Multicamera sport player tracking with Bayesian estimation of measurements

We propose a complete application capable of tracking multiple objects in an environment monitored by multiple cameras. The system has been specially developed to be applied to sport games, and it has been evaluated in a real association-football stadium. Each target is tracked using a local importance-sampling particle filter in each camera, but the final estimation is made by combining information from the other cameras using a modified unscented Kalman filter algorithm. Multicamera integration enables us to compensate for bad measurements or occlusions in some cameras thanks to the other views it offers. The final algorithm results in a more accurate system with a lower failure rate. (C) 2009 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. [DOI: 10.1117/1.3114605]

Alfvén Waves in Simulations of Solar Photospheric Vortices

Using advanced numerical magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of the magnetized solar photosphere, including non-gray radiative transport and a non-ideal equation of state, we analyze plasma motions in photospheric magnetic vortices. We demonstrate that apparent vortex-like motions in photospheric magnetic field concentrations do not exhibit "tornado"-like behavior or a "bath-tub" effect. While at each time instance the velocity field lines in the upper layers of the solar photosphere show swirls, the test particles moving with the time-dependent velocity field do not demonstrate such structures. Instead, they move in a wave-like fashion with rapidly changing and oscillating velocity field, determined mainly by magnetic tension in the magnetized intergranular downflows. Using time-distance diagrams, we identify horizontal motions in the magnetic flux tubes as torsional Alfvén perturbations propagating along the nearly vertical magnetic field lines with local Alfvén speed.

Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Active Surveillance Cohort of Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is increasingly accepted as a treatment option for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Long-term follow-up has been lacking. In this study, we report the long-term outcome of a large active surveillance protocol in men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective single-arm cohort study carried out at a single academic health sciences center, 993 men with favorable- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer were managed with an initial expectant approach. Intervention was offered for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of less than 3 years, Gleason score progression, or unequivocal clinical progression. Main outcome measures were overall and disease-specific survival, rate of treatment, and PSA failure rate in the treated patients.

RESULTS: Among the 819 survivors, the median follow-up time from the first biopsy is 6.4 years (range, 0.2 to 19.8 years). One hundred forty-nine (15%) of 993 patients died, and 844 patients are alive (censored rate, 85.0%). There were 15 deaths (1.5%) from prostate cancer. The 10- and 15-year actuarial cause-specific survival rates were 98.1% and 94.3%, respectively. An additional 13 patients (1.3%) developed metastatic disease and are alive with confirmed metastases (n = 9) or have died of other causes (n = 4). At 5, 10, and 15 years, 75.7%, 63.5%, and 55.0% of patients remained untreated and on surveillance. The cumulative hazard ratio for nonprostate-to-prostate cancer mortality was 9.2:1.

CONCLUSION: Active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer is feasible and seems safe in the 15-year time frame. In our cohort, 2.8% of patients have developed metastatic disease, and 1.5% have died of prostate cancer. This mortality rate is consistent with expected mortality in favorable-risk patients managed with initial definitive intervention.

Holding Shareholders to Account: British Banking Stability and Contingent Capital

This chapter seeks to explain the relative stability of the British banking system in terms of its capital structure. From 1826 joint-stock banking was allowed, but shareholder liability was jointly and severally unlimited. Limited liability banks were allowed from 1857–8, but these banks issued partly paid shares with an obligation on shareholders to subscribe for uncalled capital. Contingent capital meant that shareholders and managers would suffer losses in the event of failure and this discouraged risk shifting at the expense of note-holders and depositors. Although individual banks collapsed, the failure rate of banks (in terms of number or capital) did not reach a critical level—10 per cent—beyond which the payments system might have been threatened. This chapter argues that agency problems and systemic risk rose after the abolition of contingent share capital in 1958 and the deregulation of the banking sector in the 1970s.

Establishing an EGFR mutation screening service for non-small cell lung cancer - sample quality criteria and candidate histological predictors.

INTRODUCTION: EGFR screening requires good quality tissue, sensitivity and turn-around time (TAT). We report our experience of routine screening, describing sample type, TAT, specimen quality (cellularity and DNA yield), histopathological description, mutation result and clinical outcome. METHODS: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) sections were screened for EGFR mutations (M+) in exons 18-21. Clinical, pathological and screening outcome data were collected for year 1 of testing. Screening outcome alone was collected for year 2. RESULTS: In year 1, 152 samples were tested, most (72%) were diagnostic. TAT was 4.9 days (95%confidence interval (CI)=4.5-5.5). EGFR-M+ prevalence was 11% and higher (20%) among never-smoking women with adenocarcinomas (ADCs), but 30% of mutations occurred in current/ex-smoking men. EGFR-M+ tumours were non-mucinous ADCs and 100% thyroid transcription factor (TTF1+). No mutations were detected in poorly differentiated NSCLC-not otherwise specified (NOS). There was a trend for improved overall survival (OS) among EGFR-M+ versus EGFR-M- patients (median OS=78 versus 17 months). In year 1, test failure rate was 19%, and associated with scant cellularity and low DNA concentrations. However 75% of samples with poor cellularity but representative of tumour were informative and mutation prevalence was 9%. In year 2, 755 samples were tested; mutation prevalence was 13% and test failure only 5.4%. Although samples with low DNA concentration (2.2 ng/μL), the mutation rate was 9.2%. CONCLUSION: Routine epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) screening using diagnostic samples is fast and feasible even on samples with poor cellularity and DNA content. Mutations tend to occur in better-differentiated non-mucinous TTF1+ ADCs. Whether these histological criteria may be useful to select patients for EGFR testing merits further investigation.

Failure to Achieve PSA Level ≤I ng/ml Following Neo-Adjuvant LHRHa Therapy Predicts for a Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated with Radiotherapy

PURPOSE: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to /=2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was 1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of 1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after >/=2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of

Response consistency in young adolescents’ drug use self-reports: a recanting rate analysis.

Aims: To assess the reliability of drug use reports by young respondents, this study examined the extent of recanting previous drug use reports within an ongoing longitudinal survey of adolescent drug use. Here, recanting was defined as a positive report of life-time drug use that was subsequently denied 1 year later. The covariates of recanting were also studied. Design: An ongoing longitudinal survey of young adolescents (Belfast Youth Development Study) in Northern Ireland. Setting: Pencil and paper questionnaires were administered to pupils within participating schools. Measurements: Measures analysed included (a) recanting rates across 13 substances, (b) educational characteristics, (c) offending behaviour and (d) socioeconomic status. Findings: High levels of drug use recanting were identified, ranging from 7% of past alcohol use to 87% of past magic mushroom use. Recanting increased with the social stigma of the substance used. Denying past alcohol use was associated with being male, attending a catholic school, having positive attitudes towards school, having negative education expectations and not reporting any offending behaviour. Recanting alcohol intoxication was associated with being male and not reporting serious offending behaviour. Cannabis recanting was associated with having negative education expectations, receiving drugs education and not reporting serious offending behaviour. Conclusions: The high levels of recanting uncovered cast doubts on the reliability of drug use reports from young adolescents. Failure to address this response error may lead to biased prevalence estimates, particularly within school surveys and drug education evaluation trials.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Scaling in the time-dependent failure of a fiber bundle with local load sharing

We study the scaling behaviors of a time-dependent fiber-bundle model with local load sharing. Upon approaching the complete failure of the bundle, the breaking rate of fibers diverges according to r(t)proportional to(T-f-t)(-xi) where T-f is the lifetime of the bundle and xi approximate to 1.0 is a universal scaling exponent. The average lifetime of the bundle [T-f] scales with the system size as N-delta, where delta depends on the distribution of individual fiber as well as the breakdown rule. [S1063-651X(99)13902-3].

Intensive diabetes therapy and glomerular filtration rate in type 1 diabetes

An impaired glomerular filtration rate (GFR) leads to end-stage renal disease and increases the risks of cardiovascular disease and death. Persons with type 1 diabetes are at high risk for kidney disease, but there are no interventions that have been proved to prevent impairment of the GFR in this population.

Temperature and strain rate dependence of syntactic foam under tensile and shear loads

The behaviour of syntactic foam is strongly dependent on temperature and strain rate. This research focuses on the behaviour of syntactic foam made of epoxy and glass microballoons in the glassy, transition and rubbery regions. Both epoxy and epoxy foam are investigated separately under tension and shear loadings in order to study the strain rate and temperature effects. The results indicate that the strength and strain to failure data can be collapsed onto master curves depending on temperature reduced strain rate. The highest strain to failure occurs in the transition zone. The presence of glass microballoons reduces the strain to failure over the entire range considered, an effect that is particularly significant under tensile loading. However, as the microballoons increase the elastic modulus significantly in the rubbery zone but reduce it somewhat in the glassy zone, the effect on the strength is more complicated. Different failure mechanisms are identified over the temperature-frequency range considered. As the temperature reduced strain rate is decreased, the failure mechanism changes from microballoon fracture to matrix fracture and debonding between the matrix and microballoons. © IMechE 2012.

Factors influencing survival after kidney transplant failure

BACKGROUND: The failure of a kidney transplant is now a common reason for initiation of dialysis therapy. Kidney transplant recipients commencing dialysis have greater morbidity and mortality than transplant-naïve, incident dialysis patients. This study aimed to identify variables associated with survival after graft failure.

METHODS: All recipients of first, deceased donor kidney transplants performed in Northern Ireland between 1986 and 2005 who had a functioning graft at 12 months were included (n = 585). Clinical and blood-derived variables (age, gender, primary renal disease, diabetic status, smoking status, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch, acute rejection episodes, immunosuppression, cardiovascular disease, graft survival, haemoglobin, albumin, phosphate, C reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), rate of eGFR decline, dialysis modality, and access) were collected prospectively and investigated for association with re-transplantation and survival. The association between re-transplantation and survival was explored by modelling re-transplantation as a time-dependent covariate.

RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 12.1 years. Recipients with a failing graft (158/585) demonstrated rapid loss of eGFR prior to graft failure, reducing the time available to plan for alternative renal replacement therapy. Median survival after graft failure was 3.0 years. In multivariate analysis, age and re-transplantation were associated with survival after graft failure. Re-transplantation was associated with an 88% reduction in mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Optimal management of kidney transplant recipients with failing grafts requires early recognition of declining function and proactive preparation for re-transplantation given the substantial survival benefit this confers. The survival benefit associated with re-transplantation persists after prolonged exposure to immunosuppressive therapy.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline as a Predictor of Dialysis in Kidney Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND: It is now common for individuals to require dialysis following the failure of a kidney transplant. Management of complications and preparation for dialysis are suboptimal in this group. To aid planning, it is desirable to estimate the time to dialysis requirement. The rate of decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may be used to this end.

METHODS: This study compared the rate of eGFR decline prior to dialysis commencement between individuals with failing transplants and transplant-naïve patients. The rate of eGFR decline was also compared between transplant recipients with and without graft failure. eGFR was calculated using the four-variable MDRD equation with rate of decline calculated by least squares linear regression.

RESULTS: The annual rate of eGFR decline in incident dialysis patients with graft failure exceeded that of the transplant-naïve incident dialysis patients. In the transplant cohort, the mean annual rate of eGFR decline prior to graft failure was 7.3 ml/min/1.73 m(2) compared to 4.8 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in the transplant-naïve group (p < 0.001) and 0.35 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in recipients without graft failure (p < 0.001). Factors associated with eGFR decline were recipient age, decade of transplantation, HLA mismatch and histological evidence of chronic immunological injury.

CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with graft failure have a rapid decline in eGFR prior to dialysis commencement. To improve outcomes, dialysis planning and management of chronic kidney disease complications should be initiated earlier than in the transplant-naïve population.

Quantum control of photodissociation using intense, femtosecond pulses shaped with third order dispersion

We demonstrate the ability to control the molecular dissociation rate using femtosecond pulses shaped with third-order dispersion (TOD). Explicitly, a significant 50% enhancement in the dissociation yield for the low lying vibrational levels (v ∼ 6) of an H+2 ion-beam target was measured as a function of TOD. The underlying mechanism responsible for this enhanced dissociation was theoretically identified as non-adiabatic alignment induced by the pre-pulses situated on the leading edge of pulses shaped with negative TOD. This control scheme is expected to work in other molecules as it does not rely on specific characteristics of our test-case H+2 molecule.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.