Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

How fragmented was the British Holocene wildwood? Perspectives on the “Vera” grazing debate from the fossil beetle record

The reconstruction and structure of the European Holocene “wildwood” has been the focus of considerable academic debate. The ability of palaeoecological data and particularly pollen analysis to accurately reflect the density of wildwood canopy has also been widely discussed. Fossil insects, as a proxy for vegetation and landscape structure, provide a potential approach to address this argument. Here, we present a review and re-analysis of 36 early and mid-Holocene (9500-2000 cal BC) sub-fossil beetle assemblages from Britain, examining percentage values of tree, open ground and dung beetles as well as tree host data to gain an insight into vegetation structure, the role of grazing animals in driving such structure and establish independently the importance of different types of trees and associated shading in the early Holocene “wildwood”. Open indicator beetle species are persistently present over the entire review period, although they fluctuate in importance. During the early Holocene (9500-6000 cal BC), these indicators are initially high, at levels which are not dissimilar to modern data from pasture woodland. However, during the latter stages of this and the next period, 6000-4000 cal BC, open ground and pasture indicators decline and are generally low compared with previously. Alongside this pattern, we see woodland indicators generally increase in importance, although there are significant local fluctuations. Levels of dung beetles are mostly low over these periods, with some exceptions to this pattern, especially towards the end of the Mesolithic and in floodplain areas. Host data associated with the fossil beetles indicate that trees associated with lighter canopy conditions such as oak, pine, hazel and birch are indeed important components of the tree canopy during the earlier Holocene (c. 9500-6000 cal BC), in accordance with much of the current pollen literature. Beetles associated with more shade-tolerant trees (such as lime and elm) become more frequent in the middle Holocene (6000-4000 cal BC) suggesting that at this stage the woodland canopy was less open than previously, although open ground and pasture areas appear to have persisted in some locations. The onset of agriculture (4000-2000 cal BC) coincides with significant fluctuations in woodland composition and taxa. This is presumably as a result of human impact, although here there are significant regional variations. There are also increases in the amounts of open ground represented and especially in the levels of dung beetles present in faunas, suggesting there is a direct relationship between the activities of grazing animals and the development of more open areas. One of the most striking aspects of this review is the variable nature of the landscape suggested by the palaeoecological data, particularly but not exclusively with the onset of agriculture: some earlier sites indicate high variability between levels of tree-associated species on the one hand and the open ground beetle fauna on the other, indicating that in some locations, open areas were of local significance and can be regarded as important features of the Holocene landscape. The role of grazing animals in creating these areas of openness was apparently minimal until the onset of the Neolithic.