Unfunded pension liabilities and sponsoring firm credit risk: an international analysis of corporate bond spreads

This paper tests empirically whether pension information derived by corporate pension accounting disclosures is priced in corporate bond spreads. The model represents a hybrid of more traditional accounting ratio-based models of credit risk and structural models of bond spreads initiated by Merton (1974). The model is fitted to 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 featuring companies from the US and Europe. The paper finds that while unfunded pension liabilities are priced in the overall sample, they are not priced as aggressively as traditional leverage. Furthermore, an extended model shows that the pension–credit risk relation is most evident in the US and Germany, where unfunded pension liabilities are priced more aggressively than traditional forms of leverage. No pension–credit risk relation is found in the other countries sampled, notably the UK, Netherlands and France.

Unfunded Pension Liabilities and the Corporate CDS Market

This article examines the impact of pension deficits on default risk as measured by the premia on corporate credit default swaps (CDS). We find highly significant evidence that unfunded pension liabilities raise one- and five-year CDS premia. However, this relation is not homogeneous across countries, with the U.S. CDS market leading its European counterparts in the pricing of defined-benefit pension risk.

A Pension for Injured Victims of the Troubles: Reparations or Reifying Victim Hierarchy?

Reparations have been often used victim-centred measures to redress both private harm and gross violations of human rights. However, with the increasing occurrence of internal armed conflict and political violence, identities of victims and perpetrators in protracted conflicts can become blurred for some individuals. In countries like Peru and Northern Ireland that have suffered protracted violence, victimhood has been contested around which individuals are seen as innocent and deserving to exclude any members of non-state armed groups from claiming reparations. This article explores the issue of a proposed bill on a pension for injured victims of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. It identifies that there is no consistent state practice or human rights jurisprudence in this area, but instead offers a more complex approach through four models that can grapple with the seeming diametrically opposed victimhood and responsibility, by including victimised-perpetrators in reparations programmes such as that proposed for a pension of seriously injured victims in Northern Ireland.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Climate change, Hans Jonas and indirect investors

This article considers how corporate behaviour in relation to climate change might be reconfigured and the role that indirect investors might play in this reconfiguring. The article suggests that the consequences of climate change are serious enough that indirect investors might be prevailed upon, using a model of behaviour suggested by the work of Hans Jonas, to pressure institutional investors into demanding changes in corporate policy towards climate change. Jonas' work represents a plea for the recognition and acceptance of responsibility in the face of nature's vulnerability and humanity's power over technology. The article suggests that this ethic can be operationalised in relation to corporate governance by building on the changes in the pattern of investment holdings that have taken place in large public companies in the preceding two decades or so. The idea is to appeal to individuals who may perceive themselves as currently being outsiders – or at least only distant stakeholders in relation to the corporation – to realise the responsibility vested in them as beneficiaries through their interest in pension funds, life assurance policies, annuities and other arm's-length financial arrangements with corporations. The hope is that these individuals may, through the influence of a model of responsibility, become active investors and beneficiaries interested in corporate practices that impact on climate change and, encourage others to do likewise.

Military Service Pensions for public and civil servants in independent Ireland

In 1924 the Cumann na nGaedheal government introduced the first Military Service Pensions Act to provide monetary compensation for those who fought for Irish independence between 1916 and 1923. Pensioners who were in receipt of remuneration from the state as civil and public servants had a portion of their pension deducted commensurate with their state income. This controversial provision was criticised by all political parties as representing a mean-spirited attitude towards veterans of the independence campaign and treating civil and public servants differently from those in private employment. It was eventually modified in the 1940s and abolished in the 1950s. This article provides a case study that highlights the parsimonious attitude of Irish governments towards veterans of the independence campaign and shows how the treatment of public and civil servants reflected tensions between the government and the civil service in the early years of the state.

Military Service Pensions for Veterans of the Irish Revolution, 1916–1923

In 1924 the Irish Free State government passed legislation to award pensions to veterans of the Irish revolution and Civil War. This article argues that the motivation for the pensions was the need to placate the national army after a failed mutiny in 1924 and that this explains their unusual nature in being based on service alone rather than disability. It will also explore the problems this created for defining service, examine the extension of eligibility to former republican enemies of the state and women revolutionaries in 1934, and describe the application and assessment procedure.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.