Measuring the macrosystem in post-accord Northern Ireland: A social-ecological approach

The macrosystem refers to the overarching patterns that influence behavior at each level of the social ecology (Bronfenbrenner, 1977), making it a necessary component for assessing human development in contexts of political violence. This article proposes a method for systematically measuring the macrosystem in Northern Ireland that allows for a subnational analysis, multiple time units, and indicators of both low-level violence and positive relations. Articles were randomly chosen for each weekday in 2006-2011 from two prominent Northern Irish newspapers and coded according to their reflection of positive relations and political tensions between Catholics and Protestants. The newspaper data were then compared to existing macro-level measurements in Northern Ireland. We found that the newspaper data provided a more nuanced understanding of fluctuations in intergroup relations than the corresponding measures. This has practical implications for peacebuilding and advances our methods for assessing the impact of macro-level processes on individual development.

Identifying solutions to increase participation in physical activity interventions within a socio-economically disadvantaged community: a qualitative study

Background: There is an urgent need to increase population levels of physical activity, particularly amongst those who are socio-economically disadvantaged. Multiple factors influence physical activity behaviour but the generalisability of current evidence to such ‘hard-to-reach’ population subgroups is limited by difficulties in recruiting them into studies. Also, rigorous qualitative studies of lay perceptions and perceptions of community leaders about public health efforts to increase physical activity are sparse. We sought to explore, within a socio-economically disadvantaged community, residents’ and community leaders’ perceptions of physical activity (PA) interventions and issues regarding their implementation, in order to improve understanding of needs, expectations, and social/environmental factors relevant to future interventions.

Methods: Within an ongoing regeneration project (Connswater Community Greenway), in a socio-economically disadvantaged community in Belfast, we collaborated with a Community Development Agency to purposively sample leaders from public- and voluntary-sector community groups and residents. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 leaders. Residents (n=113), of both genders and a range of ages (14 to 86 years) participated in focus groups (n=14) in local facilities. Interviews and focus groups were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a thematic framework.

Results: Three main themes were identified: awareness of PA interventions; factors contributing to intervention effectiveness; and barriers to participation in PA interventions. Participants reported awareness only of interventions in which they were involved directly, highlighting a need for better communications, both inter- and intra-sectoral, and with residents. Meaningful engagement of residents in planning/organisation, tailoring to local context, supporting volunteers, providing relevant resources and an ‘exit strategy’ were perceived as important factors related to intervention effectiveness. Negative attitudes such as apathy, disappointing experiences, information with no perceived personal relevance and limited access to facilities were barriers to people participating in interventions.

Conclusions: These findings illustrate the complexity of influences on a community’s participation in PA interventions and support a social-ecological approach to promoting PA. They highlight the need for cross-sector working, effective information exchange, involving residents in bottom-up planning and providing adequate financial and social support. An in-depth understanding of a target population’s perspectives is of key importance in translating PA behaviour change theories into practice.

Transposing Musical Skill: Sonification of movement as concurrent augmented feedback enhances learning in a bimanual task

Concurrent feedback provided during acquisition can enhance performance of novel tasks. The ‘guidance hypothesis’ predicts that feedback provision leads to dependence and poor performance in its absence. However, appropriately-structured feedback information provided through sound (‘sonification’) may not be subject to this effect. We test this directly using a rhythmic bimanual shape-tracing task in which participants learned to move at a 4:3 timing ratio. Sonification of movement and demonstration was compared to two other learning conditions: (1) sonification of task demonstration alone and (2) completely silent practice (control). Sonification of movement emerged as the most effective form of practice, reaching significantly lower error scores than control. Sonification of solely the demonstration, which was expected to benefit participants by perceptually unifying task requirements, did not lead to better performance than control. Good performance was maintained by participants in the sonification condition in an immediate retention test without feedback, indicating that the use of this feedback can overcome the guidance effect. On a 24-hour retention test, performance had declined and was equal between groups. We argue that this and similar findings in the feedback literature are best explained by an ecological approach to motor skill learning which places available perceptual information at the highest level of importance.

Summary statistics, educational achievement gaps and the ecological fallacy

Summary statistics continue to play an important role in identifying and monitoring patterns and trends in educational inequalities between differing groups of pupils over time. However, this article argues that their uncritical use can also encourage the labelling of whole groups of pupils as ‘underachievers’ or ‘overachievers’ as the findings of group-level data are simply applied to individual group members, a practice commonly termed the ‘ecological fallacy’. Some of the adverse consequences of this will be outlined in relation to current debates concerning gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be argued that one way of countering this uncritical use of summary statistics and the ecological fallacy that it tends to encourage, is to make much more use of the principles and methods of what has been termed ‘exploratory data analysis’. Such an approach is illustrated through a secondary analysis of data from the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales, focusing on gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be shown that, by placing an emphasis on the graphical display of data and on encouraging researchers to describe those data more qualitatively, such an approach represents an essential addition to the use of simple summary statistics and helps to avoid the limitations associated with them.

An Affordance Based Approach to Decision Making in Sport: Discussing a Novel Methodological Framework

Decision making is a fundamental clement of any sport, particularly open, fast, dynamic team sports such as football, basketball and rugby. At the elite level, athletes appear to consistently make good decisions in situations that are highly temporally constrained. To further understand how this is done has been the aim of researchers within the perception-action field for several decades. The purpose of this article is to present novel contributions, both theoretical and methodological, that are pushing the boundaries of this area of research. The theoretical framework (Ecological psychology) within which the work is posited will be described, followed by a description of Virtual Reality (VR) technology and how it relates to the theoretical aims. Finally, an applied example will be summarised in order to demonstrate how the theoretical approach and the methodological approach come together in practice.

Biodiversity and ecosystem processes in shallow coastal waters: an experimental approach

The relationship between biodiversity and ecological processes is currently the focus of considerable research effort, made all the more urgent by the rate of biodiversity loss world-wide. Rigorous experimental approaches to this question have been dominated by terrestrial ecologists, but shallow-water marine systems offer great opportunities by virtue of their relative ease of manipulation, fast response times and well-understood effects of macrofauna on sediment processes. In this paper, we describe a series of experiments whereby species richness has been manipulated in a controlled way and the concentrations of nutrients (ammonium, nitrate and phosphate) in the overlying water measured under these different treatments. The results indicate variable effects of species and location on ecosystem processes, and are discussed in the context of emerging mainstream ecological theory on biodiversity and ecosystem relations. Extensions of the application of the experimental approach to species-rich, large-scale benthic systems are discussed and the potential for novel analyses of existing data sets is highlighted. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On the dimensionality of ecological stability

Ecological stability is touted as a complex and multifaceted concept, including components such as variability, resistance, resilience, persistence and robustness. Even though a complete appreciation of the effects of perturbations on ecosystems requires the simultaneous measurement of these multiple components of stability, most ecological research has focused on one or a few of those components analysed in isolation. Here, we present a new view of ecological stability that recognises explicitly the non-independence of components of stability. This provides an approach for simplifying the concept of stability. We illustrate the concept and approach using results from a field experiment, and show that the effective dimensionality of ecological stability is considerably lower than if the various components of stability were unrelated. However, strong perturbations can modify, and even decouple, relationships among individual components of stability. Thus, perturbations not only increase the dimensionality of stability but they can also alter the relationships among components of stability in different ways. Studies that focus on single forms of stability in isolation therefore risk underestimating significantly the potential of perturbations to destabilise ecosystems. In contrast, application of the multidimensional stability framework that we propose gives a far richer understanding of how communities respond to perturbations.

Identifying functional stakeholder clusters to maximise communication for the ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Interaction with ecological models can improve stakeholder participation in fisheries management. Problems exist in efficiently communicating outputs to stakeholders and an objective method of structuring stakeholder differences is lacking. This paper aims to inform the design of a multi-user communication interface for fisheries management by identifying functional stakeholder groups. Intuitive categorisation of stakeholders, derived from survey responses, is contrasted with an Evidence-Based method derived from analysis of stakeholder literature. Intuitive categorisation relies on interpretation and professional judgement when categorising stakeholders among conventional stakeholder groups. Evidence-Based categorisation quantitatively characterises each stakeholder with a vector of four management objective interest-strength values (Yield, Employment, Profit and Ecosystem Preservation). Survey respondents agreed little in forming intuitive groups and the groups were poorly defined and heterogeneous in interests. In contrast the Evidence-Based clusters were well defined and largely homogeneous, so more useful for identifying functional relations with model outputs. The categorisations lead to two different clusterings of stakeholders and suggest unhelpful stereotyping of stakeholders may occur with the Intuitive categorisation method. Stakeholder clusters based on literature-evidence show a high degree of common interests among clusters and is encouraging for those seeking to maximise dialogue and consensus forming. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

Understanding macroalgal dispersal in a complex hydrodynamic environment: a combined population genetic and physical modelling approach

Gene flow in macroalgal populations can be strongly influenced by spore or gamete dispersal. This, in turn, is influenced by a convolution of the effects of current flow and specific plant reproductive strategies. Although several studies have demonstrated genetic variability in macroalgal populations over a wide range of spatial scales, the associated current data have generally been poorly resolved spatially and temporally. In this study, we used a combination of population genetic analyses and high-resolution hydrodynamic modelling to investigate potential connectivity between populations of the kelp Laminaria digitata in the Strangford Narrows, a narrow channel characterized by strong currents linking the large semi-enclosed sea lough, Strangford Lough, to the Irish Sea. Levels of genetic structuring based on six microsatellite markers were very low, indicating high levels of gene flow and a pattern of isolation-by-distance, where populations are more likely to exchange migrants with geographically proximal populations, but with occasional long-distance dispersal. This was confirmed by the particle tracking model, which showed that, while the majority of spores settle near the release site, there is potential for dispersal over several kilometres. This combined population genetic and modelling approach suggests that the complex hydrodynamic environment at the entrance to Strangford Lough can facilitate dispersal on a scale exceeding that proposed for L. digitata in particular, and the majority of macroalgae in general. The study demonstrates the potential of integrated physical–biological approaches for the prediction of ecological changes resulting from factors such as anthropogenically induced coastal zone changes.

Assessing the distribution of social-ecological resilience and risk: Ireland as a case study of the uneven impact of famine

Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.

Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Covering over the cracks in conservation assessments at EU interfaces: A cross-jurisdictional ecoregion scale approach using the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra)

Throughout the European Union, the EC Habitats Directive requires that member states undertake national surveillance of designated species. Despite biological connections between-populations across-borders, national assessments need not be co-ordinated in any way. We conducted a trans-boundary assessment of the status of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) aimed at providing consistency across a single biogeographical unit, i.e. the island of Ireland, comprising two states, i.e. the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland). Our aim was to ensure consistency with previous assessments conducted separately in each state, and permit each Government to fulfil their separate statutory reporting commitments. The species range increased by 23% from 1996–2006 and 2007–11. The population estimate of 9400 [95%CI 8700–12,200] breeding females during 2010/11 was not significantly different from 8300 [95%CI 7600–9800] breeding females established as a baseline during 1981–82. Modelling of species-habitat associations suggested that available habitat was not limiting and no putative pressures recorded at sites surveyed negatively affected species occurrence. Thus, under the statutory parameters for assessing a species’ conservation status, i.e. range, population, habitat and future prospects, the otter was judged to be in ‘Favourable’ status throughout Ireland and in both discrete political jurisdictions. Thus, we provide a trans-boundary test case for EU member states that share habitats and species across ecoregions, ensuring conservation assessment data are standardised, synchronised, spatially consistent and, therefore, biologically relevant without compromising legal and administrative autonomy within separate jurisdictions.

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species' vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom-up directed, but not for top-down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top-down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.