The Size Distribution of US Banks and Credit Unions

This study examines the firm size distribution of US banks and credit unions. A truncated lognormal distribution describes the size distribution, measured using assets data, of a large population of small, community-based commercial banks. The size distribution of a smaller but increasingly dominant cohort of large banks, which operate a high-volume low-cost retail banking model, exhibits power-law behaviour. There is a progressive increase in skewness over time, and Zipf’s Law is rejected as a descriptor of the size distribution in the upper tail. By contrast, the asset size distribution of the population of credit unions conforms closely to the lognormal distribution.

Partial Cooperative Equilibria: Existence and Characterization

We study the solution concepts of partial cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibria and partial cooperative Stackelberg equilibria. The partial cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibrium is axiomatically characterized by using notions of rationality, consistency and converse consistency with regard to reduced games. We also establish sufficient conditions for which partial cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibria and partial cooperative Stackelberg equilibria exist in supermodular games. Finally, we provide an application to strategic network formation where such solution concepts may be useful.

Deliberative Equality and the Transgovernmental Politics of the Global Financial Architecture

Revisiting the concept of transgovernmentalism, originally developed by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, can shed considerable light on the nature of interstate cooperation in contemporary global financial governance. Transgovernmentalism highlights how certain technocratic policy communities, composed of finance ministries, central banks, and regulators, dominate the global financial architecture. It also provides insights into the political and social basis of these actors' interactions and deliberations. Most importantly, renovating the concept of transgovernmentalism brings the participatory deficits in the current global financial architecture into sharp focus and points us in the direction of a workable reform agenda that would expand inclusion and participation. This article advocates basing future reform on efforts to achieve a closer realization of the principle of “deliberative equality.” Unfortunately, “transgovernmentalism” is incompatible with deliberative equality, meaning that it is precisely the transgovernmental characteristics of the current global financial architecture that have to be challenged and overturned if we are to arrive at anything approximating deliberative equality.

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) methodology and readouts

The identification of direct nuclear hormone receptor gene targets provides clues to their contribution to both development and cancer progression. Until recently, the identification of such direct target genes has relied on a combination of expression analysis and in silico searches for consensus binding motifs in gene promoters. Consensus binding motifs for transcription factors are often defined using in vitro DNA binding strategies. Such in vitro strategies fail to account for the many factors that contribute significantly to target selection by transcription factors in cells beyond the recognition of these short consensus DNA sequences. These factors include DNA methylation, chromatin structure, posttranslational modifications of transcription factors, and the cooperative recruitment of transcription factor complexes. Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) provides a means of isolating transcription factor complexes in the context of endogenous chromatin, allowing the identification of direct transcription factor targets. ChIP can be combined with site-specific PCR for candidate binding sites or alternatively with cloning, genomic microarrays or more recently direct high throughput sequencing to identify novel genomic targets. The application of ChIP-based approaches has redefined consensus binding motifs for transcription factors and provided important insights into transcription factor biology.

Regulating Digital Financial Services Agents in Developing Countries to Promote Financial Inclusion

Limited access to bank branches excludes over one billion people from accessing financial services in developing countries. Digital financial services offered by banks and mobile money providers through agents can solve this problem without the need for complex and costly physical banking infrastructures. Delivering digital financial services through agents requires a legal framework to regulate liability. This article analyses whether vicarious liability of the principal is a more efficient regulatory approach than personal liability of the agent. Agent liability in Kenya, Fiji, and Malawi is analysed to demonstrate that vicarious liability of the principal, coupled to an explicit agreement as to agent rewards and penalties, is the more efficient regulatory approach.

The role of the seed bank in recovery of temperate heath and blanket bog following wildfires

Questions - Are the germinable seed banks of upland heath and blanket bog reduced following wildfires? Are some species at particular risk? Do the impacts of wildfires on seed banks differ between heathlands and blanket bog?

Location - Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.

Methods - Vegetation surveys and seed bank sampling were conducted in 2012 at burned and unburned areas within six upland sites where large wildfires had occurred during spring 2011. Differences in seedling abundance, species richness and Jaccard similarity indices between burned and unburned areas were compared using GLMMs. Differences in the community composition were examined using pRDA.

Results - In total, 24 of the 51 species in the vegetation were detected in the germinable seed bank. Species richness and the abundance of seedlings other than Calluna vulgaris were lower in areas where wildfires had occurred. Species composition of both germinable seed banks and vegetation differed between burned and unburned areas within sites; with negative associations between burned areas and some key indicator species including Drosera rotundifolia, Eriophorum vaginatum, Empetrum nigrum, Narthecium ossifragum and Trichophorum germanicum. We did not find any evidence of significant interactions between burning and habitat, suggesting that wildfires had similar impacts on each species regardless of the habitat in which they occurred.

Conclusions - This study differs from other UK studies in that it examines impacts of wildfires at sites that have not been previously intensively managed by burning. In particular, we highlight potential impacts on N. ossifragum and D. rotundifolia, which are key components of the upland flora and, to our knowledge, were not present in previous UK studies.

Full-Duplex Spectrum Sharing in Cooperative Single Carrier Systems

We propose cyclic prefix single carrier full-duplex transmission in amplify-and-forward cooperative spectrum sharing networks to achieve multipath diversity and full-duplex spectral efficiency. Integrating full-duplex transmission into cooperative spectrum sharing systems results in two intrinsic problems: 1) the residual loop interference occurs between the transmit and the receive antennas at the secondary relays and 2) the primary users simultaneously suffer interference from the secondary source (SS) and the secondary relays (SRs). Thus, examining the effects of residual loop interference under peak interference power constraint at the primary users and maximum transmit power constraints at the SS and the SRs is a particularly challenging problem in frequency selective fading channels. To do so, we derive and quantitatively compare the lower bounds on the outage probability and the corresponding asymptotic outage probability for max–min relay selection, partial relay selection, and maximum interference relay selection policies in frequency selective fading channels. To facilitate comparison, we provide the corresponding analysis for half-duplex. Our results show two complementary regions, named as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) dominant region and the residual loop interference dominant region, where the multipath diversity and spatial diversity can be achievable only in the SNR dominant region, however the diversity gain collapses to zero in the residual loop interference dominant region.

Bio-folio: applying portfolio theory to biodiversity

Genes, species and ecosystems are often considered to be assets. The need to ensure a sufficient diversity of this asset is being increasingly recognised today. Asset managers in banks and insurance companies face a similar challenge. They are asked to manage the assets of their investors by constructing efficient portfolios. They deliberately make use of a phenomenon observed in the formation of portfolios: returns are additive, while risks diversify. This phenomenon and its implications are at the heart of portfolio theory. Portfolio theory, like few other economic theories, has dramatically transformed the practical work of banks and insurance companies. Before portfolio theory was developed about 50 years ago, asset managers were confronted with a situation similar to the situation the research on biodiversity faces today. While the need for diversification was generally accepted, a concept that linked risk and return on a portfolio level and showed the value of diversification was missing. Portfolio theory has closed this gap. This article first explains the fundamentals of portfolio theory and transfers it to biodiversity. A large part of this article is then dedicated to some of the implications portfolio theory has for the valuation and management of biodiversity. The last section introduces three development openings for further research.

Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This article answers this question by analysing the effect of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s on 142 banks, of which 33 failed. We find that choices of balance sheet composition and product market strategy made in the lead-up to the crisis had a significant impact on banks’ subsequent chances of experiencing distress. We document that high-risk banks – those operating highly-leveraged portfolios and attracting large quantities of deposits – were more likely to fail. Branching and international activities also increased banks’ default probabilities. We measure the effects of board interlocks, which have been characterized in the extant literature as contributing to the Dutch crisis. We find that boards mattered: failing banks had smaller boards, shared directors with smaller and very profitable banks and had a lower concentration of interlocking directorates in non-financial firms.