Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying research priorities on infections in older adults:Proceedings of an interdisciplinary workshop

Background: Infections pose a substantial burden to the health of older adults. In this report, we describe the proceedings of a workshop to formulate and prioritize research questions about infections in older adults using an interdisciplinary approach. Methods: Researchers from four sectors (basic science, clinical sciences, health services and epidemiology/determinants of health) and representatives from various Canadian local, provincial, and federal stakeholder groups were invited to a two-day workshop. Five multi-disciplinary groups and stakeholders from each of three healthcare settings (long term, acute care and community) discussed research priorities for each of the settings. Five to ten research questions were identified for each setting. Results: The research questions proposed ranged from risk factors and outcomes for different infections to the effect of nutrition on infection and the role of alternative and complementary medicine in treating infections. Health service issues included barriers to immunization, prolongation of hospital length of stay by infection, use of care paths for managing infections, and decision-making in determining the site of care for individuals with infections. Clinical questions included risk factor assessment for infection, the effectiveness of preventative strategies, and technology evaluation. Epidemiologic issues included the challenge of achieving a better understanding of respiratory infections in the community and determining the prevalence of colonization with multi-resistant bacteria. Conclusions: The questions are of direct relevance to researchers in a wide variety of fields. Bringing together a multi-disciplinary group of researchers to frame and prioritize research questions about aging is feasible, participants valued the opinions of people working in other areas.

‘I don’t think I’d be frightened if the statins went’: a phenomenological qualitative study exploring medicines use in palliative care patients, carers and healthcare professionals

Background

Reflective analysis of a mixed-methods approach to study the experiences of young people leaving care in Romania.

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The health status and health service needs of primary caregivers of cancer survivors: a mixed methods approach

This study aimed to measure the health status and care needs of people who provide informal care to cancer survivors in the UK. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 24 cancer professionals to identify the care needs of caregivers. In addition, we conducted a postal survey measuring the health and wellbeing (SF-36) and health service utilisation of 98 primary caregivers of a random sample of cancer survivors, 2-20 years post-treatment. Interviews indicated that caregivers’ needs were largely unmet. In particular, there appeared to be a need in relation to statutory health care provision, information, psychological support and involvement in decision making. There were no significant differences between survivors and caregivers in terms of mental health scores; and caregivers performed better on physical health domains compared to cancer survivors. Compared to UK norms and norms for caregivers of other chronic conditions, cancer caregivers had substantially lower scores on each SF-36 health domain. Cancer may impact negatively on an informal caregiver’s health long after treatment has ended. Providing appropriate and cancer specific information may alleviate difficulties and improve health and wellbeing. Specific concentration should be given to the development and delivery of information support for caregivers of post-treatment cancer survivors.

A research-based approach to exploring the adoption of novel UK-based concrete test methods in Chinese construction sector

As part of a UK-China science bridge project - a UK government funded initiative linking leading universities and businesses in selective partnering countries in 2009 a collaborative research programme was initiated between Queen's University and the Research Institute of High Performance Concrete (part of the Central Research Institute of Building and Construction) in Beijing.

For further details email b.magee@ulster.ac.uk

Maths anxiety in psychology undergraduates: A mixed-methods approach to formulating and implementing interventions

A key challenge to educators in disciplines that, while not maths based, nevertheless
contain some maths component, is mathematics anxiety. Over the years, a number of
intervention strategies have been tested, seeking reduce maths anxiety in undergraduates.
Many of these studies, however, contain methodological issues that challenge their validity. It
is also unclear how many of these studies decide which type of interventions to use. This
research sought to correct both of these issues. In Study 1, focus groups were carried out to
explore which interventions students believed would most likely reduce their maths anxiety.
Study 2 implemented those interventions that Study 1 showed to be practical and potentially
effective, utilising a large sample of Year 1 and Year 2 psychology undergraduates,
controlling for potential methodological confounds. Results showed that only one
intervention (teaching quantitative research methods using real-life examples) had any
significant effect on maths anxiety, and this was slight. These results, while not impressive by
themselves, do suggest ways in which larger-scale interventions could seek to proceed in
terms of reducing maths anxiety.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Difference equation approach to two-thermocouple sensor characterisation in constant velocity flow environments

Thermocouples are one of the most popular devices for temperature measurement due to their robustness, ease of manufacture and installation, and low cost. However, when used in certain harsh environments, for example, in combustion systems and engine exhausts, large wire diameters are required, and consequently the measurement bandwidth is reduced. This article discusses a software compensation technique to address the loss of high frequency fluctuations based on measurements from two thermocouples. In particular, a difference equation sDEd approach is proposed and compared with existing methods both in simulation and on experimental test rig data with constant flow velocity. It is found that the DE algorithm, combined with the use of generalized total least squares for parameter identification, provides better performance in terms of time constant estimation without any a priori assumption on the time constant ratios of the thermocouples.

Two-wire thermocouples: A nonlinear state estimation approach to temperature reconstruction.

The problem of measuring high frequency variations in temperature is described, and the need for some form of reconstruction introduced. One method of reconstructing temperature measurements is to use the signals from two thermocouples of differing diameter. Two existing methods for processing such measurements and reconstructing the higher frequency components are described. These are compared to a novel reconstruction algorithm based on a nonlinear extended Kalman filter. The performance of this filter is found to compare favorably, in a number of ways, with the existing techniques, and it is suggested that such a technique would be viable for the online reconstruction of temperatures in real time.

Qualitative methods in the study of children's racial attitudes and identities

This article examines the role that qualitative methods can play in the study of children's racial attitudes and behaviour. It does this by discussing a number of examples taken from a qualitative, ethnographic study of five- and six-year-old children in an English multi-ethnic, inner-city primary school. The examples are used to highlight the limitations of research that relies solely on quantitative methods and the potential that qualitative methods have for addressing these limitations. Within this context the article contrasts the strengths and weaknesses of qualitative and quantitative methods in the study of children's racial attitudes and identities. The article concludes by arguing that a much more integrated multi-method approach is needed in this area and sets out some of the most effective ways this could be achieved.

A split-combination approach to merging knowledge bases in possibilistic logic

In this paper, we propose an adaptive approach to merging possibilistic knowledge bases that deploys multiple operators instead of a single operator in the merging process. The merging approach consists of two steps: one is called the splitting step and the other is called the combination step. The splitting step splits each knowledge base into two subbases and then in the second step, different classes of subbases are combined using different operators. Our approach is applied to knowledge bases which are self-consistent and the result of merging is also a consistent knowledge base. Two operators are proposed based on two different splitting methods. Both operators result in a possibilistic knowledge base which contains more information than that obtained by the t-conorm (such as the maximum) based merging methods. In the flat case, one of the operators provides a good alternative to syntax-based merging operators in classical logic.