim To review the evidence for associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer, and to document headline discussions of the state of each field. Periodontal associations with diabetes, cardiovascular disease and adverse pregnancy outcomes were not discussed by working group 4. Results Working group 4 recognized that the studies performed to date were largely cross-sectional or case-control with few prospective cohort studies and no randomized clinical trials. The best current evidence suggests that periodontitis is characterized by both infection and pro-inflammatory events, which variously manifest within the systemic diseases and disorders discussed. Diseases with at least minimal evidence of an association with periodontitis include COPD, pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer. The working group agreed that there is insufficient evidence to date to infer causal relationships with the exception that organisms originating in the oral microbiome can cause lung infections. Conclusions The group was unanimous in their opinion that the reported associations do not imply causality, and establishment of causality will require new studies that fulfil the Bradford Hill or equivalent criteria. Precise and community-agreed case definitions of periodontal disease states must be implemented systematically to enable consistent and clearer interpretations of studies of the relationship to systemic diseases. The members of the working group were unanimous in their opinion that to develop data that best inform clinicians, investigators and the public, studies should focus on robust disease outcomes and avoid surrogate endpoints. It was concluded that because of the relative immaturity of the body of evidence for each of the purported relationships, the field is wide open and the gaps in knowledge are large. © 2013 European Federation of Periodontology and American Academy of Periodontology.