Technology Assessment for a Complex Aircraft System using Technology Scenarios

Military decision makers need to understand and assess the benefits and consequences of their decisions in order to make cost efficient, timely, and successful choices. Technology selection is one such critical decision, especially when considering the design or retrofit of a complex system, such as an aircraft. An integrated and systematic methodology that will support decision-making between technology alternatives and options while assessing the consequences of such decisions is a key enabler. This paper presents and demonstrates, through application to a notional medium range short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft, one such enabler: the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The goal of the TIF process is to explore both generic, undefined areas of technology, as well as specific technologies, and assess their potential impacts. This is actualized through the development and use of technology scenarios, and allows the designer to determine where to allocate resources for further technology definition and refinement, as well as provide useful design information. The paper particularly discusses the use of technology scenarios and demonstrates their use in the exploration of seven technologies of varying technology readiness levels.

Sensitized terbium(iii) macrocyclic-phthalimide complexes as luminescent pH switches

Four new macrocyclic-phthalimide ligands were synthesised via the coupling of N-(3-bromopropyl)phthalimide either to cyclen (1,4,7,10- tetraazacyclododecane) itself or its carboxylate-functionalized analogues, and photophysical studies were carried out on their corresponding Tb(iii) complexes in aqueous media as a function of pH. Luminescence intensities of Tb·L^1a-Tb·L^3a were in 'switched off' mode under acidic conditions (pH < 4), and were activated on progression to basic conditions as the phthalimido functions therein were hydrolysed to their corresponding phthalamates Tb·L^1b-Tb·L^3b. Emission of phthalamate-based macrocyclic Tb(iii) complexes Tb·L ^1b-Tb·L^3b was in 'switched on' mode between pH 4 and 11, exhibiting high quantum yields (Φ) and long lifetimes (τ) of the order of milliseconds at pH ∼ 6. Tb(iii) emissions were found to decline with increasing number of chromophores. The values of Φ and τ were 46% and 2.4 ms respectively for Tb·L^1b at pH ∼ 6 when activated. This is the best pH-dependent sensor based on a Tb(iii) complex reported to date, benefiting from the macrocyclic architecture of the ligand. © 2013 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Dielectronic recombination of W 35 +

Accurate data for dielectronic recombination (DR) of the ions of tungsten are of significant interest in the modelling of tungsten impurity transport and radiative power loss in current tokamaks and in ITER. However, the complexity of the atomic structure for many of these ions makes level-resolved DR calculations untenable on currently available computers, especially for open d- and f-subshell ions. The majority of DR data presently available for ITER modelling are based on an average-atom approximation. To improve upon these baseline calculations, we investigate the use of the configuration-average distorted-wave (CADW) method to calculate DR rate coefficients for complex open d-shell systems. The aim is to produce rate coefficients that are sufficiently accurate in terms of modelling, yet greatly reduced in term of computational complexity compared to level-resolved calculations. In this paper, we consider the DR of W 35 + . Initially, we carry out several large-scale level-resolved calculations for the DR associated with the 4d → 4f and 4p → 4d excitations in this ion, using both the level-resolved distorted-wave and Dirac R -matrix methods. These calculations allow us to test the validity of the CADW approach on these same excitations by comparing cross sections and rate coefficients. These comparisons demonstrate that the CADW method is relatively accurate in relation to these level-resolved methods for the temperature range for which W 35 + should exist in a collisionally ionized plasma. We then present results for CADW rate coefficients for both Δ n = 0 and Δ n = 1 excitations for this ion. This study indicates that it is now feasible to generate a much improved comprehensive set of DR data for the entire tungsten isonuclear sequence.

Optical diagnostics of micro discharge jets

Micro plasmas operated at ambient pressure with dimensions of the confining geometry in the order of a few ten micrometers to a millimeter are actually in the focus of interest due to the broad regime of applicability they offer and due to a similarly broad range of open physical questions. Here we present optical measurements within the discharge core and the effluent region of an especially developed micro discharge jet. To get an understanding of the complex system of this discharge it is important to analyse transport phenomena of energy and particles within both parts of the discharge by various highly sophisticated diagnostics. As a consequence of the limited access and the dimensions of the micro discharge most of these diagnostics are optical. Here we present diagnostics applied to determine spatially resolved absolute atomic oxygen densities as the most reactive constituent of the effluent, density maps of ozone as final reaction product of the gas chemical chain induced by the discharge and phase resolved optical emission spectroscopy yielding insight into the excitation dynamics of the discharge. (C) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA. Weinheim.

Modulation of gel formation and drug-release characteristics of lidocaine-loaded poly(vinyl alcohol)-tetraborate hydrogel systems using scavenger polyol sugars

Polyol sugars, displaying a plurality Of hydroxyl groups, were shown to modulate tetra hydroxyborate (borate) cross-linking in lidocaine hydrochloride containing poly(vinyl alcohol) scini-solid hydrogels. Without polyol, demixing of borate cross-linked PVA hydrogels into two distinct phases was noticeable upon lidocaine hydrochloride addition, preventing further use as a topical System. D-Mannitol incorporation was found to be particularly suitable in cicumventing network constriction induced by ionic and pH effects upon adding the hydrochloride salt of lidocaine. A test formulation (4% w/v lidocaine HCl, 2% W/V D-mannitol, 10% w/v PVA and 2.5%, w/v THB) was shown to constitute an effective delivery system, which was characterised by an initial burst release and a drug release mechanism dependent on temperature, changing from a diffusion-controlled system to one with the properties of a reservoir system. The novel flow properties and innocuous adhesion of PVA-tetrahydroxyborate hydrogels Support their application for drug delivery to exposed epithelial surfaces, Such as lacerated wounds. Furthermore, addition of a polyol, such as mannitol, allows incorporation of soluble salt forms of active therapeutic agents by modulation of cross-linking density. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HTS Motors in Aircraft Propulsion: Design Considerations

Current high temperature superconducting (HTS) wires exhibit high current densities enabling their use in electrical rotating machinery. The possibility of designing high power density superconducting motors operating at reasonable temperatures allows for new applications in mobile systems in which size and weight represent key design parameters. Thus, all-electric aircrafts represent a promising application for HTS motors. The design of such a complex system as an aircraft consists of a multi-variable optimization that requires computer models and advanced design procedures. This paper presents a specific sizing model of superconducting propulsion motors to be used in aircraft design. The model also takes into account the cooling system. The requirements for this application are presented in terms of power and dynamics as well as a load profile corresponding to a typical mission. We discuss the design implications of using a superconducting motor on an aircraft as well as the integration of the electrical propulsion in the aircraft, and the scaling laws derived from physics-based modeling of HTS motors.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.

An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

A revised age of AD 667-699 for the latest major eruption at Rabaul

The most recent major eruption at Rabaul was one of the largest known events at this complex system, having a VEI rating of 6. The eruption generated widespread airfall pumice lapilli and ash deposits and ignimbrites of different types. The total volume of pyroclastic material produced in the eruption exceeded 11 km3 and led to a new phase of collapse within Rabaul Caldera. Initial 14C dating of the eruptive products yielded an age of about 1400 yrs BP, and the eruption became known as the "1400 BP" eruption. Previous analyses of the timing of the eruption have linked it to events in AD 536 and AD 639. However, we have re-evaluated the age of the eruption using the Bayesian wiggle-match radiocarbon dating method, and the eruption is now thought to
have occurred in the interval AD 667-699. The only significant equatorial eruptions recorded in both Greenland and Antarctic ice during this interval are at AD 681 and AD 684, dates that coincide with frost rings in bristlecone pines of western USA in the same years. Definitively linking the Rabaul eruption to this narrow age range will require identification of Rabaul tephra in the ice records. However, it is proposed that a new working hypothesis for the timing of the most recent major eruption at Rabaul is that it occurred in the interval AD 681-684.

Maintaining a grasp on reality – Is our validation and design effort focused in the same direction?

This article examines the influence on the engineering design process of the primary objective of validation, whether it is proving a model, a technology or a product. Through the examination of a number of stiffened panel case studies, the relationships between simulation, validation, design and the final product are established and discussed. The work demonstrates the complex interactions between the original (or anticipated) design model, the analysis model, the validation activities and the product in service. The outcome shows clearly some unintended consequences. High fidelity validation test simulations require a different set of detailed parameters to accurately capture behaviour. By doing so, there is a divergence from the original computer-aided design model, intrinsically limiting the value of the validation with respect to the product. This work represents a shift from the traditional perspective of encapsulating and controlling errors between simulation and experimental test to consideration of the wider design-test process. Specifically, it is a reflection on the implications of how models are built and validated, and the effect on results and understanding of structural behaviour. This article then identifies key checkpoints in the design process and how these should be used to update the computer-aided design system parameters for a design. This work strikes at a fundamental challenge in understanding the interaction between design, certification and operation of any complex system.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

Investigating Fractured Flow from Orthopaedics to Rehabilitation

Patients often spend time as inpatients in hospitals outside their home area because of the need to access specialist services. If there is a need for ongoing care after the need for specialist care has passed, patients are transferred (or ‘repatriated’) back to the inpatient care of a hospital in their local Health and Social Care Trust. The need for bed space in specialist units means that there is pressure for this transition to occur in a timely way. We investigated the flow of patients through a trauma and orthopaedics unit using the 6M Design® framework and Vitals Charts® in order to investigate concerns about delayed repatriation. We found that repatriation was part of a complex system that had interdependent components. There was considerable variation in the number of discharges (to any destination) by day of week, with a reduction on Saturdays and Sundays. Understanding that the pressure for quicker repatriation was really due to high work-in-progress led us to model the effects of strategies to address the high work-in-progress. We found that, because only a small proportion of patients require repatriation, expediting the repatriation process by one day for each patient would only reduce WIP by an average of 1.6 patients. Reducing the average length of stay for all trauma and orthopaedics inpatients by one day would reduce the WIP by 10 patients, which would make a much greater impact on the problem of high bed occupancy. Though the smooth and timely repatriation of patients to rehabilitation units is desirable, it is unlikely that efforts to achieve this will have a substantial impact on the problem of high WIP, so other strategies will be required. We will model the effects of strategies to reduce variation in daily discharges by the day of week in a future essay.

Interactive management control via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). An empirical study in a public university hospital

Management control in public university hospitals is a challenging task because of continuous changes due to external pressures (e.g. economic pressures, stakeholder focuses and scientific progress) and internal complexities (top management turnover, shared leadership, technological evolution, and researcher oriented mission). Interactive budgeting contributed to improving vertical and horizontal communication between hospital and stakeholders and between different organizational levels. This paper describes an application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to enhance interactive budgeting in one of the biggest public university hospital in Italy. AHP improved budget allocation facilitating elicitation and formalization of units' needs. Furthermore, AHP facilitated vertical communication among manager and stakeholders, as it allowed multilevel hierarchical representation of hospital needs, and horizontal communication among staff of the same hospital, as it allowed units' need prioritization and standardization, with a scientific multi-criteria approach, without using complex mathematics. Finally, AHP allowed traceability of a complex decision making processes (as budget allocation), this aspect being of paramount importance in public sectors, where managers are called to respond to many different stakeholders about their choices.