Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials

Background: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk.
Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10?801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease.
Findings: Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (=20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease.
Interpretation: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Discrete cyclic di-GMP-dependent control of bacterial predation versus axenic growth in Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus

Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus is a Delta-proteobacterium that oscillates between free-living growth and predation on Gram-negative bacteria including important pathogens of man, animals and plants. After entering the prey periplasm, killing the prey and replicating inside the prey bdelloplast, several motile B. bacteriovorus progeny cells emerge. The B. bacteriovorus HD100 genome encodes numerous proteins predicted to be involved in signalling via the secondary messenger cyclic di-GMP (c-di-GMP), which is known to affect bacterial lifestyle choices. We investigated the role of c-di-GMP signalling in B. bacteriovorus, focussing on the five GGDEF domain proteins that are predicted to function as diguanylyl cyclases initiating c-di-GMP signalling cascades. Inactivation of individual GGDEF domain genes resulted in remarkably distinct phenotypes. Deletion of dgcB (Bd0742) resulted in a predation impaired, obligately axenic mutant, while deletion of dgcC (Bd1434) resulted in the opposite, obligately predatory mutant. Deletion of dgcA (Bd0367) abolished gliding motility, producing bacteria capable of predatory invasion but unable to leave the exhausted prey. Complementation was achieved with wild type dgc genes, but not with GGAAF versions. Deletion of cdgA (Bd3125) substantially slowed predation; this was restored by wild type complementation. Deletion of dgcD (Bd3766) had no observable phenotype. In vitro assays showed that DgcA, DgcB, and DgcC were diguanylyl cyclases. CdgA lacks enzymatic activity but functions as a c-di-GMP receptor apparently in the DgcB pathway. Activity of DgcD was not detected. Deletion of DgcA strongly decreased the extractable c-di-GMP content of axenic Bdellovibrio cells. We show that c-di-GMP signalling pathways are essential for both the free-living and predatory lifestyles of B. bacteriovorus and that obligately predatory dgcC- can be made lacking a propensity to survive without predation of bacterial pathogens and thus possibly useful in anti-pathogen applications. In contrast to many studies in other bacteria, Bdellovibrio shows specificity and lack of overlap in c-di-GMP signalling pathways.