On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Phylogeographic analysis of the red seaweed Palmaria palmata reveals a Pleistocene marine glacial refugium in the English Channel

Phylogeography has provided a new approach to the analysis of the postglacial history of a wide range of taxa but, to date, little is known about the effect of glacial periods on the marine biota of Europe. We have utilized a combination of nuclear, plastid and mitochondrial genetic markers to study the biogeographic history of the red seaweed Palmaria palmata in the North Atlantic. Analysis of the nuclear rDNA operon (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2), the plastid 16S-trnI-trnA-23S-5S, rbcL-rbcS and rpl12-rps31-rpl9 regions and the mitochondrial cox2–3 spacer has revealed the existence of a previously unidentified marine refugium in the English Channel, along with possible secondary refugia off the southwest coast of Ireland and in northeast North America and/or Iceland. Coalescent and mismatch analyses date the expansion of European populations from approximately 128 000 bp and suggest a continued period of exponential growth since then. Consequently, we postulate that the penultimate (Saale) glacial maximum was the main event in shaping the biogeographic history of European P. palmata populations which persisted throughout the last (Weichselian) glacial maximum (c. 20 000 bp) in the Hurd Deep, an enigmatic trench in the English Channel.

Fault Diagnosis in Internal Combustion Engines Using Nonlinear Multivariate Statistics

This paper presents a statistical-based fault diagnosis scheme for application to internal combustion engines. The scheme relies on an identified model that describes the relationships between a set of recorded engine variables using principal component analysis (PCA). Since combustion cycles are complex in nature and produce nonlinear relationships between the recorded engine variables, the paper proposes the use of nonlinear PCA (NLPCA). The paper further justifies the use of NLPCA by comparing the model accuracy of the NLPCA model with that of a linear PCA model. A new nonlinear variable reconstruction algorithm and bivariate scatter plots are proposed for fault isolation, following the application of NLPCA. The proposed technique allows the diagnosis of different fault types under steady-state operating conditions. More precisely, nonlinear variable reconstruction can remove the fault signature from the recorded engine data, which allows the identification and isolation of the root cause of abnormal engine behaviour. The paper shows that this can lead to (i) an enhanced identification of potential root causes of abnormal events and (ii) the masking of faulty sensor readings. The effectiveness of the enhanced NLPCA based monitoring scheme is illustrated by its application to a sensor fault and a process fault. The sensor fault relates to a drift in the fuel flow reading, whilst the process fault relates to a partial blockage of the intercooler. These faults are introduced to a Volkswagen TDI 1.9 Litre diesel engine mounted on an experimental engine test bench facility.

Dynamics of Viral RNA Synthesis during Measles Virus Infection

We propose a reference model of the kinetics of a viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (vRdRp) activities and its regulation during infection of eucaryotic cells. After measles virus infects a cell, mRNAs from all genes immediately start to accumulate linearly over the first 5 to 6 h and then exponentially until approximately 24 h. The change from a linear to an exponential accumulation correlates with de novo synthesis of vRdRp from the incoming template. Expression of the virus nucleoprotein (N) prior to infection shifts the balance in favor of replication. Conversely, inhibition of protein synthesis by cycloheximide favors the latter. The in vivo elongation speed of the viral polymerase is approximately 3 nucleotides/s. A similar profile with fivefold-slower kinetics can be obtained using a recombinant virus expressing a structurally altered polymerase. Finally, virions contain only encapsidated genomic, antigenomic, and 5'-end abortive replication fragment RNAs.

Calcium currents in interstitial cells from the guinea-pig bladder.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are inward currents in interstitial cells (IC) isolated from the guinea-pig detrusor and if so, to characterise them using the patch-clamp technique and pharmacological agents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the whole-cell patch-clamp technique, inward currents were studied in IC enzymatically isolated from the detrusor of the guinea-pig bladder. Currents were evoked by stepping positively from a holding potential of - 80 mV. RESULTS: Outward K+ currents were blocked by Cs+ internal solution to reveal inward currents, which activated at voltages more positive than - 50 mV, peaked at 0 mV, reversed near + 50 mV and were half-maximally activated at - 27 mV. The inward currents showed voltage-dependent inactivation and were half-maximally inactivated at - 36 mV. Fitting the activation and inactivation data with a Boltzmann function revealed a window current between - 40 mV and + 20 mV. The decay of the current evoked at 0 mV could be fitted with a single exponential with a mean time-constant of 88 ms. Replacing external Ca2+ with Ba2+ significantly increased this to 344 ms. The current amplitude was augmented by Ba2+, and by Bay K 8644. Inward currents were significantly reduced by 1 microm nifedipine, across the voltage range, but the blockade was more effective on the current evoked at 0 mV than that evoked by a step to - 20 mV, perhaps indicating voltage-dependence of the action of nifedipine or another component of inward current. Increasing the concentration of the drug to 10 microm caused no further significant reduction either at 0 mV or at -20 mV. However, in the presence of 1 microm nifedipine the latter current was significantly reduced by 100 microm Ni2+. Both currents were significantly reduced in Ca2+-free solution. CONCLUSIONS: IC from the guinea-pig detrusor possess inward currents with typical characteristics of L-type Ca2+ current. They also have a component of inward Ca2+ current, which was resistant to nifedipine, but sensitive to Ni2+. Further work is needed to characterise the latter conductance. PMID: 16686735 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Goal Recognition through Goal Graph Analysis

We present a novel approach to goal recognition based on a two-stage paradigm of graph construction and analysis. First, a graph structure called a Goal Graph is constructed to represent the observed actions, the state of the world, and the achieved goals as well as various connections between these nodes at consecutive time steps. Then, the Goal Graph is analysed at each time step to recognise those partially or fully achieved goals that are consistent with the actions observed so far. The Goal Graph analysis also reveals valid plans for the recognised goals or part of these goals. Our approach to goal recognition does not need a plan library. It does not suffer from the problems in the acquisition and hand-coding of large plan libraries, neither does it have the problems in searching the plan space of exponential size. We describe two algorithms for Goal Graph construction and analysis in this paradigm. These algorithms are both provably sound, polynomial-time, and polynomial-space. The number of goals recognised by our algorithms is usually very small after a sequence of observed actions has been processed. Thus the sequence of observed actions is well explained by the recognised goals with little ambiguity. We have evaluated these algorithms in the UNIX domain, in which excellent performance has been achieved in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and scalability.

An exactly solvable four transition point model

Heavy particle collisions, in particular low-energy ion-atom collisions, are amenable to semiclassical JWKB phase integral analysis in the complex plane of the internuclear separation. Analytic continuation in this plane requires due attention to the Stokes phenomenon which parametrizes the physical mechanisms of curve crossing, non-crossing, the hybrid Nikitin model, rotational coupling and predissociation. Complex transition points represent adiabatic degeneracies. In the case of two or more such points, the Stokes constants may only be completely determined by resort to the so-called comparison- equation method involving, in particular, parabolic cylinder functions or Whittaker functions and their strong-coupling asymptotics. In particular, the Nikitin model is a two transition-point one-double-pole problem in each half-plane corresponding to either ingoing or outgoing waves. When the four transition points are closely clustered, new techniques are required to determine Stokes constants. However, such investigations remain incomplete, A model problem is therefore solved exactly for scattering along a one-dimensional z-axis. The energy eigenvalue is b(2)-a(2) and the potential comprises -z(2)/2 (parabolic) and -a(2) + b(2)/2z(2) (centrifugal/centripetal) components. The square of the wavenumber has in the complex z-plane, four zeros each a transition point at z = +/-a +/- ib and has a double pole at z = 0. In cases (a) and (b), a and b are real and unitarity obtains. In case (a) the reflection and transition coefficients are parametrized by exponentials when a(2) + b(2) > 1/2. In case (b) they are parametrized by trigonometrics when a(2) + b(2) <1/2 and total reflection is achievable. In case (c) a and b are complex and in general unitarity is not achieved due to loss of flux to a continuum (O'Rourke and Crothers, 1992 Proc. R. Sec. 438 1). Nevertheless, case (c) coefficients reduce to (a) or (b) under appropriate limiting conditions. Setting z = ht, with h a real constant, an attempt is made to model a two-state collision problem modelled by a pair of coupled first-order impact parameter equations and an appropriate (T) over tilde-tau relation, where (T) over tilde is the Stueckelberg variable and tau is the reduced or scaled time. The attempt fails because (T) over tilde is an odd function of tau, which is unphysical in a real collision problem. However, it is pointed out that by applying the Kummer exponential model to each half-plane (O'Rourke and Crothers 1994 J. Phys. B: At. Mel. Opt. Phys. 27 2497) the current model is in effect extended to a collision problem with four transition points and a double pole in each half-plane. Moreover, the attempt in itself is not a complete failure since it is shown that the result is a perfect diabatic inelastic collision for a traceless Hamiltonian matrix, or at least when both diagonal elements are odd and the off-diagonal elements equal and even.

Equilibrium polymerization of cyclic carbonate oligomers. II. Role of multiple active sites

Ring opening polymerization of bisphenol A polycarbonate is studied by Monte Carlo simulations of a model comprising a fixed number of Lennard-Jones particles and harmonic bonds [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 3895 (2001)]. Bond interchanges produced by a low concentration (0.10%less than or equal toc(a)less than or equal to0.36%) of chemically active particles lead to equilibrium polymerization. There is a continuous transition in both 2D and 3D from unpolymerized cyclic oligomers at low density to a system of linear chains at high density, and the polymeric phase is much more stable in three dimensions than in two. The steepness of the polymerization transition increases rapidly as c(a) decreases, suggesting that it is discontinuous in the limit c(a)-->0. The transition is entropy driven, since the average potential energy increases systematically upon polymerization, and there is a steady decline in the degree of polymerization as the temperature is lowered. The mass distribution functions for open chains and for rings are unimodal, with exponentially decaying tails that can be fitted by Zimm-Schulz functions and simpler exponential forms. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Light emission from scanning tunnelling microscope on polycrystalline Au films - what is happening at the single-grain level?

When operated with a metallic tip and sample the scanning tunnelling microscope constitutes a nanoscale, plasmonic light source yielding broadband emission up to a photon energy determined by the applied bias. The emission is due to tunnelling electron excitation and subsequent radiative decay of localized plasmon modes, which can be on the lateral scale of a single metal grain (similar to 25 nm) or less. For a Au-tip/Au-polycrystalline sample under ambient conditions it is found that the intensity and spectral content of the emitted light are not dependent on the lateral grain dimension, but are predominantly determined by the tip geometry. However, the intensity increases strongly with increasing film thickness (grain depth) up to 20-25 nm or approximately the skin depth of the Au film. Photon maps can show less emissive grains and two classes of this occurrence are distinguished. The first is geometrical in origin - a double-tip structure in this case - while the second is due to a contamination-induced lowering of the local work function that causes the tunnel gap to increase. It is suggested that differences in work-function lowering between grains presenting different crystalline facets, combined with an exponential decay in emitted light intensity with tip - sample distance, leads to grain contrast. These results are relevant to tip-enhanced Raman scattering and the fabrication of micro/nano-scale planar, light-emitting tunnel devices.

Effect of plasma scale length on multi-MeV proton production by intense laser pulses

The influence of the plasma density scale length on the production of MeV protons from thin foil targets irradiated at I lambda (2) = 5 x 10(19) Wcm(-2) has been studied. With an unperturbed foil, protons with energy >20 MeV were formed in an exponential energy spectrum with a temperature of 2.5 +/- 0.3 MeV. When a plasma with a scale length of 100 mum was preformed on the back of the foil, the maximum proton energy was reduced to