Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

UN 2006 Climate Change Conference: a confidence building step?

An analysis of the UN 2006 COP.

Northern Ireland's Consent to the Climate Change Act 2008: An Illusion?

This is the first in a two-part analysis of Northern Ireland’s engagement with the climate governance regime created by the UK Climate Change Act 2008. It contends that UK devolution has shaped this national regime and may itself be shaped by the national low carbon transition, particularly in the case of the UK’s most devolved region. In essence, while Northern Ireland’s consent to the application of the Act appeared to represent a long-term commitment to share power in the interests of present and future generations and thus to devolution itself, this first article argues that it was also potentially illusory. The second article argues that making an effective commitment to climate governance will require its devolved administration to allow constitutional arrangements designed for conflict resolution to mature. Failure to do so will have important implications for the UK’s putative ‘national’ low carbon transition and the longer term viability of devolution in the region.

Climate change, Hans Jonas and indirect investors

This article considers how corporate behaviour in relation to climate change might be reconfigured and the role that indirect investors might play in this reconfiguring. The article suggests that the consequences of climate change are serious enough that indirect investors might be prevailed upon, using a model of behaviour suggested by the work of Hans Jonas, to pressure institutional investors into demanding changes in corporate policy towards climate change. Jonas' work represents a plea for the recognition and acceptance of responsibility in the face of nature's vulnerability and humanity's power over technology. The article suggests that this ethic can be operationalised in relation to corporate governance by building on the changes in the pattern of investment holdings that have taken place in large public companies in the preceding two decades or so. The idea is to appeal to individuals who may perceive themselves as currently being outsiders – or at least only distant stakeholders in relation to the corporation – to realise the responsibility vested in them as beneficiaries through their interest in pension funds, life assurance policies, annuities and other arm's-length financial arrangements with corporations. The hope is that these individuals may, through the influence of a model of responsibility, become active investors and beneficiaries interested in corporate practices that impact on climate change and, encourage others to do likewise.

Climate Change Mitigation and Intergenerational Justice

Existing climate change mitigation policies are particularly concerned with the reconciliation of two seemingly conflicting aims: environmental protection and economic efficiency. The normative principles underlying these policies meanwhile focus on two central ideas: fair burden-sharing and agents' responsibility. However, both existing policy instruments and their supporting philosophical principles are highly problematic in terms of intergenerational justice and truly effective climate change mitigation. Three competing conceptions for allocating and distributing the burdens of climate change mitigation (cap-and-trade schemes, carbon emission taxes, and personal ecological space quotas) and their compatibility with principles of intra- and intergenerational justice are analysed and evaluated. None of the proposed instruments is able to satisfy the demands of effective mitigation and egalitarian justice on its own, which suggests that existing proposals for the distribution of emission rights and climate change-related costs need to be supported by a thicker account of intergenerational justice.

Climate Change, national politics and grassroots action: an introduction

Climate change continues to dominate academic work within green/environmental politics. Indeed, there appears to be almost an inverse relationship between the lack of political leadership on tackling climate change and the growth in ever more sophisticated academic analyses of this complex and multifaceted problem. There is an increasing disjunction between the growth in our knowledge and understanding of the ethical, political, economic, sociological, cultural, and psychological aspects of climate change and the lack of political achievement in putting in place clear and binding targets, an agreed decarbonisation roadmap, and associated regulatory and policy instruments with enforcement. This gap might be taken as evidence that we do not need more reports on climate change. To quote that most unlikely of green politicians, Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Governor of California: ‘The debate is over. We know the science. We see the threat. And we know that the time for action is now’ (California Energy Commission 2007, p. 1). This special issue focuses on a variety of ways in which climate change is conceptualised in normative political and ethical theory, and addressed in policy and regulations.

Promoting Dignity for All: Human Rights Approaches in the Post-2015 Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development Frameworks

This article takes as its starting point the potentially negative human rights implications that the effects of climate change, disasters and development practices can have on individuals and communities. It argues that key international instruments, including the post-2015 successors to the Kyoto Protocol, Hyogo Framework for Action on disaster risk reduction and the Millennium Development Goals, appear to be moving towards an express acknowledgment of the relevance of international human rights law as an important mechanism to minimise potential harms that may arise. This raises the question as to the appropriate role of the UN human rights monitoring and accountability mechanisms in identifying the relevant rights-holders and duty-bearers. The article therefore provides an examination of the linkages between climate change and international human rights law, as well as discussion of the human rights considerations and accountability mechanisms for disasters and sustainable development. The article concludes by arguing that despite differential understandings between disciplines as to the meaning of key terms such as ‘vulnerability’ and ‘resilience’, international human rights law provides a comprehensive basis for promoting international and national accountability. It follows that a greater level of coordination and coherence between the human rights approaches of the various post-2015 legal and policy frameworks is warranted as a means of promoting the dignity of those most affected by climate change, disasters and developmental activities.

Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method

Risks are an essential feature of future climate change impacts. We explore whether knowledge that climate change might be the source of increasing pine beetle impacts on public or private forests affects stated risk estimates of damage, elicited using the exchangeability method. We find that across subjects the difference between public and private forest status does not influence stated risks, but the group told that global warming is the cause of pine beetle damage has significantly higher risk perceptions than the group not given this information.

Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.