Modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost at the concept stage

The work presented is concerned with the estimation of manufacturing cost at the concept design stage, when little technical information is readily available. The work focuses on the nose cowl sections of a wide range of engine nacelles built at Bombardier Aerospace Shorts of Belfast. A core methodology is presented that: defines manufacturing cost elements that are prominent; utilises technical parameters that are highly influential in generating those costs; establishes the linkage between these two; and builds the associated cost estimating relations into models. The methodology is readily adapted to deal with both the early and more mature conceptual design phases, which thereby highlights the generic, flexible and fundamental nature of the method. The early concept cost model simplifies cost as a cumulative element that can be estimated using higher level complexity ratings, while the mature concept cost model breaks manufacturing cost down into a number of constituents that are each driven by their own specific drivers. Both methodologies have an average error of less that ten percent when correlated with actual findings, thus achieving an acceptable level of accuracy. By way of validity and application, the research is firmly based on industrial case studies and practice and addresses the integration of design and manufacture through cost. The main contribution of the paper is the cost modelling methodology. The elemental modelling of the cost breakdown structure through materials, part fabrication, assembly and their associated drivers is relevant to the analytical design procedure, as it utilises design definition and complexity that is understood by engineers.

An Integration Methodology for Automated Recurring Cost Prediction using Digital Manufacturing Technology

The need to account for the effect of design decisions on manufacture and the impact of manufacturing cost on the life cycle cost of any product are well established. In this context, digital design and manufacturing solutions have to be further developed to facilitate and automate the integration of cost as one of the major driver in the product life cycle management. This article is to present an integration methodology for implementing cost estimation capability within a digital manufacturing environment. A digital manufacturing structure of knowledge databases are set out and the ontology of assembly and part costing that is consistent with the structure is provided. Although the methodology is currently used for recurring cost prediction, it can be well applied to other functional developments, such as process planning. A prototype tool is developed to integrate both assembly time cost and parts manufacturing costs within the same digital environment. An industrial example is used to validate this approach.

Numerical Method for Cost-Weight Optimisation of Stringer-Skin Panels

The need to integrate cost into the early product definition process as an engineering parameter is addressed. The application studied is a fuselage panel that is typical for commercial transport regional jets. Consequently, a semi-empirical numerical analysis using reference data was coupled to model the structural integrity of thin-walled structures with regard to material failure and buckling: skin, stringer, flexural, and interrivet. The optimization process focuses on direct operating cost (DOC) as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn. It was found that the ratio of acquisition cost to fuel burn was typically 4:3 and that there was a 10% improvement in the DOC for the minimal DOC condition over the minimal weight condition because of the manufacturing cost saving from having a reduced number of larger-area stringers and a slightly thicker skin than that preferred by the minimal weight condition. Also note that the minimal manufacturing cost condition was slightly better than the minimal weight condition, which highlights the key finding: The traditional minimal weight condition is a dated and suboptimal approach to airframe structural design.

Aircraft Cost Modelling using the Genetic Causal Technique within a Systems Engineering Approach

The paper is primarily concerned with the modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost. The aim is to establish an integrated life cycle balanced design process through a systems engineering approach to interdisciplinary analysis and control. The cost modelling is achieved using the genetic causal approach that enforces product family categorisation and the subsequent generation of causal relationships between deterministic cost components and their design source. This utilises causal parametric cost drivers and the definition of the physical architecture from the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify product families. The paper presents applications to the overall aircraft design with a particular focus on the fuselage as a subsystem of the aircraft, including fuselage panels and localised detail, as well as engine nacelles. The higher level application to aircraft requirements and functional analysis is investigated and verified relative to life cycle design issues for the relationship between acquisition cost and Direct Operational Cost (DOC), for a range of both metal and composite subsystems. Maintenance is considered in some detail as an important contributor to DOC and life cycle cost. The lower level application to aircraft physical architecture is investigated and verified for the WBS of an engine nacelle, including a sequential build stage investigation of the materials, fabrication and assembly costs. The studies are then extended by investigating the acquisition cost of aircraft fuselages, including the recurring unit cost and the non-recurring design cost of the airframe sub-system. The systems costing methodology is facilitated by the genetic causal cost modeling technique as the latter is highly generic, interdisciplinary, flexible, multilevel and recursive in nature, and can be applied at the various analysis levels required of systems engineering. Therefore, the main contribution of paper is a methodology for applying systems engineering costing, supported by the genetic causal cost modeling approach, whether at a requirements, functional or physical level.

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.

Modelling lay-up automation and production rate interaction on the cost of large stiffened panel components

This paper presents an integrated design and costing method for large stiffened panels for the purpose of investigating the influence and interaction of lay-up technology and production rate on manufacturing cost. A series of wing cover panels (≈586kg, 19·9m2) have been sized with realistic requirements considering manual and automated lay-up routes. The integrated method has enabled the quantification of component unit cost sensitivity to changes in annual production rate and employed equipment maximum deposition rate. Moreover the results demonstrate the interconnected relationship between lay-up process and panel design, and unit cost. The optimum unit cost solution when using automated lay-up is a combination of the minimum deposition rate and minimum number of lay-up machines to meet the required production rate. However, the location of the optimum unit cost, at the boundaries between the number of lay-up machines required, can make unit cost very sensitive to small changes in component design, production rate, and equipment maximum deposition rate. - See more at: http://aerosociety.com/News/Publications/Aero-Journal/Online/1941/Modelling-layup-automation-and-production-rate-interaction-on-the-cost-of-large-stiffened-panel-components#sthash.0fLuu9iG.dpuf

The Characterization of Friction Stir Welding Process Effects on Stiffened Panel Buckling Performance

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realize reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. However, welding processes can introduce undesirable residual stresses and distortions in the final fabricated components, as well as localized loss of mechanical properties at the weld joints. The aim of this research is to determine and characterize the key process effects of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel static strength performance. This in-depth understanding of the relationships between welding process effects and buckling and collapse strength is required to achieve manufacturing cost reductions without introducing structural analysis uncertainties and hence conservative over designed welded panels. This current work is focused at the sub-component level and examines the static strength of friction stir welded multi stiffener panels. The undertaken experimental and computational studies have demonstrated that local skin buckling is predominantly influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stresses and associated geometric distortions, whereas panel collapse behavior is sensitive to the lateral width of the physically joined skin and stiffener flange material, the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone as well as the magnitude of the welding induced residual stresses. Copyright © 2006 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.


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Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Application of fibre assemblies as damping elements in the automotive industry

This investigation aims to characterise the damping properties of the nonwoven materials with potential applications in automotive and aerospace industry. Nonwovens are a popular choice for many applications due to their relatively low manufacturing cost and unique properties. It is known that nonwovens are efficient energy dispersers for certain applications such as acoustic damping and ballistic impact. It is anticipated that these energy absorption properties could eventually be used to provide damping for mechanical vibrations. However the behaviour of nonwovens under dynamic load and vibration has not been investigated before. Therefore we intend to highlight these aspects of the behaviour of the nonwovens through this research. In order to obtain an insight to the energy absorption properties of the nonwoven fabrics, a range of tests has been performed. Forced vibration of the cantilever beam is used to explore damping over a range of resonance modes and input amplitudes. The tests are conducted on aramid, glass fibre and polyester fabrics with a range of area densities and various coatings. The tests clarified the general dynamic behaviour of the fabrics tested and the possible response in more real application condition as well. The energy absorption in both thickness and plane of the fabric is tested. The effects of the area density on the results are identified. The main absorption mechanism is known to be the friction. The frictional properties are improved by using a smaller fibre denier and increasing fibre length, this is a result of increasing contact surface between fibres. It is expected the increased friction result in improving damping. The results indicate different mechanism of damping for fiber glass fabrics compared to the aramid fabrics. The frequency of maximum efficiency of damping is identified for the fabrics tested. These can be used to recommend potential applications.

Impact of composite ply continuity constraints on aerospace stiffened panel design

Considering the development of aerospace composite components, designing for reduced manufacturing layup cost and structural complexity is increasingly important. While the advantage of composite materials is the ability to tailor designs to various structural loads for minimum mass, the challenge is obtaining a design that is manufacturable and minimizes local ply incompatibility. The focus of the presented research is understanding how the relationships between mass, manufacturability and design complexity, under realistic loads and design requirements, can be affected by enforcing ply continuity in the design process. Presented are a series of sizing case studies on an upper wing cover, designed using conventional analyses and the tabular laminate design process. Introducing skin ply continuity constraints can generate skin designs with minimal ply discontinuities, fewer ply drops and larger ply areas than designs not constrained for continuity. However, the reduced design freedom associated with the addition of these constraints results in a weight penalty over the total wing cover. Perhaps more interestingly, when considering manual hand layup the reduced design complexity is not translated into a reduced recurring manufacturing cost. In contrast, heavier wing cover designs appear to take more time to layup regardless of the laminate design complexity. © 2012 AIAA.

Influence of Manufacturing Tolerance on Aircraft Direct Operating Cost (DOC)

The influence of manufacturing tolerance on direct operating cost (DOC) is extrapolated from an engine nacelle to be representative of an entire aircraft body. Initial manufacturing tolerance data was obtained from the shop floor at Bombardier Aerospace Shorts, Belfast while the corresponding costs were calculated according to various recurring elements such as basic labour and overtime labour, rework, concessions, and redeployment; along with the non-recurrent costs due to tooling and machinery, etc. The relation of tolerance to cost was modelled statistically so that the cost impact of tolerance change could be ascertained. It was shown that a relatively small relaxation in the assembly and fabrication tolerances of the wetted surfaces resulted in reduced costs of production that lowered aircraft DOC, as the incurred drag penalty was predicted and taken into account during the optimisation process.