Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

Global change alters the stability of food webs

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature. How such changes might affect species interactions is important, not just through the presence or absence of interactions, but also because the patterning of interaction strengths among species is intimately associated with community stability. Interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionally important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We review the best empirical data available detailing the frequency distribution of interaction strengths in communities. We present the underlying (but consistent) pattern of species interactions and discuss the implications of this patterning. We then examine how such a basic pattern might be affected given various scenarios of 'change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning.

How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature, all of which are correlated with productivity. Here we argue that predicted scenarios of global change will result in increased plant productivity. We model three scenarios of change using simple Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which explore how a global change in productivity might affect the strength of local species interactions and detail the consequences for community and ecosystem level stability. Our results indicate that (i) at local scales the average population size of consumers may decline because of poor quality food resources, (ii) that the strength of species interactions at equilibrium may become weaker because of reduced population size, and (iii) that species populations may become more variable and may take longer to recover from environmental or anthropogenic disturbances. At local scales interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionatty important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We examine how such local patterns might be affected given various scenarios of 'global change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.

Soil microbes and community coalescence

Community coalescence is a recently introduced term describing the interaction of entire communities and their environments. We here explicitly place the concept of community coalescence in a soil microbial context, exploring intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of such coalescence events. Examples of intrinsic events include the action of earthworms and the dynamics of soil aggregates, while extrinsic events are exemplified by tillage, flooding, litter-fall, outplanting, and the addition of materials containing microbial communities. Aspects of global change may alter the frequency or severity of coalescence events. We highlight functional consequences of community coalescence in soil, and suggest ways to experimentally tackle this phenomenon. Soil ecology as a whole stands to benefit from conceptualizing soil biodiversity in terms of dynamic coalescent microbial assemblages.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

Guns don’t kill people, cyborgs do::a Latourian provocation for transformatory arms control and disarmament

This article seeks to provoke a deeper engagement of Critical Security Studies with security's relations to technology and weapons. It explores existing assumptions about these relations in mainstream arms control and disarmament theory, and the way such assumptions are deployed and distributed in the current settlement of arms control and disarmament practice. It then draws on recent social and philosophical discussions of materiality, particularly on the thought of Bruno Latour, to propose a different set of concepts for exploring the aims and limits of arms control and disarmament. These concepts emphasise the mediating roles of material things in social relations and they may offer a richer view of the object of arms control (weapons and violence) and of the practices of arms limitation and reduction; one that may ultimately gesture towards a different understanding of arms politics, and that may be used to explore the transformatory potentials of arms control and disarmament.

Environmental context determines multi-trophic effects of consumer species loss

Loss of biodiversity and nutrient enrichment are two of the main human impacts on ecosystems globally, yet we understand very little about the interactive effects of multiple stressors on natural communities and how this relates to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Advancing our understanding requires the following: (1) incorporation of processes occurring within and among trophic levels in natural ecosystems and (2) tests of context-dependency of species loss effects. We examined the effects of loss of a key predator and two groups of its prey on algal assemblages at both ambient and enriched nutrient conditions in a marine benthic system and tested for interactions between the loss of functional diversity and nutrient enrichment on ecosystem functioning. We found that enrichment interacted with food web structure to alter the effects of species loss in natural communities. At ambient conditions, the loss of primary consumers led to an increase in biomass of algae, whereas predator loss caused a reduction in algal biomass (i.e. a trophic cascade). However, contrary to expectations, we found that nutrient enrichment negated the cascading effect of predators on algae. Moreover, algal assemblage structure varied in distinct ways in response to mussel loss, grazer loss, predator loss and with nutrient enrichment, with compensatory shifts in algal abundance driven by variation in responses of different algal species to different environmental conditions and the presence of different consumers. We identified and characterized several context-dependent mechanisms driving direct and indirect effects of consumers. Our findings highlight the need to consider environmental context when examining potential species redundancies in particular with regard to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, non-trophic interactions based on empirical evidence must be incorporated into food web-based ecological models to improve understanding of community responses to global change.

Carbon flow in an upland grassland: effect of liming on the flux of recently photosynthesized carbon to rhizosphere soil

The effect of liming on the flow of recently photosynthesized carbon to rhizosphere soil was studied using (CO2)-C-13 pulse labelling, in an upland grassland ecosystem in Scotland. The use of C-13 enabled detection, in the field, of the effect of a 4-year liming period of selected soil plots on C allocation from plant biomass to soil, in comparison with unlimed plots. Photosynthetic rates and carbon turnover were higher in plants grown in limed soils than in those from unlimed plots. Higher delta(13)C% values were detected in shoots from limed plants than in those from unlimed plants in samples clipped within 15 days of the end of pulse labelling. Analysis of the aboveground plant production corresponding to the 4-year period of liming indicated that the standing biomass was higher in plots that received lime. Lower delta(13)C% values in limed roots compared with unlimed roots were found, whereas no significant difference was detected between soil samples. Extrapolation of our results indicated that more C has been lost through the soil than has been gained via photosynthetic assimilation because of pasture liming in Scotland during the period 1990-1998. However, the uncertainty associated with such extrapolation based on this single study is high and these estimates are provided only to set our findings in the broader context of national soil carbon emissions.