Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

Task sharing within a managed clinical network to improve child health in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Eighty per cent of Malawi's 8 million children live in rural areas, and there is an extensive tiered health system infrastructure from village health clinics to district hospitals which refers patients to one of the four central hospitals. The clinics and district hospitals are staffed by nurses, non-physician clinicians and recently qualified doctors. There are 16 paediatric specialists working in two of the four central hospitals which serve the urban population as well as accepting referrals from district hospitals. In order to provide expert paediatric care as close to home as possible, we describe our plan to task share within a managed clinical network and our hypothesis that this will improve paediatric care and child health.

PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: Managed clinical networks have been found to improve equity of care in rural districts and to ensure that the correct care is provided as close to home as possible. A network for paediatric care in Malawi with mentoring of non-physician clinicians based in a district hospital by paediatricians based at the central hospitals will establish and sustain clinical referral pathways in both directions. Ultimately, the plan envisages four managed paediatric clinical networks, each radiating from one of Malawi's four central hospitals and covering the entire country. This model of task sharing within four hub-and-spoke networks may facilitate wider dissemination of scarce expertise and improve child healthcare in Malawi close to the child's home.

TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Funding has been secured to train sufficient personnel to staff all central and district hospitals in Malawi with teams of paediatric specialists in the central hospitals and specialist non-physician clinicians in each government district hospital. The hypothesis will be tested using a natural experiment model. Data routinely collected by the Ministry of Health will be corroborated at the district. This will include case fatality rates for common childhood illness, perinatal mortality and process indicators. Data from different districts will be compared at baseline and annually until 2020 as the specialists of both cadres take up posts.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: If a managed clinical network improves child healthcare in Malawi, it may be a potential model for the other countries in sub-Saharan Africa with similar cadres in their healthcare system and face similar challenges in terms of scarcity of specialists.

First report of the use of a saxitoxin-protein conjugate to develop a DNA aptamer to a small molecule toxin

Saxitoxin (STX) is a low molecular weight neurotoxin mainly produced by certain marine dinoflagellates that, along with its family of similarly related paralytic shellfish toxins, may cause the potentially fatal intoxication known as paralytic shellfish poisoning. Illness and fatality rates are low due to the effective monitoring programs that determine when toxins exceed the established regulatory action level and effectuate shellfish harvesting closures accordingly. Such monitoring programs rely on the ability to rapidly screen large volumes of samples. Many of the screening assays currently available employ antibodies or live animals. This research focused on developing an analytical recognition element that would eliminate the challenges associated with the limited availability of antibodies and the use of animals. Here we report the discovery of a DNA aptamer that targets STX. Concentration-dependent and selective binding of the aptamer to STX was determined using a surface plasmon resonance sensor. Not only does this work represent the first reported aptamer to STX, but also the first aptamer to any marine biotoxin. A novel strategy of using a toxin-protein conjugate for DNA aptamer selection was successfully implemented to overcome the challenges associated with aptamer selection to small molecules. Taking advantage of such an approach could lead to increased diversity and accessibility of aptamers to low molecular weight toxins, which could then be incorporated as analytical recognition elements in diagnostic assays for foodborne toxin detection. The selected STX aptamer sequence is provided here, making it available to any investigator for use in assay development for the detection of STX.

Synthesizable high performance adaptive equaliser and viterbi decoder for the class-IV PRML channel

The design and VLSI implementation of two key components of the class-IV partial response maximum likelihood channel (PR-IV) the adaptive filter and the Viterbi decoder are described. These blocks are implemented using parameterised VHDL modules, from a library of common digital signal processing (DSP) and arithmetic functions. Design studies, based on 0.6 micron 3.3V standard cell processes, indicate that worst case sampling rates of 49 mega-samples per second are achievable for this system, with proportionally high sampling rates for full custom designs and smaller dimension processes. Significant increases in the sampling rate, from 49 MHz to approximately 180 MHz, can be achieved by operating four filter modules in parallel, and this implementation has 50% lower power consumption than a pipelined filter operating at the same speed.

The Risk Implications of Globalisation: An Exploratory Analysis of 105 Major Industrial Incidents (1971–2010)

This paper revisits work on the socio-political amplification of risk, which predicts that those living in developing countries are exposed to greater risk than residents of developed nations. This prediction contrasts with the neoliberal expectation that market driven improvements in working conditions within industrialising/developing nations will lead to global convergence of hazard exposure levels. It also contradicts the assumption of risk society theorists that there will be an ubiquitous increase in risk exposure across the globe, which will primarily affect technically more advanced countries. Reviewing qualitative evidence on the impact of structural adjustment reforms in industrialising countries, the export of waste and hazardous waste recycling to these countries and new patterns of domestic industrialisation, the paper suggests that workers in industrialising countries continue to face far greater levels of hazard exposure than those of developed countries. This view is confirmed when a data set including 105 major multi-fatality industrial disasters from 1971 to 2000 is examined. The paper concludes that there is empirical support for the predictions of socio-political amplification of risk theory, which finds clear expression in the data in a consistent pattern of significantly greater fatality rates per industrial incident in industrialising/developing countries.

Rapid emergence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Salmonella typhi in Blantyre, Malawi

INTRODUCTION: Between 1998 and 2010, S. Typhi was an uncommon cause of bloodstream infection (BSI) in Blantyre, Malawi and it was usually susceptible to first-line antimicrobial therapy. In 2011 an increase in a multidrug resistant (MDR) strain was detected through routine bacteriological surveillance conducted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH).

METHODS: Longitudinal trends in culture-confirmed Typhoid admissions at QECH were described between 1998-2014. A retrospective review of patient cases notes was conducted, focusing on clinical presentation, prevalence of HIV and case-fatality. Isolates of S. Typhi were sequenced and the phylogeny of Typhoid in Blantyre was reconstructed and placed in a global context.

RESULTS: Between 1998-2010, there were a mean of 14 microbiological diagnoses of Typhoid/year at QECH, of which 6.8% were MDR. This increased to 67 in 2011 and 782 in 2014 at which time 97% were MDR. The disease predominantly affected children and young adults (median age 11 [IQR 6-21] in 2014). The prevalence of HIV in adult patients was 16.7% [8/48], similar to that of the general population (17.8%). Overall, the case fatality rate was 2.5% (3/94). Complications included anaemia, myocarditis, pneumonia and intestinal perforation. 112 isolates were sequenced and the phylogeny demonstrated the introduction and clonal expansion of the H58 lineage of S. Typhi.

CONCLUSIONS: Since 2011, there has been a rapid increase in the incidence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Typhoid in Blantyre. This is one of a number of reports of the re-emergence of Typhoid in Southern and Eastern Africa. There is an urgent need to understand the reservoirs and transmission of disease and how to arrest this regional increase.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.

Wide Variation in Adenoma Detection Rates at Screening Flexible Sigmoidoscopy

Background & Aims: Wide between-center variation in adenoma detection rates (ADRs) was observed in the U.K. Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial (overall, 12.1%; range, 8.6%-15.9%; P <0.0001). The aim of this study was to determine whether the observed differences could be attributed to varying performance by endoscopists, to examine the effect of experience on performance, and to identify an attainable, standard ADR to which endoscopists could aspire. 

Methods: Thirteen medical endoscopists, one per trial center, each performed about 3000 examinations (200 per month) using the same equipment and protocol. Overall and monthly ADRs were compared using multivariable logistic regression. 

Results: Differences in ADRs were not explained by patient characteristics, incidence of colorectal cancer in the local population, or the endoscopists' medical specialty or previous experience. Average ADRs increased significantly with screening experience (up to 400 examinations). Endoscopists were classified as higher, intermediate, or lower adenoma detectors, and performance levels were maintained over time. Higher detectors had ADRs of 15% overall (men, 20%; women, 10%) and also detected more adenomas per case (higher/lower detectors, 21.7/10.4 adenomas per :100 examinations). 

Conclusions: The differences in ADRs were due to variation in performance of the endoscopists. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this variation is clinically important. We suggest that the standards in higher detecting centers should be achievable by all endoscopists screening unscreened populations aged older than 55 years. Endoscopists should aim to stay above the lower 95% confidence interval band for 200 examinations (10% overall; 5% in women, 15% in men).

War, peace and suicide: The case of Northern Ireland

Durkheim’s idea that war reduces suicide through greater social and political integration has been used to explain suicide trends during the Northern Ireland conflict and in the period of peace. The applicability of Durkheim is critically evaluated through a case study of suicide trends by age, gender and cause of death over a forty year period. The key finding is that the cohort of children and young people who grew up in the worst years of violence during the 1970s, have the highest and most rapidly increasing suicide rates, and account for the steep upward trend in suicide following the 1998 Agreement. Contrary to Durkheim, the recent rise in suicide involves a complex of social and psychological factors. These include the growth in social isolation, poor mental health arising from the experience of conflict, and the greater political stability of the past decade. The transition to peace means that externalised aggression is no longer socially approved. It becomes internalised instead.

Natural history of idiopathic erythrocytosis - A retrospective case series review

Idiopathic Erythrocytosis (IE) is a diagnosis given to patients who have an absolute erythrocytosis (red cell mass more than 25% above their mean normal predicted value) but who do not have a known form of primary or secondary erythrocytosis (BCSH guideline, 2005). We report here the results of a follow-up study of 80 patients (44 male and 36 female) diagnosed with IE from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland over a 10 year period. Baseline information was initially collected when investigating for molecular causes of erythrocytosis in this group. The diagnosis of IE was made on the basis of a raised red cell mass >25% above mean normal predicted value, absence of Polycythaemia Vera (PV) based on the criteria of Pearson and Messinezy (1996), and the exclusion of secondary erythrocytosis (oxygen saturation >92% on pulse oximetry, no history of sleep apnoea, no renal or hepatic pathology, and a normal oxygen dissociation curve (if indicated). The average age at diagnosis of erythrocytosis was 34.5 (2–74 years). Erythropoietin levels were available for 77/80 of the patients and were low in 18 (23%) and normal or high in 59 (74%). Ultrasound imaging was carried out in 67 patients (84%) at time of diagnosis and no significant abnormalities found. Fourteen patients had a family history of erythrocytosis. These patients have now been followed up for an average of 9.4 years (range 1–39). Out of 80 patients 56 patients can still be classified as having IE, of whom 52 are living (cause of death in the other 4 - lung cancer, RTA, sepsis, unknown). Thirty-five of these patients are regularly venesected, 3 take hydroxyurea (one also venesected), 11 receive no treatment while treatment is unknown in 2. Twenty take aspirin, 1 warfarin and 31 no thromboprophylaxis. Four of these patients had suffered thromboembolic complications (3 with CVA/TIAs and 1 with recurrent DVT) at or before their original diagnosis. Since diagnosis 8 patients have had 9 thrombotic events of which 7 were arterial (1 CVA, 3 TIAs, 1 MI, 2 PVD) and 2 venous (DVT/PE). Twenty take aspirin, 1 dipyridamole, 1 warfarin and 30 take no thromboprophylaxis. Out of the 24 patients who now have a diagnosis other than IE, 8 have been diagnosed with myelo-proliferative disease. Thirteen patients have a molecular abnormality which is likely to account for their erythrocytosis (11 VHL, 1 PHD-2, 1 EPO-receptor mutations). Three patients have secondary erythrocytosis. Older case studies identified a heterogenous group of patients, some of whom probably had apparent erythrocytosis and some who had either primary polycythaemia or secondary causes later identified (Modan and Modan, Najean et al). More recent reviews have identified a more homogenous group with low rates of transformation to myelofibrosis/acute leukaemia and low rates of thrombosis of around 1% patient-year. Follow up of our initial patient group does indeed reveal a heterogeneous group of patients with 10% now diagnosed with an MPD, although when analysis is confined to those patients who continue to fulfil the criteria for IE, the clinical course has been more stable. There has been no progression to MDS or leukaemia in this group (one patient with PV progressed to AML). The rate of thrombosis is 1.6% patient-years which is lower than the rate seen in PV and is consistent with the rate identified in other series. Molecular defects continue to be identified in this group and future investigation is likely to reveal further abnormalities.

Delay times and rates for Type Ia supernovae and thermonuclear explosions from double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass models

We present theoretical delay times and rates of thermonuclear explosions that are thought to produce Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), including the double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass model, using the population synthesis binary evolution code startrack. If detonations of sub-Chandrasekhar mass carbon-oxygen white dwarfs following a detonation in an accumulated layer of helium on the white dwarf's surface ('double-detonation' models) are able to produce thermonuclear explosions which are characteristically similar to those of SNe Ia, then these sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosions may account for at least some substantial fraction of the observed SN Ia rate. Regardless of whether all double-detonations look like 'normal' SNe Ia, in any case the explosions are expected to be bright and thus potentially detectable. Additionally, we find that the delay time distribution of double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass SNe Ia can be divided into two distinct formation channels: the 'prompt' helium-star channel with delay times

Mass-loss rates for hot luminous stars:The influence of line branching

The effect of photon frequency redistribution by line branching on mass-loss rates for hot luminous stars is investigated. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out for a range of OB star models which show that previous mass-loss calculations which neglect non-resonance line scattering overestimate mass-loss rates for luminous O stars by ~20 per cent. For luminous B stars the effect is somewhat larger, typically ~50 per cent. A Wolf-Rayet star model is used to investigate line branching in the strong wind limit. In this case the effect of line branching is much greater, giving mass-loss rates that are smaller by a factor ~3 from computations which neglect branching.

Enquiring about traumatic experiences in bipolar disorder: A case note and self- report comparison

Objectives: This study examined: (i) the prevalence of lifetime trauma, childhood trauma and trauma related to civil unrest in a Bipolar Disorder sample, and (ii) the agreement between rates of disclosure of trauma in case notes and self-report questionnaires.

Methods: The case notes of sixty participants, recruited from a geographically well-defined mental health service in Northern Ireland, were examined for reports of experiences of lifetime, childhood and traumatic events related to civil conflict. The participants also completed self-report measures of trauma.

Results: Considerable differences were found between the prevalence of trauma as measured by self-report questionnaires and case notes reports. The prevalence of lifetime trauma as measured by the Trauma History Questionnaire was 61.7% (compared to case notes prevalence of 33.3%). The prevalence of moderate and severe levels of childhood trauma as measured by the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire was 65% (case notes 21.7%). Rates of trauma related to civil unrest were 35% (case notes 3.3%). Poor levels of agreement were found between all self-report trauma measures and case notes reports. Agreement on two categories of trauma (childhood emotional neglect and childhood physical neglect) reached statistical significance but kappa scores suggest this agreement was poor (kappa = .14. p<.05; kappa = .127, p<.05). © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conclusions: It is probable that the increased rate of trauma disclosed in the self-report questionnaire arises because clinicians during initial assessment and subsequent treatment do not consistently enquire about trauma. The need for staff training is discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.