An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

SCUBA imaging of high mass star formation regions

We present 450 and 850 mu m images of five ultracompact HII regions (G10.47, G12.21, G13.87, G31.41 and G43.89) taken at 9

A survey of molecular line emission towards ultracompact HII regions

We have used the JCMT to survey molecular line emission towards 14 ultracompact HII regions (G5.89, G9.62, G10.30, G10.47, G12.21, G13.87, G29.96, G31.41, G34.26, G43.89, G45.12, G45.45, G45.47, and G75.78). For each source, we observed up to ten 1 GHz bands between 200 and 350 GHz, covering lines of more than 30 species including multiple transitions of CO isotopes, CH3OH, CH3CCH, CH3CN and HCOOCH3, and sulphuretted molecules. The number of transitions detected varied by a factor of 20 between sources; which were chosen following observations of high-excitation ammonia (Cesaroni et al. 1994a) and methyl cyanide (Olmi et al. 1993). In half our sample (the line-poor sources), only (CO)-O-17: (CO)-O-18, SO, (CS)-S-34 and CH3OH were detected. In the line-rich sources, we detected over 150 lines, including high excitation lines of CH3CN, HCOOCH3; C2H5CN, CH3OH, and CH3CCH. We have calculated the physical conditions of the molecular gas. To reproduce the emission from the line-rich sources requires both a hot, dense compact core and an ambient cloud consisting of less dense, cooler gas. The hot cores, which are less than 0.1 pc in size; reach densities of at least 10(8) cm(-3) and temperatures of more than 80 K. The line-poor sources can be modelled without a hot core by a 20-30 K, 10(5) cm(-3) cloud. We find no correlation between the size of the HII region and the current physical conditions in the molecular environment. A comparison with chemical models (Millar et al. 1997) confirms that grain surface chemistry is important in hot cores.

A high resolution study of complex organic molecules in hot cores

We present the results of a line identification analysis using data from the IRAM Plateau de Bure Inferferometer, focusing on six massive star-forming hot cores: G31.41+0.31, G29.96-0.02, G19.61-0.23, G10.62-0.38, G24.78+0.08A1 and G24.78+0.08A2. We identify several transitions of vibrationally excited methyl formate (HCOOCH$_3$) for the first time in these objects as well as transitions of other complex molecules, including ethyl cyanide (C$_2$H$_5$CN), and isocyanic acid (HNCO). We also postulate a detection of one transition of glycolaldehyde (CH$_2$(OH)CHO) in two new hot cores. We find G29.96-0.02, G19.61-0.23, G24.78+0.08A1 and 24.78+0.08A2 to be chemically very similar. G31.41+0.31, however, is chemically different: it manifests a larger chemical inventory and has significantly larger column densities. We suggest that it may represent a different evolutionary stage to the other hot cores in the sample, or it may surround a star with a higher mass. We derive column densities for methyl formate in G31.41+0.31, using the rotation diagram method, of $\times$10$^{17}$ cm$^{-2}$ and a T$_{rot}$ of $\sim$170 K. For G29.96-0.02, G24.78+0.08A1 and G24.78+0.08A2, glycolaldehyde, methyl formate and methyl cyanide all seem to trace the same material and peak at roughly the same position towards the dust emission peak. For G31.41+0.31, however, glycolaldehyde shows a different distribution to methyl formate and methyl cyanide and seems to trace the densest, most compact inner part of hot cores.

US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of 'Cheap Money'

In this paper, we employ a unique dataset of actual US dollar (USD) forward positions against a number of currencies taken by so-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). We investigate to what extent these positions exhibit a pattern of USD carry trading or other patterns of currency trading over the recent period of the ultra-loose US monetary policy. Our analysis indeed shows that USD positions against emerging market currencies are characterised by a pattern of carry trading. That is, the USD, as the lower yielding currency, is associated with short positions. The payoff distributions of these positions, moreover, are found to have positive Sharpe ratios, negative skewness and high kurtosis. On the other hand, we find that USD positions against other advanced country currencies have a pattern completely opposite to carry trading which is in line with uncovered interest parity trading; that is, the lower (higher) yielding currency is associated with long (short) positions.