Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Habitat simplification increases the impact of a freshwater invasive fish

Biodiversity continues to decline at a range of spatial scales and there is an urgent requirement to understand how multiple drivers interact in causing such declines. Further, we require methodologies that can facilitate predictions of the effects of such drivers in the future. Habitat degradation and biological invasions are two of the most important threats to biodiversity and here we investigate their combined effects, both in terms of understanding and predicting impacts on native species. The predatory largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides is one of the World’s Worst Invaders, causing declines in native prey species, and its introduction often coincides with habitat simplification. We investigated the predatory functional response, as a measure of ecological impact, of juvenile largemouth bass in artificial vegetation over a range of habitat complexities (high, intermediate, low and zero). Prey, the female guppy Poecilia reticulata, were representative of native fish. As habitats became less complex, significantly more prey were consumed, since, even although attack rates declined, reduced handling times resulted in higher maximum feeding rates by bass. At all levels of habitat complexity, bass exhibited potentially population destabilising Type II functional responses, with no emergence of more stabilising Type III functional responses as often occurs in predator-prey relationships in complex habitats. Thus, habitat degradation and simplification potentially exacerbate the impact of this invasive species, but even highly complex habitats may ultimately not protect native species. The utilisation of functional responses under varying environmental contexts provides a method for the understanding and prediction of invasive species impacts.