Contingent screening for down syndrome is an efficient alternative to non-disclosure sequential screening

Objective To present a first and second trimester Down syndrome screening strategy, whereby second-trimester marker determination is contingent on the first-trimester results. Unlike non-disclosure sequential screening (the Integrated test), which requires all women to have markers in both trimesters, this allows a large proportion of the women to complete screening in the first trimester. Methods Two first-trimester risk cut-offs defined three types of results: positive and referred for early diagnosis; negative with screening complete; and intermediate, needing second-trimester markers. Multivariate Gaussian modelling with Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the false-positive rate for a fixed 85% detection rate. The false-positive rate was evaluated for various early detection rates and early test completion rates. Model parameters were taken from the SURUSS trial. Results Completion of screening in the first trimester for 75% of women resulted in a 30% early detection rate and a 55% second trimester detected rate (net 85%) with a false-positive rate only 0.1% above that achievable by the Integrated test. The screen-positive rate was 0.1% in the first trimester and 4.7% for those continuing to be tested in the second trimester. If the early detection rate were to be increased to 45% or the early completion rate were to be increased to 80%, there would be a further 0.1% increase in the false-positive rate. Conclusion Contingent screening can achieve results comparable with the Integrated test but with earlier completion of screening for most women. Both strategies need to be evaluated in large-scale prospective studies particularly in relation to psychological impact and practicability.

Three-stage contingent screening for down syndrome

Objective To demonstrate the potential value of three-stage sequential screening for Down syndrome. Methods Protocols were considered in which maternal serum pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free -human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements were taken on all women in the first trimester. Those women with very low Down syndrome risks were screened negative at that stage and nuchal translucency (NT) was measured on the remainder and the risk reassessed. Those with very low risk were then screened negative and those with very high risk were offered early diagnostic testing. Those with intermediate risks received second-trimester maternal serum -fetoprotein, free -hCG, unconjugated estriol and inhibin-A. Risk was then reassessed and those with high risk were offered diagnosis. Detection rates and false-positive rates were estimated by multivariate Gaussian modelling using Monte-Carlo simulation. Results The modelling suggests that, with full adherence to a three-stage policy, overall detection rates of nearly 90% and false-positive rates below 2.0% can be achieved. Approximately two-thirds of pregnancies are screened on the basis of first-trimester biochemistry alone, five out of six women complete their screening in the first trimester, and the first-trimester detection rate is over 60%. Conclusion Three-stage contingent sequential screening is potentially highly effective for Down syndrome screening. The acceptability of this protocol and its performance in practice, should be tested in prospective studies. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A study of the Type II-P supernova 2003gd in M74

We present photometric and spectroscopic data of the Type II-P supernova (SN II-P) 2003gd, which was discovered in M74 close to the end of its plateau phase. SN 2003gd is the first Type II supernova ( SN) to have a directly confirmed red supergiant ( RSG) progenitor. We compare SN 2003gd to SN 1999 em, a similar SN II-P, and estimate an explosion date of 2003 March 18. We determine a reddening towards the SN of E(B-V) = 0.14 +/- 0.06, using three different methods. We also calculate three new distances to M74 of 9.6 +/- 2.8, 7.7 +/- 1.7 and 9.6 +/- 2.2 Mpc. The former was estimated using the standard candle method (SCM), for Type II supernovae (SNe II), and the latter two using the brightest supergiants method (BSM). When combined with existing kinematic and BSM distance estimates, we derive a mean value of 9.3 +/- 1.8 Mpc. SN 2003gd was found to have a lower tail luminosity compared with other normal Type II-P supernovae ( SNe II-P) bringing into question the nature of this SN. We present a discussion concluding that this is a normal SN II-P, which is consistent with the observed progenitor mass of 8(-2)(+4) M-circle dot.

Detection of a Red Supergiant Progenitor Star of a Type II-Plateau Supernova

We present the discovery of a red supergiant star that exploded as supernova 2003gd in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Gemini Telescope imaged this galaxy 6 to 9 months before the supernova explosion, and subsequent HST images confirm the positional coincidence of the supernova with a single resolved star that is a red supergiant of 8+4-2 solar masses. This confirms both stellar evolution models and supernova theories predicting that cool red supergiants are the immediate progenitor stars of type II-plateau supernovae.

WASP-3b: a strongly irradiated transiting gas-giant planet

We report the discovery of WASP-3b, the third transiting exoplanet to be discovered by the WASP and SOPHIE collaboration. WASP-3b transits its host star USNO-B1.01256-0285133 every 1.846834 +/- 0.000002 d. Our high-precision radial velocity measurements present a variation with amplitude characteristic of a planetary-mass companion and in phase with the light curve. Adaptive optics imaging shows no evidence for nearby stellar companions, and line-bisector analysis excludes faint, unresolved binarity and stellar activity as the cause of the radial velocity variations. We make a preliminary spectroscopic analysis of the host star and find it to have Teff = 6400 +/- 100K and log g = 4.25 +/- 0.05 which suggests it is most likely an unevolved main-sequence star of spectral type F7-8V. Our simultaneous modelling of the transit photometry and reflex motion of the host leads us to derive a mass of 1.76+0.08-0.14 MJ and radius 1.31+0.07-0.14 RJ for WASP-3b. The proximity and relative temperature of the host star suggests that WASP-3b is one of the hottest exoplanets known, and thus has the potential to place stringent constraints on exoplanet atmospheric models.

Updated parameters for the transiting exoplanet WASP-3b using RISE, a new fast camera for the Liverpool Telescope

Some of the first results are reported from RISE - a new fast camera mounted on the Liverpool Telescope primarily designed to obtain high time-resolution light curves of transiting extrasolar planets for the purpose of transit timing. A full and partial transit of WASP-3 are presented, and a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis is used to update the parameters from the discovery paper. This results in a planetary radius of 1.29(-0.12)(+0.05) R-J and therefore a density of 0.82(-0.09)(+0.14) rho(J), consistent with previous results. The inclination is 85.06(-0.15)(+0.16) deg, in agreement (but with a significant improvement in the precision) with the previously determined value. Central transit times are found to be consistent with the ephemeris given in the discovery paper; however, a new ephemeris calculated using the longer baseline results in T-c(0) = 2 454 605.55915 +/- 0.00023 HJD and P = 1.846835 +/- 0.000002 days.

SN 2008S: an electron-capture SN from a super-AGB progenitor?

We present comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic observations of the faint transient SN 2008S discovered in the nearby galaxy NGC 6946. SN 2008S exhibited slow photometric evolution and almost no spectral variability during the first nine months, implying a long photon diffusion time and a high-density circumstellar medium. Its bolometric luminosity (similar or equal to 10(41) erg s(-1) at peak) is low with respect to most core-collapse supernovae but is comparable to the faintest Type II-P events. Our quasi-bolometric light curve extends to 300 d and shows a tail phase decay rate consistent with that of Co-56. We propose that this is evidence for an explosion and formation of Ni-56 (0.0014 +/- 0.0003 M-circle dot). Spectra of SN 2008S show intense emission lines of H alpha, [Ca II] doublet and Ca II near-infrared (NIR) triplet, all without obvious P-Cygni absorption troughs. The large mid-infrared (MIR) flux detected shortly after explosion can be explained by a light echo from pre-existing dust. The late NIR flux excess is plausibly due to a combination of warm newly formed ejecta dust together with shock-heated dust in the circumstellar environment. We reassess the progenitor object detected previously in Spitzer archive images, supplementing this discussion with a model of the MIR spectral energy distribution. This supports the idea of a dusty, optically thick shell around SN 2008S with an inner radius of nearly 90 AU and outer radius of 450 AU, and an inferred heating source of 3000 K. The luminosity of the central star is L similar or equal to 10(4.6) L-circle dot. All the nearby progenitor dust was likely evaporated in the explosion leaving only the much older dust lying further out in the circumstellar environment. The combination of our long-term multiwavelength monitoring data and the evidence from the progenitor analysis leads us to support the scenario of a weak electron-capture supernova explosion in a super-asymptotic giant branch progenitor star (of initial mass 6-8 M-circle dot) embedded within a thick circumstellar gaseous envelope. We suggest that all of main properties of the electron-capture SN phenomenon are observed in SN 2008S and future observations may allow a definitive answer.

A Transit Timing Analysis of Mine RISE Light Curves of the Exoplanet System TrES-3

We present nine newly observed transits of TrES-3, taken as part of a transit timing program using the RISE instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the planet star radius ratio and inclination of the system, which were found to be R-p/R-star = 0.1664(-0.0018)(+0.0011) and i = 81.73(-0.04)(+0.13), respectively, consistent with previous results. The central transit times and uncertainties were also calculated, using a residual-permutation algorithm as an independent check on the errors. A re-analysis of eight previously published TrES-3 light curves was conducted to determine the transit times and uncertainties using consistent techniques. Whilst the transit times were not found to be in agreement with a linear ephemeris, giving chi(2) = 35.07 for 15 degrees of freedom, we interpret this to be the result of systematics in the light curves rather than a real transit timing variation. This is because the light curves that show the largest deviation from a constant period either have relatively little out-of-transit coverage or have clear systematics. A new ephemeris was calculated using the transit times and was found to be T-c(0) = 2454632.62610 +/- 0.00006 HJD and P = 1.3061864 +/- 0.0000005 days. The transit times were then used to place upper mass limits as a function of the period ratio of a potential perturbing planet, showing that our data are sufficiently sensitive to have probed sub-Earth mass planets in both interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, assuming that the additional planet is in an initially circular orbit.