Technology Assessment for a Complex Aircraft System using Technology Scenarios

Military decision makers need to understand and assess the benefits and consequences of their decisions in order to make cost efficient, timely, and successful choices. Technology selection is one such critical decision, especially when considering the design or retrofit of a complex system, such as an aircraft. An integrated and systematic methodology that will support decision-making between technology alternatives and options while assessing the consequences of such decisions is a key enabler. This paper presents and demonstrates, through application to a notional medium range short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft, one such enabler: the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The goal of the TIF process is to explore both generic, undefined areas of technology, as well as specific technologies, and assess their potential impacts. This is actualized through the development and use of technology scenarios, and allows the designer to determine where to allocate resources for further technology definition and refinement, as well as provide useful design information. The paper particularly discusses the use of technology scenarios and demonstrates their use in the exploration of seven technologies of varying technology readiness levels.

An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

Optical diagnostics of micro discharge jets

Micro plasmas operated at ambient pressure with dimensions of the confining geometry in the order of a few ten micrometers to a millimeter are actually in the focus of interest due to the broad regime of applicability they offer and due to a similarly broad range of open physical questions. Here we present optical measurements within the discharge core and the effluent region of an especially developed micro discharge jet. To get an understanding of the complex system of this discharge it is important to analyse transport phenomena of energy and particles within both parts of the discharge by various highly sophisticated diagnostics. As a consequence of the limited access and the dimensions of the micro discharge most of these diagnostics are optical. Here we present diagnostics applied to determine spatially resolved absolute atomic oxygen densities as the most reactive constituent of the effluent, density maps of ozone as final reaction product of the gas chemical chain induced by the discharge and phase resolved optical emission spectroscopy yielding insight into the excitation dynamics of the discharge. (C) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA. Weinheim.

HTS Motors in Aircraft Propulsion: Design Considerations

Current high temperature superconducting (HTS) wires exhibit high current densities enabling their use in electrical rotating machinery. The possibility of designing high power density superconducting motors operating at reasonable temperatures allows for new applications in mobile systems in which size and weight represent key design parameters. Thus, all-electric aircrafts represent a promising application for HTS motors. The design of such a complex system as an aircraft consists of a multi-variable optimization that requires computer models and advanced design procedures. This paper presents a specific sizing model of superconducting propulsion motors to be used in aircraft design. The model also takes into account the cooling system. The requirements for this application are presented in terms of power and dynamics as well as a load profile corresponding to a typical mission. We discuss the design implications of using a superconducting motor on an aircraft as well as the integration of the electrical propulsion in the aircraft, and the scaling laws derived from physics-based modeling of HTS motors.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.

A revised age of AD 667-699 for the latest major eruption at Rabaul

The most recent major eruption at Rabaul was one of the largest known events at this complex system, having a VEI rating of 6. The eruption generated widespread airfall pumice lapilli and ash deposits and ignimbrites of different types. The total volume of pyroclastic material produced in the eruption exceeded 11 km3 and led to a new phase of collapse within Rabaul Caldera. Initial 14C dating of the eruptive products yielded an age of about 1400 yrs BP, and the eruption became known as the "1400 BP" eruption. Previous analyses of the timing of the eruption have linked it to events in AD 536 and AD 639. However, we have re-evaluated the age of the eruption using the Bayesian wiggle-match radiocarbon dating method, and the eruption is now thought to
have occurred in the interval AD 667-699. The only significant equatorial eruptions recorded in both Greenland and Antarctic ice during this interval are at AD 681 and AD 684, dates that coincide with frost rings in bristlecone pines of western USA in the same years. Definitively linking the Rabaul eruption to this narrow age range will require identification of Rabaul tephra in the ice records. However, it is proposed that a new working hypothesis for the timing of the most recent major eruption at Rabaul is that it occurred in the interval AD 681-684.

Maintaining a grasp on reality – Is our validation and design effort focused in the same direction?

This article examines the influence on the engineering design process of the primary objective of validation, whether it is proving a model, a technology or a product. Through the examination of a number of stiffened panel case studies, the relationships between simulation, validation, design and the final product are established and discussed. The work demonstrates the complex interactions between the original (or anticipated) design model, the analysis model, the validation activities and the product in service. The outcome shows clearly some unintended consequences. High fidelity validation test simulations require a different set of detailed parameters to accurately capture behaviour. By doing so, there is a divergence from the original computer-aided design model, intrinsically limiting the value of the validation with respect to the product. This work represents a shift from the traditional perspective of encapsulating and controlling errors between simulation and experimental test to consideration of the wider design-test process. Specifically, it is a reflection on the implications of how models are built and validated, and the effect on results and understanding of structural behaviour. This article then identifies key checkpoints in the design process and how these should be used to update the computer-aided design system parameters for a design. This work strikes at a fundamental challenge in understanding the interaction between design, certification and operation of any complex system.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

Investigating Fractured Flow from Orthopaedics to Rehabilitation

Patients often spend time as inpatients in hospitals outside their home area because of the need to access specialist services. If there is a need for ongoing care after the need for specialist care has passed, patients are transferred (or ‘repatriated’) back to the inpatient care of a hospital in their local Health and Social Care Trust. The need for bed space in specialist units means that there is pressure for this transition to occur in a timely way. We investigated the flow of patients through a trauma and orthopaedics unit using the 6M Design® framework and Vitals Charts® in order to investigate concerns about delayed repatriation. We found that repatriation was part of a complex system that had interdependent components. There was considerable variation in the number of discharges (to any destination) by day of week, with a reduction on Saturdays and Sundays. Understanding that the pressure for quicker repatriation was really due to high work-in-progress led us to model the effects of strategies to address the high work-in-progress. We found that, because only a small proportion of patients require repatriation, expediting the repatriation process by one day for each patient would only reduce WIP by an average of 1.6 patients. Reducing the average length of stay for all trauma and orthopaedics inpatients by one day would reduce the WIP by 10 patients, which would make a much greater impact on the problem of high bed occupancy. Though the smooth and timely repatriation of patients to rehabilitation units is desirable, it is unlikely that efforts to achieve this will have a substantial impact on the problem of high WIP, so other strategies will be required. We will model the effects of strategies to reduce variation in daily discharges by the day of week in a future essay.

The Type VI secretion system of Burkholderia cenocepacia affects multiple Rho family GTPases disrupting the actin cytoskeleton and the assembly of NADPH oxidase complex in macrophages

Burkholderia cenocepacia is a Gram-negative opportunistic pathogen of patients with cystic fibrosis and chronic granulomatous disease. The bacterium survives intracellularly in macrophages within a membrane-bound vacuole (BcCV) that precludes the fusion with lysosomes. The underlying cellular mechanisms and bacterial molecules mediating these phenotypes are unknown. Here, we show that intracellular B. cenocepacia expressing a type VI secretion system (T6SS) affects the activation of the Rac1 and Cdc42 RhoGTPase by reducing the cellular pool of GTP-bound Rac1 and Cdc42. The T6SS also increases the cellular pool of GTP-bound RhoA and decreases cofilin activity. These effects lead to abnormal actin polymerization causing collapse of lamellipodia and failure to retract the uropod. The T6SS also prevents the recruitment of soluble subunits of the NADPH oxidase complex including Rac1 to the BcCV membrane, but is not involved in the BcCV maturation arrest. Therefore, T6SS-mediated deregulation of Rho family GTPases is a common mechanism linking disruption of the actin cytoskeleton and delayed NADPH oxidase activation in macrophages infected with B. cenocepacia.

BcsK(C) Is an Essential Protein for the Type VI Secretion System Activity in Burkholderia cenocepacia That Forms an Outer Membrane Complex with BcsL(B)

The type VI secretion system (T6SS) contributes to the virulence of Burkholderia cenocepacia, an opportunistic pathogen causing serious chronic infections in patients with cystic fibrosis. BcsK(C) is a highly conserved protein among the T6SSs in Gram-negative bacteria. Here, we show that BcsK(C) is required for Hcp secretion and cytoskeletal redistribution in macrophages upon bacterial infection. These two phenotypes are associated with a functional T6SS in B. cenocepacia. Experiments employing a bacterial two-hybrid system and pulldown assays demonstrated that BcsK(C) interacts with BcsL(B), another conserved T6SS component. Internal deletions within BcsK(C) revealed that its N-terminal domain is necessary and sufficient for interaction with BcsL(B). Fractionation experiments showed that BcsK(C) can be in the cytosol or tightly associated with the outer membrane and that BcsK(C) and BcsL(B) form a high molecular weight complex anchored to the outer membrane that requires BcsF(H) (a ClpV homolog) to be assembled. Together, our data show that BcsK(C)/BcsL(B) interaction is essential for the T6SS activity in B. cenocepacia.

A single microphone capillary-based system for measuring the complex input impedance of musical wind instruments

Capillary-based systems for measuring the input impedance of musical wind instruments were first developed in the mid-20th century and remain in widespread use today. In this paper, the basic principles and assumptions underpinning the design of such systems are examined. Inexpensive modifications to a capillary-based impedance measurement set-up made possible due to advances in computing and data acquisition technology are discussed. The modified set-up is able to measure both impedance magnitude and impedance phase even though it only contains one microphone. In addition, a method of calibration is described that results in a significant improvement in accuracy when measuring high impedance objects on the modified capillary-based system. The method involves carrying out calibration measurements on two different objects whose impedances are well-known theoretically. The benefits of performing two calibration measurements (as opposed to the one calibration measurement that has been traditionally used) are demonstrated experimentally through input impedance measurements on two test objects and a Boosey and Hawkes oboe. © S. Hirzel Verlag · EAA.

Complex pattern of genetic structuring in the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) of the River Foyle system in northwest Ireland: disentangling the evolutionary signal from population stochasticity

Little is known about the microevolutionary processes shaping within river population genetic structure of aquatic organisms characterized by high levels of homing and spawning site fidelity. Using a microsatellite panel, we observed complex and highly significant levels of intrariver population genetic substructure and Isolation-by-Distance, in the Atlantic salmon stock of a large river system. Two evolutionary models have been considered explaining mechanisms promoting genetic substructuring in Atlantic salmon, the member-vagrant and metapopulation models. We show that both models can be simultaneously used to explain patterns and levels of population structuring within the Foyle system. We show that anthropogenic factors have had a large influence on contemporary population structure observed. In an analytical development, we found that the frequently used estimator of genetic differentiation, F-ST, routinely underestimated genetic differentiation by a factor three to four compared to the equivalent statistic Jost's D-est (Jost 2008). These statistics also showed a near-perfect correlation. Despite ongoing discussions regarding the usefulness of "adjusted" F-ST statistics, we argue that these could be useful to identify and quantify qualitative differences between populations, which are important from management and conservation perspectives as an indicator of existence of biologically significant variation among tributary populations or a warning of critical environmental damage.