Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Using Graph Components Derived from an Associative Concept Dictionary to Predict fMRI Neural Activation Patterns that Represent the Meaning of Nouns

In this study, we introduce an original distance definition for graphs, called the Markov-inverse-F measure (MiF). This measure enables the integration of classical graph theory indices with new knowledge pertaining to structural feature extraction from semantic networks. MiF improves the conventional Jaccard and/or Simpson indices, and reconciles both the geodesic information (random walk) and co-occurrence adjustment (degree balance and distribution). We measure the effectiveness of graph-based coefficients through the application of linguistic graph information for a neural activity recorded during conceptual processing in the human brain. Specifically, the MiF distance is computed between each of the nouns used in a previous neural experiment and each of the in-between words in a subgraph derived from the Edinburgh Word Association Thesaurus of English. From the MiF-based information matrix, a machine learning model can accurately obtain a scalar parameter that specifies the degree to which each voxel in (the MRI image of) the brain is activated by each word or each principal component of the intermediate semantic features. Furthermore, correlating the voxel information with the MiF-based principal components, a new computational neurolinguistics model with a network connectivity paradigm is created. This allows two dimensions of context space to be incorporated with both semantic and neural distributional representations.

A computational model for the cooling phase of injection moulding

This paper discusses the approaches and techniques used to build a realistic numerical model to analyse the cooling phase of the injection moulding process. The procedures employed to select an appropriate mesh and the boundary and initial conditions for the problem are discussed and justified. The final model is validated using direct comparisons with experimental results generated in an earlier study. The model is shown to be a useful tool for further studies aimed at optimising the cooling phase of the injection moulding process. Using the numerical model provides additional information relating to changes in conditions throughout the process, which otherwise could not be deduced or assessed experimentally. These results, and other benefits related to the use of the model, are also discussed in the paper. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational Verification of Two Universal Relations for Simple Ionic Liquids. Kinetic Properties of a Model 2:1 Molten Salt

Two semianalytical relations [Nature, 1996, 381, 137 and Phys. Rev. Lett. 2001, 87, 245901] predicting dynamical coefficients of simple liquids on the basis of structural properties have been tested by extensive molecular dynamics simulations for an idealized 2:1 model molten salt. In agreement with previous simulation studies, our results support the validity of the relation expressing the self-diffusion coefficient as a Function of the radial distribution functions for all thermodynamic conditions such that the system is in the ionic (ie., fully dissociated) liquid state. Deviations are apparent for high-density samples in the amorphous state and in the low-density, low-temperature range, when ions condense into AB(2) molecules. A similar relation predicting the ionic conductivity is only partially validated by our data. The simulation results, covering 210 distinct thermodynamic states, represent an extended database to tune and validate semianalytical theories of dynamical properties and provide a baseline for the interpretation of properties of more complex systems such as the room-temperature ionic liquids.

A computational model of cellular response to modulated radiation fields

Purpose:
To develop a model to describe the response of cell populations to spatially modulated radiation exposures of relevance to advanced radiotherapies.

Materials and Methods:
A Monte Carlo model of cellular radiation response was developed. This model incorporated damage from both direct radiation and intercellular communication including bystander signaling. The predictions of this model were compared to previously measured survival curves for a normal human fibroblast line (AGO1522) and prostate tumor cells (DU145) exposed to spatially modulated fields.

Results:
The model was found to be able to accurately reproduce cell survival both in populations which were directly exposed to radiation and those which were outside the primary treatment field. The model predicts that the bystander effect makes a significant contribution to cell killing even in uniformly irradiated cells. The bystander effect contribution varies strongly with dose, falling from a high of 80% at low doses to 25% and 50% at 4 Gy for AGO1522 and DU145 cells, respectively. This was verified using the inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibitor aminoguanidine to inhibit the bystander effect in cells exposed to different doses, which showed significantly larger reductions in cell killing at lower doses.

Conclusions:
The model presented in this work accurately reproduces cell survival following modulated radiation exposures, both in and out of the primary treatment field, by incorporating a bystander component. In addition, the model suggests that the bystander effect is responsible for a significant portion of cell killing in uniformly irradiated cells, 50% and 70% at doses of 2 Gy in AGO1522 and DU145 cells, respectively. This description is a significant departure from accepted radiobiological models and may have a significant impact on optimization of treatment planning approaches if proven to be applicable in vivo.

A Fast Nonlinear Model Identification Method

The identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using linear-in-the-parameters models is studied. A fast recursive algorithm (FRA) is proposed to select both the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. Unlike orthogonal least squares (OLS) method, FRA solves the least-squares problem recursively over the model order without requiring matrix decomposition. The computational complexity of both algorithms is analyzed, along with their numerical stability. The new method is shown to require much less computational effort and is also numerically more stable than OLS.

Stochastic protein folding simulation in the three-dimensional HP-model

We present results from three-dimensional protein folding simulations in the HP-model on ten benchmark problems. The simulations are executed by a simulated annealing-based algorithm with a time-dependent cooling schedule. The neighbourhood relation is determined by the pull-move set. The results provide experimental evidence that the maximum depth D of local minima of the underlying energy landscape can be upper bounded by D < n(2/3). The local search procedure employs the stopping criterion (In/delta)(D/gamma) where m is an estimation of the average number of neighbouring conformations, gamma relates to the mean of non-zero differences of the objective function for neighbouring conformations, and 1-delta is the confidence that a minimum conformation has been found. The bound complies with the results obtained for the ten benchmark problems. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model selection approaches for non-linear system identification: a review

The identification of non-linear systems using only observed finite datasets has become a mature research area over the last two decades. A class of linear-in-the-parameter models with universal approximation capabilities have been intensively studied and widely used due to the availability of many linear-learning algorithms and their inherent convergence conditions. This article presents a systematic overview of basic research on model selection approaches for linear-in-the-parameter models. One of the fundamental problems in non-linear system identification is to find the minimal model with the best model generalisation performance from observational data only. The important concepts in achieving good model generalisation used in various non-linear system-identification algorithms are first reviewed, including Bayesian parameter regularisation and models selective criteria based on the cross validation and experimental design. A significant advance in machine learning has been the development of the support vector machine as a means for identifying kernel models based on the structural risk minimisation principle. The developments on the convex optimisation-based model construction algorithms including the support vector regression algorithms are outlined. Input selection algorithms and on-line system identification algorithms are also included in this review. Finally, some industrial applications of non-linear models are discussed.

Comparison of two construction algorithms for local model networks

The divide-and-conquer approach of local model (LM) networks is a common engineering approach to the identification of a complex nonlinear dynamical system. The global representation is obtained from the weighted sum of locally valid, simpler sub-models defined over small regions of the operating space. Constructing such networks requires the determination of appropriate partitioning and the parameters of the LMs. This paper focuses on the structural aspect of LM networks. It compares the computational requirements and performances of the Johansen and Foss (J&F) and LOLIMOT tree-construction algorithms. Several useful and important modifications to each algorithm are proposed. The modelling performances are evaluated using real data from a pilot plant of a pH neutralization process. Results show that while J&F achieves a more accurate nonlinear representation of the pH process, LOLIMOT requires significantly less computational effort.

The energetics of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111): A computational analysis

The carbazole moiety is a component of many important pharmaceuticals including anticancer and anti-HIV agents and is commonly utilized in the production of modern polymeric materials with novel photophysical and electronic properties. Simple carbazoles are generally produced via the aromatization of the respective tetrahydrocarbazole (THCZ). In this work, density functional theory calculations are used to model the reaction pathway of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111). The geometry of each of the intermediate surface species has been determined and how each structure interacts with the metal surface addressed. The reaction energies and barriers of each of the elementary surface reactions have also been calculated, and a detailed analysis of the energetic trends performed. Our calculations have shown that the surface intermediates remain fixed to the surface via the aromatic ring in a manner similar to that of THCZ. Moreover, the aliphatic ring becomes progressively more planer with the dissociation of each subsequent hydrogen atom. Analysis of the reaction energy profile has revealed that the trend in reaction barriers is determined by the two factors: (i) the strength of the dissociating ring-H bond and (ii) the subsequent gain in energy due to the geometric relaxation of the aliphatic ring. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Population-based local search for protein folding simulation in the MJ energy model and cubic lattices

We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however. PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.