Rift Valley Fever Epidemiology, Surveillance, and Control: What Have Models Contributed?

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging vector-borne zoonotic disease that represents a threat to human health, animal health, and livestock production, particularly in Africa. The epidemiology of RVF is not well understood, so that forecasting RVF outbreaks and carrying out efficient and timely control measures remains a challenge. Various epidemiological modeling tools have been used to increase knowledge on RVF epidemiology and to inform disease management policies.

On visco-elastic modelling of polyethylene terephthalate behaviour during multiaxial elongations slightly over the glass transition temperature

The mechanical response of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) in elongation is strongly dependent on temperature, strain and strain rate. Near the glass transition temperature Tg, the stress-strain curve presents a strain softening effect vs strain rate but a strain hardening effect vs strain under conditions of large deformations. The main goal of this work is to propose a viscoelastic model to predict the PET behaviour when subjected to large deformations and to determine the material properties from the experimental data. To represent the non–linear effects, an elastic part depending on the elastic equivalent strain and a non-Newtonian viscous part depending on both viscous equivalent strain rate and cumulated viscous strain are tested. The model parameters can then be accurately obtained trough a comparison with the experimental uniaxial and biaxial tests. The in?uence of the temperature on the viscous part is also modelled and an evaluation of the adiabatic self heating of the specimen is compared to experimental results.

Pan-STARRS1 DISCOVERY OF TWO ULTRALUMINOUS SUPERNOVAE AT(z) approximate to 0.9

We present the discovery of two ultraluminous supernovae (SNe) at z approximate to 0.9 with the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. These SNe, PS1-10ky and PS1-10awh, are among the most luminous SNe ever discovered, comparable to the unusual transients SN 2005ap and SCP 06F6. Like SN 2005ap and SCP 06F6, they show characteristic high luminosities (M-bol approximate to -22.5 mag), blue spectra with a few broad absorption lines, and no evidence for H or He. We have constructed a full multi-color light curve sensitive to the peak of the spectral energy distribution in the rest-frame ultraviolet, and we have obtained time series spectroscopy for these SNe. Given the similarities between the SNe, we combine their light curves to estimate a total radiated energy over the course of explosion of (0.9-1.4) x 10(51) erg. We find photospheric velocities of 12,000-19,000 km s(-1) with no evidence for deceleration measured across similar to 3 rest-frame weeks around light curve peak, consistent with the expansion of an optically thick massive shell of material. We show that, consistent with findings for other ultraluminous SNe in this class, radioactive decay is not sufficient to power PS1-10ky, and we discuss two plausible origins for these events: the initial spin-down of a newborn magnetar in a core-collapse SN, or SN shock breakout from the dense circumstellar wind surrounding a Wolf-Rayet star.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Evolving southwest African response to abrupt deglacial North Atlantic climate change events

Climate change during the last deglaciation was strongly influenced by the „bipolar seesaw‟, producing antiphase climate responses between the North and South Atlantic. However, mounting evidence demands refinements of this model, with the occurrence of abrupt events in southern low to mid latitudes occurring in-phase with North Atlantic climate. Improved constraints on the north-south phasing and spatial extent of these events are therefore critical to
understanding the mechanisms that propagate abrupt events within the climate system. We present a 19,400 year multi-proxy record of climate change obtained from a rock hyrax midden in southernmost Africa. Arid anomalies in phase with the Younger Dryas and 8.2 ka events are apparent, indicating a clear shift in the influence of the bipolar seesaw, which diminished as the Earth warmed, and was succeeded after ~14.6 ka by the emergence of a dominant interhemispheric atmospheric teleconnection.

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.