Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Electric vehicle capacity forecasting model with application to load levelling

There are many uncertainties in forecasting the charging and discharging capacity required by electric vehicles (EVs) often as a consequence of stochastic usage and intermittent travel. In terms of large-scale EV integration in future power networks this paper develops a capacity forecasting model which considers eight particular uncertainties in three categories. Using the model, a typical application of EVs to load levelling is presented and exemplified using a UK 2020 case study. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the proposed model is accurate for charge and discharge prediction and a feasible basis for steady-state analysis required for large-scale EV integration.

Determination of Power System Response during Small Load Fluctuations

This paper proposes a calculation method to determine power system response during small load perturbations or minor disturbances. The method establishes the initial value of active power transient using traditional reduction technique on admittance matrix, which incorporates voltage variations in the determination. The method examines active power distribution among generators when several loads simultaneously change, and verifies that the superposition principle is applicable for this scenario. The theoretical derivation provided in the paper is validated by numerical simulations using a 3-generator 9-bus benchmark model. The results indicate that the inclusion of voltage variation renders an independent and precise measure of active power response during transient conditions.

Improving fuel economy application of the organic Rankine Cycle on a hybrid bus

Globally vehicle operators are experiencing rising fuel costs and increased
running expenses as governments around the world attempt to decrease carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel consumption, due to global warming and the drive to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Recent advances in hybrid vehicle design have made great strides towards more efficient operation, with regenerative braking being widely used to capture otherwise lost energy. In this paper a hybrid series bus is developed a step further, by installing another method of energy capture on the vehicle. In this case, it is in the form of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). The waste heat expelled to the exhaust and coolant streams is recovered and converted to electrical energy which is then stored in the hybrid vehicles batteries. The electrical energy can then be used for the auxiliary power circuit or to assist in vehicle propulsion, thus reducing the load on the engine, thereby improving the overall fuel economy of the vehicle and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Load Testing of Floor Slabs in a Full-Scale Reinforced Concrete Building

A series of short and long term service load tests were undertaken on the sixth floor of the full-scale, seven storey, reinforced concrete building at the Large Building Test Facility of the Building Research Establishment at Cardington. By using internally strain gauged reinforcing bars cast into an internal and external floor bay during the construction process it was possible to gain a detailed record of slab strains resulting from the application of several arrangements of test loads. Short term tests were conducted in December 1998 and long term monitoring then ensued until April 2001. This paper describes the test programmes and presents results to indicate slab behaviour for the various loading regimes.

Finite-Element Time-Step Coupled Generator, Load, AVR and Brushless Exciter Modelling

This paper presented results from a details and comprehensive simulation using finite element method of the practical operation of an electrical machine. The results it displayed have been used in practice to design more efficient equipment.

Damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control

Damping torque analysis is a well-developed technique for understanding and studying power system oscillations. This paper presents the applications of damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control in power transmission networks in two examples. The first example is the investigation of damping effect of shunt VSC (Voltage Source Converter) based FACTS voltage control, i.e., STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) voltage control. It is shown in the paper that STATCOM voltage control mainly contributes synchronous torque and hence has little effect on the damping of power system oscillations. The second example is the damping control implemented by a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installed in a power system. Damping torque analysis reveals that when BESS damping control is realized by regulating exchange of active and reactive power between the BESS and power system respectively, BESS damping control exhibits different properties. It is concluded by damping torque analysis that BESS damping control implemented by regulating active power is better with less interaction with BESS voltage control and more robust to variations of power system operating conditions. In the paper, all analytical conclusions obtained are demonstrated by simulation results of example power systems.

Efficient computation algorithm for calculating load contributions to line flows and losses

In a deregulated power system, it is usually required to determine the shares of each load and generation in line flows, to permit fair allocation of transmission costs between the interested parties. The paper presents a new method of determining the contributions of each load to line flows and losses. The method is based on power-flow topology and has the advantage of being the least computationally demanding of similar methods.