Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Using time-to-contact information to assess potential collision modulates both visual and temporal prediction networks

Accurate estimates of the time-to-contact (TTC) of approaching objects are crucial for survival. We used an ecologically valid driving simulation to compare and contrast the neural substrates of egocentric (head-on approach) and allocentric (lateral approach) TTC tasks in a fully factorial, event-related fMRI design. Compared to colour control tasks, both egocentric and allocentric TTC tasks activated left ventral premotor cortex/frontal operculum and inferior parietal cortex, the same areas that have previously been implicated in temporal attentional orienting. Despite differences in visual and cognitive demands, both TTC and temporal orienting paradigms encourage the use of temporally predictive information to guide behaviour, suggesting these areas may form a core network for temporal prediction. We also demonstrated that the temporal derivative of the perceptual index tau (tau-dot) held predictive value for making collision judgements and varied inversely with activity in primary visual cortex (V1). Specifically, V1 activity increased with the increasing likelihood of reporting a collision, suggesting top-down attentional modulation of early visual processing areas as a function of subjective collision. Finally, egocentric viewpoints provoked a response bias for reporting collisions, rather than no-collisions, reflecting increased caution for head-on approaches. Associated increases in SMA activity suggest motor preparation mechanisms were engaged, despite the perceptual nature of the task.

Phase Behaviour, Interactions, and Structural Studies of (Amines+Ionic Liquids) Binary Mixtures

We present a study on the phase equilibrium behaviour of binary mixtures containing two 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide-based ionic liquids, [Cnmim] [NTf2] (n=2 and 4), mixed with diethylamine or triethylamine as a function of temperature and composition using different experimental techniques. Based on this work, two systems showing an LCST and one system with a possible hourglass shape are measured. Their phase behaviours are then correlated and predicted by using Flory–Huggins equations and the UNIQUAC method implemented in Aspen. The potential of the COSMO-RS methodology to predict the phase equilibria was also tested for the binary systems studied. However, this methodology is unable to predict the trends obtained experimentally, limiting its use for systems involving amines in ionic liquids. The liquid-state structure of the binary mixture ([C2mim] [NTf2]+diethylamine) is also investigated by molecular dynamics simulation and neutron diffraction. Finally, the absorption of gaseous ethane by the ([C2mim][NTf2]+diethylamine) binary mixture is determined and compared with that observed in the pure solvents.

An Integration Methodology for Automated Recurring Cost Prediction using Digital Manufacturing Technology

The need to account for the effect of design decisions on manufacture and the impact of manufacturing cost on the life cycle cost of any product are well established. In this context, digital design and manufacturing solutions have to be further developed to facilitate and automate the integration of cost as one of the major driver in the product life cycle management. This article is to present an integration methodology for implementing cost estimation capability within a digital manufacturing environment. A digital manufacturing structure of knowledge databases are set out and the ontology of assembly and part costing that is consistent with the structure is provided. Although the methodology is currently used for recurring cost prediction, it can be well applied to other functional developments, such as process planning. A prototype tool is developed to integrate both assembly time cost and parts manufacturing costs within the same digital environment. An industrial example is used to validate this approach.

3-D micromechanical model for predicting the elastic behaviour of woven laminates

This paper presents an analytical model for the prediction of the elastic behaviour of plain-weave fabric composites. The fabric is a hybrid plain-weave with different materials and undulations in the warp and weft directions. The derivation of the effective material properties is based on classical laminate theory (CLT).

The theoretical predictions have been compared with experimental results and predictions using alternative models available in the literature. Composite laminates were manufactured using the resin infusion under flexible tooling (RIFT) process and tested under tension and in-plane shear loading to validate the model. A good correlation between theoretical and experimental results for the prediction of in-plane properties was obtained. The limitations of the existing theoretical models based on classical laminate theory (CLT) for predicting the out-of-plane mechanical properties are presented and discussed. 

The behaviour of damage tolerant hat-stiffened composite panels loaded in uniaxial compression

Damage tolerant hat-stiffened thin-skinned composite panels with and without a centrally located circular cutout, under uniaxial compression loading, were investigated experimentally and analytically. These panels incorporated a highly postbuckling design characterised by two integral stiffeners separated by a large skin bay with a high width to skin-thickness ratio. In both configurations, the skin initially buckled into three half-wavelengths and underwent two mode-shape changes; the first a gradual mode change characterised by a central deformation with double curvature and the second a dynamic snap to five half-wavelengths. The use of standard path-following non-linear finite element analysis did not consistently capture the dynamic mode change and an approximate solution for the prediction of mode-changes using a Marguerre-type Rayleigh-Ritz energy method is presented. Shortcomings with both methods of analysis are discussed and improvements suggested. The panels failed catastrophically and their strength was limited by the local buckling strength of the hat stiffeners. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power back-off behaviour of high-efficiency power-combining Class-E amplifier

Power back-off performances of the modified power-combining Class-E amplifier under different amplitudemodulation schemes such as envelope elimination and restoration (EER) and envelope tracking (ET) are experimentally assessed in this paper. The modified output load network adopting three-harmonic terminations technique eliminates the need for additional lossy filtering section in the transmitter chain. Small dc-feed inductances rather than massive RF chokes as in the classic Class-E amplifier are used so as to increase the modulation bandwidth and therefore improve the linearity of the EER transmitter. High efficiency over a wide dynamic range using amplitude modulation through drain-voltage control (EER) was achieved and this agrees well with the Class-E theoretical prediction. When the PA was used within the ET scheme, an increase of average drain efficiency of as high as 40% with respect to the CW excitation was obtained for a multi-carrier input signal with 12dB peak-to-average power ratio. © 2011 Institut fur Mikrowellen.

Scalable black-box prediction models for multi-dimensional adaptation on NUMA multi-cores

This paper presents a scalable, statistical ‘black-box’ model for predicting the performance of parallel programs on multi-core non-uniform memory access (NUMA) systems. We derive a model with low overhead, by reducing data collection and model training time. The model can accurately predict the behaviour of parallel applications in response to changes in their concurrency, thread layout on NUMA nodes, and core voltage and frequency. We present a framework that applies the model to achieve significant energy and energy-delay-square (ED2) savings (9% and 25%, respectively) along with performance improvement (10% mean) on an actual 16-core NUMA system running realistic application workloads. Our prediction model proves substantially more accurate than previous efforts.

Review of constitutive models for describing the time dependent behaviour of soft clays

Different classes of constitutive models have been proposed to capture the time-dependent behaviour of soft soil (creep, stress relaxation, rate dependency). This paper critically reviews many of the models developed based on understanding of the time dependent stress-strain-stress rate-strain rate behaviour of soils and viscoplasticity in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Some discussion is also made on the numerical implementation aspects of these models. Typical findings from numerical analyses of geotechnical structures constructed on soft soils are also discussed. The general elastic viscoplastic (EVP) models can roughly be divided into two categories: models based on the concept of overstress and models based on non-stationary flow surface theory. Although general in structure, both categories have their own strengths and shortcomings. This review indicates that EVP analysis is yet to be vastly used by the geotechnical engineers, apparently due to the mathematical complication involved in the formulation of the constitutive models, unconvincing benefit in terms of the accuracy of performance prediction, requirement of additional soil parameter(s), difficulties in determining them, and the necessity of excessive computing resources and time. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

The prediction of process-induced deformation in a thermoplastic composite in support of manufacturing simulation

Digital manufacturing techniques can simulate complex assembly sequences using computer-aided design-based, as-designed' part forms, and their utility has been proven across several manufacturing sectors including the ship building, automotive and aerospace industries. However, the reality of working with actual parts and composite components, in particular, is that geometric variability arising from part forming or processing conditions can cause problems during assembly as the as-manufactured' form differs from the geometry used for any simulated build validation. In this work, a simulation strategy is presented for the study of the process-induced deformation behaviour of a 90 degrees, V-shaped angle. Test samples were thermoformed using pre-consolidated carbon fibre-reinforced polyphenylene sulphide, and the processing conditions were re-created in a virtual environment using the finite element method to determine finished component angles. A procedure was then developed for transferring predicted part forms from the finite element outputs to a digital manufacturing platform for the purpose of virtual assembly validation using more realistic part geometry. Ultimately, the outcomes from this work can be used to inform process condition choices, material configuration and tool design, so that the dimensional gap between as-designed' and as-manufactured' part forms can be reduced in the virtual environment.

Morphology and compression behaviour of biodegradable scaffolds produced by the sintering process

Porous poly(L-lactic acid) (PLA) scaffolds of 85 per cent and 90 per cent porosity are prepared using polymer sintering and porogen leaching method. Different weight fractions of 10 per cent, 30 per cent, and 50 per cent of hydroxyapatite (HA) are added to the PLA to control the acidity and degradation rate. The three-dimensional (3D) morphology and surface porosity are tested using micro-computer tomography (micro-CT), optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results indicate that the surface porosity does not change on the addition of HA. The micro-CT examinations show a slight decrease in the pore size and increase in the wall thickness accompanied by reduced anisotropy for the scaffolds containing HA. Scanning electron micrographs show detectable interconnected pores for the scaffold with pure PLA. Addition of the HA results in agglomeration of the HA particles and reduced leaching of the porogen. Compression tests of the scaffold identify three stages in the stress-strain curve. The addition of HA results in a reduction in the modulus of the scaffold at the first stage of elastic bending of the wall, but this is reversed for the second and third stages of collapse of the wall and densification in the compression tests. In the scaffolds with 85 per cent porosity, the addition of a high percentage of HA could result in 70 per cent decrease in stiffness in the first stage, 200 per cent increase in stiffness in the second stage, and 20 per cent increase in stiffness in the third stage. The results of these tests are compared with the Gibson cellular material model that is proposed for prediction of the behaviour of cellular material under compression. The pH and molecular weight changes are tracked for the scaffolds within a period of 35 days. The addition of HA keeps the pH in the alkaline region, which results in higher rate of degradation at an early period of observation, followed by a reduced rate of degradation later in the process. The final molecular weight is higher for the scaffolds with HA than for scaffolds of pure PLA. The manufactured scaffolds offer acceptable properties in terms of the pore size range and interconnectivity of the pores and porosity for non-load-bearing bone graft substitute; however, improvement to the mixing of the phases of PLA and HA is required to achieve better integrity of the composite scaffolds. © 2008 IMechE.

Impact of finite element idealisation on the prediction of welded fuselage stiffened panel buckling

Lap joints are widely used in the manufacture of stiffened panels and influence local panel sub-component stability, defining buckling unit dimensions and boundary conditions. Using the Finite Element method it is possible to model joints in great detail and predict panel buckling behaviour with accuracy. However, when modelling large panel structures such detailed analysis becomes computationally expensive. Moreover, the impact of local behaviour on global panel performance may reduce as the scale of the modelled structure increases. Thus this study presents coupled computational and experimental analysis, aimed at developing relationships between modelling fidelity and the size of the modelled structure, when the global static load to cause initial buckling is the required analysis output. Small, medium and large specimens representing welded lap-joined fuselage panel structure are examined. Two element types, shell and solid-shell, are employed to model each specimen, highlighting the impact of idealisation on the prediction of welded stiffened panel initial skin buckling.

Electric shock causes physiological stress responses in shore crabs, consistent with prediction of pain

Animal pain is defined by a series of expectations or criteria, one of which is that there should be a physiological stress response associated with noxious stimuli. While crustacean stress responses have been demonstrated they are typically preceded by escape behaviour and thus the physiological change might be attributed to the behaviour rather than a pain experience. We found higher levels of stress as measured by lactate in shore crabs exposed to brief electric shock than non-shocked controls. However, shocked crabs showed more vigorous behaviour than controls. We then matched crabs with the same level of behaviour and still found that shocked crabs had stronger stress response compared with controls. The finding of the stress response, coupled with previous findings of long-Term motivational change and avoidance learning, fulfils the criteria expected of a pain experience.