A Dynamic Factor Approach to Mortality Modelling

Longevity risk has become one of the major risks facing the insurance and pensions markets globally. The trade in longevity risk is underpinned by accurate forecasting of mortality rates. Using techniques from macroeconomic forecasting, we propose a dynamic factor model of mortality that fits and forecasts mortality rates parsimoniously.We compare the forecasting quality of this model and of existing models and find that the dynamic factor model generally provides superior forecasts when applied to international mortality data. We also show that existing multifactorial models have superior fit but their forecasting performance worsens as more factors are added. The dynamic factor approach used here can potentially be further improved upon by applying an appropriate stopping rule for the number of static and dynamic factors. 

Dynamic, in situ optical, magnetic and magneto-optical monitoring of the growth of Co/Au and Pd/Co/Au multilayer systems

The growth of magnetron sputtered Co/Au and Pd/Co/Au superlattices on Au and Pd buffer layers, deposited onto glass substrates, has been monitored optically and magneto-optically in real time, using rotating analyser ellipsometry and Kerr polarimetry, at a wavelength of 633 nm. The magneto-optical traces, combined with ex situ and in situ hysteresis loops, provide a detailed and informative fingerprint of the optical and magnetic properties of the films as they evolve during growth. For Co/Au, oscillations in the polar magneto-optical effect developed during the deposition of An overlayers on Co and these may be attributed to quantum well states. However, the hysteresis measurements show that the magnetic field required to maintain saturation magnetization throughout the experiment was larger than available in situ, introducing a degree of confusion concerning the interpretation of the data. This problem was overcome by the incorporation of Pd layers into the Co/Au structure, thereby eliminating variation in magnetic orientation during growth of the Au layers as a contributory factor to the observations.

The human synovial fluid proteome: A key factor in the pathology of joint disease

This review aims to summarise our knowledge to date on the protein complement of the synovial fluid (S F). The tissues, structure and pathophysiology of the synovial joint are briefly described. The salient features of the S F proteome, how it is composed and the influence of arthritic disease are highlighted and discussed. The concentrations of proteins that have been detected and quantified in SF are drawn together from the literature on osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis. The measurements are plotted to give a perspective on the dynamic range of protein levels within the SF. Approaches to proteomic analysis of SF to date are discussed along with their findings. From the recent literature reviewed within, it is becoming increasingly clear that analysis of the SF proteome as a whole, could deliver the most valuable differential diagnostic fingerprints of a number of arthritic disorders. Further development of proteomic platforms could characterise prognostic profiles to improve the cliniciads ability to resolve unremitting disease by existing and novel therapeutics.

Dynamic oscillation of translation and stress granule formation mark the cellular response to virus infection

Virus infection-induced global protein synthesis suppression is linked to assembly of stress granules (SGs), cytosolic aggregates of stalled translation preinitiation complexes. To study long-term stress responses, we developed an imaging approach for extended observation and analysis of SG dynamics during persistent hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In combination with type 1 interferon, HCV infection induces highly dynamic assembly/disassembly of cytoplasmic SGs, concomitant with phases of active and stalled translation, delayed cell division, and prolonged cell survival. Double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), independent of viral replication, is sufficient to trigger these oscillations. Translation initiation factor eIF2a phosphorylation by protein kinase R mediates SG formation and translation arrest. This is antagonized by the upregulation of GADD34, the regulatory subunit of protein phosphatase 1 dephosphorylating eIF2a. Stress response oscillation is a general mechanism to prevent long-lasting translation repression and a conserved host cell reaction to multiple RNA viruses, which HCV may exploit to establish persistence.

Regulation of the pollen-specific actin-depolymerizing factor LIADF1

Pollen tube growth is dependent on a dynamic actin cytoskeleton, suggesting that actin-regulating proteins are involved. We have examined the regulation of the lily pollen-specific actin-depolymerizing factor (ADF) LIADF1. Its actin binding and depolymerizing activity is pH sensitive, inhibited by certain phosphoinositides, but not controlled by phosphorylation. Compared with its F-actin binding properties, its low activity in depolymerization assays has been used to explain why pollen ADF decorates F-actin in pollen grains. This low activity is incompatible with a role in increasing actin dynamics necessary to promote pollen tube growth. We have identified a plant homolog of actin-interacting protein, AIP1, which enhances the depolymerization of F-actin in the presence of LIADF1 by similar to60%. Both pollen ADF and pollen AIP1 bind F-actin in pollen grains but are mainly cytoplasmic in pollen tubes. Our results suggest that together these proteins remodel actin filaments as pollen grains enter and exit dormancy.

A computational intelligent approach to multi-factor analysis of violent crime information systems

Various scientific studies have explored the causes of violent behaviour from different perspectives, with psychological tests, in particular, applied to the analysis of crime factors. The relationship between bi-factors has also been extensively studied including the link between age and crime. In reality, many factors interact to contribute to criminal behaviour and as such there is a need to have a greater level of insight into its complex nature. In this article we analyse violent crime information systems containing data on psychological, environmental and genetic factors. Our approach combines elements of rough set theory with fuzzy logic and particle swarm optimisation to yield an algorithm and methodology that can effectively extract multi-knowledge from information systems. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms alternative genetic algorithm and dynamic reduct-based techniques for reduct identification and has the added advantage of identifying multiple reducts and hence multi-knowledge (rules). Identified rules are consistent with classical statistical analysis of violent crime data and also reveal new insights into the interaction between several factors. As such, the results are helpful in improving our understanding of the factors contributing to violent crime and in highlighting the existence of hidden and intangible relationships between crime factors.

Modelling Static and Dynamic FRP-Concrete Bond Behaviour Using a Local Concrete Damage Model

This paper presents a study on the bond behaviour of FRP-concrete bonded joints under static and dynamic loadings, by developing a meso-scale finite element model using the K&C concrete damage model in LS-DYNA. A significant number of single shear experiments under static pull-off loading were modelled with an extensive parametric study covering key factors in the K&C model, including the crack band width, the compressive fracture energy and the shear dilatation factor. It is demonstrated that the developed model can satisfactorily simulate the static debonding behaviour, in terms of mesh objectivity, the load-carrying capacity and the local bond-slip behaviour, provided that proper consideration is given to the selection of crack band width and shear dilatation factor. A preliminary study of the effect of the dynamic loading rate on the debonding behaviour was also conducted by considering a dynamic increase factor (DIF) for the concrete strength as a function of strain rate. It is shown that a higher loading rate leads to a higher load-carrying capacity, a longer effective bond length, and a larger damaged area of concrete in the single shear loading scenario.

Photo-dynamic biocidal action of methylene blue and hydrogen peroxide on the cyanobacterium Synechococcus leopoliensis under visible light irradiation

Biofilm growth on stone surfaces is a significant contributing factor to stone biodeterioration. Current market based biocides are hazardous to the environment and to public health. We have investigated the photo-dynamic effect of methylene blue (MB) in the presence of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) on the destruction of the cyanobacterium Synechococcus leopoliensis (S. leopoliensis) under irradiation with visible light. Data presented in this paper illustrate that illumination of S. leopoliensis in the presence of a photosensitiser (MB) and H₂O₂ results in the decomposition of both the cyanobacterium and the photosensitiser. The presence of MB and H₂O₂ affects the viability of the photosensitiser and the cyanobacterium with the fluorescence of both decreasing by 80% over the irradiation time investigated. The photo-dynamic effect was observed under aerobic and anaerobic conditions indicating that oxygen was not necessary for the process. This novel combination could be effective for the remediation of biofilm colonised stone surfaces

Strength reduction of till under dynamic pore pressure condition

Cuttings in heavily overconsolidated clays are known to be susceptible to progressive deformation caused by creep and fatigue that usually begins at the toe of the slope. The progressive deformation leads to strength reduction with time at constant stress (or called softening) and could be accelerated by fluctuation of groundwater level associated with more extreme rainfall events predicted through climate change. The purpose of this paper is to assess the mechanism of progressive deformation due to creep and fatigue using element testing on samples of till. The samples were subjected to fully drained loading and the deviator stresses were held constant at various percentages of peak failure stress, while the pore water pressure was kept static or dynamic (fluctuating ±5 kPa) over a period of time. The results have shown that the samples experienced significant deformation even at a higher factor of safety (i.e. the failure deviator stress/deviator stress at which the pore water pressure was fluctuated) under pore water pressure dynamics.

Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.