Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

A Fast Nonlinear Model Identification Method

The identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using linear-in-the-parameters models is studied. A fast recursive algorithm (FRA) is proposed to select both the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. Unlike orthogonal least squares (OLS) method, FRA solves the least-squares problem recursively over the model order without requiring matrix decomposition. The computational complexity of both algorithms is analyzed, along with their numerical stability. The new method is shown to require much less computational effort and is also numerically more stable than OLS.

Triply differential single ionization cross sections in coplanar and non-coplanar geometry for fast heavy ion-atom collisions

We have performed a kinematically complete experiment and calculations on single ionization in 100 MeV/amu C6+ + He collisions. For electrons ejected into the scattering plane (defined by the initial and final projectile momentum vectors) our first- and higher-order calculations are in good agreement with the data. In the plane perpendicular to the scattering plane and containing the initial projectile axis a strong forward-backward asymmetry is observed. In this plane both the first-order and the higher-order calculations do not provide good agreement neither with the data nor amongst each other.

Total cross sections for transfer ionization in fast ion-helium collisions

The effects of electron correlation and second-order terms on theoretical total cross sections of transfer ionization in collisions of the helium atom with fast H+, He2+ and Li3+ ions are studied and reported. The total cross sections are calculated using highly correlated wavefunctions with expansion of the transition amplitude in the Born series through the second order. The results of these calculations are in sensible agreement with experimental data.

Time signatures of impulsively generated coronal fast wave trains

Impulsively generated short-period fast magneto-acoustic wave trains, guided by solar and stellar coronal loops, are numerically modelled. In the developed stage of the evolution, the wave trains have a characteristic quasi-periodic signature. The quasi-periodicity results from the geometrical dispersion of the guided fast modes, determined by the transverse profile of the loop. A typical feature of the signature is a tadpole wavelet Spectrum: a narrow-spectrum tail precedes a broad-band head. The instantaneous period of the oscillations in the wave train decreases gradually with time. The period and the spectral amplitude evolution are shown to be determined by the steepness of the transverse density profile and the density contrast ratio in the loop. The propagating wave trains recently discovered with the Solar Eclipse Coronal Imaging System (SECIS) instrument are noted to have similar wavelet spectral features, which strengthens the interpretation of SECIS results as guided fast wave trains.

Ion-Atom/Argon - Calculation of ionization cross sections by fast ion impact for neutral target atoms ranging from hydrogen to argon

A FORTRAN 90 program is presented which calculates the total cross sections, and the electron energy spectra of the singly and doubly differential cross sections for the single target ionization of neutral atoms ranging from hydrogen up to and including argon. The code is applicable for the case of both high and low Z projectile impact in fast ion-atom collisions. The theoretical models provided for the program user are based on two quantum mechanical approximations which have proved to be very successful in the study of ionization in ion-atom collisions. These are the continuum-distorted-wave (CDW) and continuum-distorted-wave eikonal-initial-state (CDW-EIS) approximations. The codes presented here extend previously published. codes for single ionization of. target hydrogen [Crothers and McCartney, Comput. Phys. Commun. 72 (1992) 288], target helium [Nesbitt, O'Rourke and Crothers, Comput. Phys. Commun. 114 (1998) 385] and target atoms ranging from lithium to neon [O'Rourke, McSherry and Crothers, Comput. Phys. Commun. 131 (2000) 129]. Cross sections for all of these target atoms may be obtained as limiting cases from the present code. Title of program: ARGON Catalogue identifier: ADSE Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/cpc/summaries/ADSE Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library Queen's University of Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: none Computer for which the program is designed and others on which it is operable: Computers: Four by 200 MHz Pro Pentium Linux server, DEC Alpha 21164; Four by 400 MHz Pentium 2 Xeon 450 Linux server, IBM SP2 and SUN Enterprise 3500 Installations: Queen's University, Belfast Operating systems under which the program has been tested: Red-hat Linux 5.2, Digital UNIX Version 4.0d, AIX, Solaris SunOS 5.7 Compilers: PGI workstations, DEC CAMPUS Programming language used: FORTRAN 90 with MPI directives No. of bits in a word: 64, except on Linux servers 32 Number of processors used: any number Has the code been vectorized or parallelized? Parallelized using MPI No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 32 189 Distribution format: tar gzip file Keywords: Single ionization, cross sections, continuum-distorted-wave model, continuum- distorted-wave eikonal-initial-state model, target atoms, wave treatment Nature of physical problem: The code calculates total, and differential cross sections for the single ionization of target atoms ranging from hydrogen up to and including argon by both light and heavy ion impact. Method of solution: ARGON allows the user to calculate the cross sections using either the CDW or CDW-EIS [J. Phys. B 16 (1983) 3229] models within the wave treatment. Restrictions on the complexity of the program: Both the CDW and CDW-EIS models are two-state perturbative approximations. Typical running time: Times vary according to input data and number of processors. For one processor the test input data for double differential cross sections (40 points) took less than one second, whereas the test input for total cross sections (20 points) took 32 minutes. Unusual features of the program: none (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Fast heating of ultrahigh-density plasma as a step towards laser fusion ignition

ate studies(2) and fusion energy research(3,4). Laser-driven implosions of spherical polymer shells have, for example, achieved an increase in density of 1,000 times relative to the solid state(5). These densities are large enough to enable controlled fusion, but to achieve energy gain a small volume of compressed fuel (known as the 'spark') must be heated to temperatures of about 10(8) K (corresponding to thermal energies in excess of 10 keV). In the conventional approach to controlled fusion, the spark is both produced and heated by accurately timed shock waves(4), but this process requires both precise implosion symmetry and a very large drive energy. In principle, these requirements can be significantly relaxed by performing the compression and fast heating separately(6-10); however, this 'fast ignitor' approach(7) also suffers drawbacks, such as propagation losses and deflection of the ultra-intense laser pulse by the plasma surrounding the compressed fuel. Here we employ a new compression geometry that eliminates these problems; we combine production of compressed matter in a laser-driven implosion with picosecond-fast heating by a laser pulse timed to coincide with the peak compression. Our approach therefore permits efficient compression and heating to be carried out simultaneously, providing a route to efficient fusion energy production.