Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.

Robust Dynamic Pricing Over Infinite Horizon in The Presence of Model Uncertainty( 2* Journal)

This paper studies a problem of dynamic pricing faced by a retailer with limited inventory, uncertain about the demand rate model, aiming to maximize expected discounted revenue over an infinite time horizon. The retailer doubts his demand model which is generated by historical data and views it as an approximation. Uncertainty in the demand rate model is represented by a notion of generalized relative entropy process, and the robust pricing problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game. The pricing policy is obtained through the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation. The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the HJI equation is shown and a verification theorem is proved to show that the solution of the HJI equation is indeed the value function of the pricing problem. The results are illustrated by an example with exponential nominal demand rate.

North European last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT; 15-9 ka) tephrochronology: extended limits and new events

High-precision correlation of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records is crucial for testing hypotheses of synchronous change. Although radiocarbon is the traditional method for dating late Quaternary sedimentary sequences, particularly during the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9?ka), there are inherent problems with the method, particularly during periods of climate change which are often accompanied by major perturbations in atmospheric radiocarbon content. An alternative method is the use of tephras that act as time-parallel marker horizons. Within Europe, numerous volcanic centres are known to have erupted during the LGIT, providing considerable potential for high-precision correlation independent of past radiocarbon fluctuations. Here we report the first identification of the Vedde Ash and Askja Tephra in Ireland, significantly extending the known provenance of these events. We have also identified two new horizons (the Roddans Port Tephras A and B) and tentatively recognise an additional horizon from Vallensgård Mose (Denmark) that provide crucial additional chronological control for the LGIT. Two phases of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) are reported, the lower Laacher See Tephra (LLST) and probably the C2 phase of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST-C2) indicating a more northeasterly distribution of this fan than reported previously.

Bounded Rationality and Repeated Network Formation

We define a finite-horizon repeated network formation game with consent and study the differences induced by two levels of individual rationality. Perfectly rational players will remain unconnected at the equilibrium, while nonempty equilibrium networks may form when players are assumed to behave as finite automata of limited complexity. We provide structural properties of the sequences of networks which are likely to form in Nash and subgame perfect Nash equilibria of the repeated game. For instance, players can form totally different connected networks at each period or the sequence of networks can exhibit a total order relationship.

Process monitoring approach using fast moving window PCA

This paper introduces a fast algorithm for moving window principal component analysis (MWPCA) which will adapt a principal component model. This incorporates the concept of recursive adaptation within a moving window to (i) adapt the mean and variance of the process variables, (ii) adapt the correlation matrix, and (iii) adjust the PCA model by recomputing the decomposition. This paper shows that the new algorithm is computationally faster than conventional moving window techniques, if the window size exceeds 3 times the number of variables, and is not affected by the window size. A further contribution is the introduction of an N-step-ahead horizon into the process monitoring. This implies that the PCA model, identified N-steps earlier, is used to analyze the current observation. For monitoring complex chemical systems, this work shows that the use of the horizon improves the ability to detect slowly developing drifts.

Biological influence on the morphology and micromorphology of selected Podzols (Spodosols) and Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the Eastern United States and Northeast Scotland

Biological activities greatly influence the formation of many soils, especially forest soils under cool humid climates. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of vegetation and soil biota on the formation of selected soils. Field morphology, micromorphology, and carbon and organic matter analysis were determined on six Podzols (Spodosols) and two Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the eastern United States and north-east Scotland. Humification of plant material by soil fauna and fungi occurs in all organic horizons. Thick organic coatings are observed on soil peds and rock fragments from the E1 to the Bs horizon in a Haplic Podzol from Clingmans Dome Mt., TN. Thin sections reveal large accumulations of root material in different stages of decomposition in the spodic horizons of a Haplic Podzol from Whiteface Mt., NY. Organic carbon ranges from 5.4 to 8.5% in the spodic B horizons of the Whiteface Mt. Podzol. Earthworms and enchytraeids have a great effect on the structure of the surface and subsurface horizons in the Dystric Cambisols from Huntly and Clashindarroch Forests, Scotland and a Cambic Podzol from the Corrie Burn Basin, Scotland. Podzols from Speymouth Forest, Scotland (Gleyic Podzol), Cling-mans Dome Mt., and Whiteface Mt. have thick organic horizons. The Podzols from the Flatwoods in Georgia, the Pine Barrens in New Jersey, the Corrie Burn Basin, and the Cambisol from Huntly Forest have only A horizons at the surface. The Clashindarroch Forest soil has a very thin organic horizon. Warm and humid climates and sandy parent material are responsible for thick E horizons and lack of thick organic horizons in the Flatwoods (Carbic Podzol) and Pine Barrens (Ferric Podzol) soils. Earthworms and enchytraeids thrive in the Corrie Burn Basin and Huntly Forest soils due to the vegetation and the highly weathered basic parent material. The site at Clashindarroch once carried oak, and then birch forest, both of which produce a mild litter and also encourage earthworm and enchytraeids. This fauna is responsible for much mixing of the topsoil. The present conifer vegetation will eventually produce a deep litter and cause podzolization.

Response of surface horizons in an oak forest to prescribed burning

The reduction of forest floor ground cover and litter layers by prescribed fires may alter the morphology (field and micro) and physical properties of surface horizons. This study determined long-term (35 yr) changes in surface horizon bulk density, organic matter concentration and content, and morphology in response to periodic (5 yr) and annual (1 yr) prescribed fires. Soils were fine-silty, siliceous, thermic Glossic Fragiuldults, supporting mixed oak vegetation in middle Tennessee. Upper mineral soils (0- to 2-cm and 0- to 7.6-cm depths) were sampled and detailed field descriptions made. Periodic and control plots had a thin layer of Oi, Oe, and Oa horizons 5 yr after the 1993 burn, whereas on annual burn plots a 1- to 2-cm charred layer was present. Significant reductions in organic matter concentration and mean thickness of the A horizon were found from burning (A horizons thicknesses were 6.4, 4.6, and 2.9 cm in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively). Periodic burns did not significantly alter the organic matter and bulk density of the upper 7.6 cm of mineral soil; however, annual burns did result in significantly higher bulk densities (1.01, 1.07, and 1.29 Mg m-3 in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively) and lower organic matter concentrations and contents. Microscopic investigations confirmed that compaction was increased from annual burning. Thin sections also revealed that the granular structure of the A horizons in control and periodic plots resulted from bioterbation of macro and mesofauna, fungi, and roots. Long-term annual burning greatly affected surface soil properties, whereas periodic burning on a 5-yr cycle had only limited effects.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

Dynamic pricing models for used products in remanufacturing with lost-sales and uncertain quality

In this paper, we investigate the remanufacturing problem of pricing single-class used products (cores) in the face of random price-dependent returns and random demand. Specifically, we propose a dynamic pricing policy for the cores and then model the problem as a continuous-time Markov decision process. Our models are designed to address three objectives: finite horizon total cost minimization, infinite horizon discounted cost, and average cost minimization. Besides proving optimal policy uniqueness and establishing monotonicity results for the infinite horizon problem, we also characterize the structures of the optimal policies, which can greatly simplify the computational procedure. Finally, we use computational examples to assess the impacts of specific parameters on optimal price and reveal the benefits of a dynamic pricing policy. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Credit Unions in Great Britain: Recent Trends and Current Prospects

Against the current backdrop of deteriorating economic and financial conditions we consider recent trends and current prospects for credit unions in Great Britain. We note that although credit unions have experienced solid membership and asset growth there are clouds on the horizon. Bad debts and loan arrears are on the rise and may be linked to recent legislative amendments and the increasing use by Government of credit unions as a mechanism to achieve its financial inclusion goals. Whatever the reason, the deterioration in the loan book needs to be quickly addressed, or it will ultimately result in either more government bailouts or a stream of failing credit unions.