A Risky Business: An Examination of Irish Probation Officers Attitudes and Work Practices Regarding Risk Assessment

This article examines recent research on risk assessment and probation practice in Ireland and relates the findings to the ongoing debate regarding risk management practices in probation. The piece discusses current theoretical arguments on the influence of risk in criminal justice and outlines the impact of risk discourse on probation practice in Ireland and England and Wales. Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, Irish probation officers’ attitudes are examined in order to highlight key issues facing probation officers when making risk decisions. These findings are compared and contrasted to other research results from England and Wales. All the conclusions identify both positive and negative consequences of adopting risk tools and point to the continued salience of clinical judgment over actuarial methods of risk assessment. It is argued that the research highlights the role of ‘resistance’ by criminal justice professionals in mediating the effects of the ‘new penology’ at the level of implementation. The idea of resistance holds particular relevance for probation practice in Ireland where professional discretion is maintained within the National Standards framework. Despite this, to date there has been an uncritical approach taken to risk assessment which may ignore the dangers of risk inflation/deflation and the need to take into account local factors in assessing risk of reoffending

Risk factors for the introduction and within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in 59 Irish dairy herds

Since 1994, Irish cattle have been exposed to greater risks of acquiring Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection as a consequence of the importation of over 70,000 animals from continental Europe. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of reported clinical cases of paratuberculosis in Ireland. This study examines the prevalence of factors that promote the introduction and within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) on selected Irish dairy farms in the Cork region, and the association between these factors and the results of MAP screening tests on milk sock filter residue (MFR). A total of 59 dairy farms, selected using non-random methods but apparently free of endemic paratuberculosis, were enrolled into the study. A questionnaire was used to collect data about risk factors for MAP introduction and transmission. The MFR was assessed on six occasions over 24 months for the presence of MAP, using culture and immunomagnetic separation prior to polymerase chain reaction (IMS-PCR). Furthermore, blood samples from all entire male and female animals over one year of age in 20 herds were tested by ELISA. Eighteen (31%) farms had operated as closed herds since 1994, 28 (47%) had purchased from multiple sources and 14 (24%) had either direct or indirect (progeny) contact with imported animals. Milk and colostrum were mixed on 51% of farms, while 88% of farms fed pooled milk. Thirty (51%) herds tested negative to MFR culture and IMS-PCR, 12 (20%) were MFR culture positive, 26 (44%) were IMS-PCR positive and seven (12%) were both culture and IMS-PCR positive. The probability of a positive MFR culture was significantly associated with reduced attendance at calving, and with increased use of individual calf pens and increased (but not significantly) if multiple suckling was practised. There was poor agreement between MFR culture and MFR IMS-PCR results, but moderate agreement between MFR culture and ELISA test results. This study highlights a lack of awareness among Irish dairy farmers about the effect of inadequate biosecurity on MAP introduction. Furthermore, within-herd transmission will be facilitated by traditional calf rearing and waste management practices. The findings of viable MAP in the presence of known transmission factors in non-clinically affected herds could be a prelude to long-term problems for the Irish cattle and agri-business generally.

Determinants of long-distance investing by business angels in the UK

The business angel market is usually identified as a local market, and the proximity of an investment has been shown to be key in the angel's investment preferences and an important filter at the screening stage of the investment decision. This is generally explained by the personal and localized networks used to identify potential investments, the hands-on involvement of the investor and the desire to minimize risk. However, a significant minority of investments are long distance. This paper is based on data from 373 investments made by 109 UK business angels. We classify the location of investments into three groups: local investments ( those made within the same county or in adjacent counties); intermediate investments ( those made in counties adjacent to the 'local' counties); and long-distance investments ( those made beyond this range). Using ordered logit analysis the paper develops and tests a number of hypotheses that relate long-distance investment to investment characteristics and investor characteristics. The paper concludes by drawing out the implications for entrepreneurs seeking business angel finance in investment-deficient regions, business angel networks seeking to match investors to entrepreneurs and firms ( which are normally their primary clients), and for policy-makers responsible for local and regional economic development.

Vitamin D receptor gene variants and esophageal adenocarcinoma risk:A population-based case-control study

Purpose: Polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene may be of etiological importance in determining cancer risk. The aim of this study was to assess the association between common VDR gene polymorphisms and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) risk in an all-Ireland population-based case-control study. Methods: EAC cases and frequency-matched controls by age and gender recruited between March 2002 and December 2004 throughout Ireland were included. Participants were interviewed, and a blood sample collected for DNA extraction. Twenty-seven single nucleotide polymorphisms in the VDR gene were genotyped using Sequenom or TaqMan assays while the poly(A) microsatellite was genotyped by fluorescent fragment analysis. Unconditional logistic regression was applied to assess the association between VDR polymorphisms and EAC risk. Results: A total of 224 cases of EAC and 256 controls were involved in analyses. After adjustment for potential confounders, TT homozygotes at rs2238139 and rs2107301 had significantly reduced risks of EAC compared with CC homozygotes. In contrast, SS alleles of the poly(A) microsatellite had significantly elevated risks of EAC compared with SL/LL alleles. However, following permutation analyses to adjust for multiple comparisons, no significant associations were observed between any VDR gene polymorphism and EAC risk. Conclusions: VDR gene polymorphisms were not significantly associated with EAC development in this Irish population. Confirmation is required from larger studies. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and brain tumour risk:a case-control study within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Purpose: The aetiology of primary brain tumours is largely unknown; the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or aspirin use and glioma risk has been inconclusive, but few population-based studies with reliable prescribing data have been conducted, and the association with meningioma risk has yet to be assessed. Methods: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used to assess the association between aspirin and non-aspirin NSAID use and primary brain tumour risk using a nested case-control study design. Conditional logistic regression analysis was performed on 5,052 brain tumour patients aged 16 years and over, diagnosed between 1987 and 2009 and 42,678 controls matched on year of birth, gender and general practice, adjusting for history of allergy and hormone replacement therapy use in the glioma and meningioma models, respectively.

Results: In conditional logistic regression analysis, excluding drug use in the year preceding the index date, there was no association with non-aspirin NSAID use (OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.81-1.13) or glioma risk comparing the highest category of daily defined dose to non-users; however, non-aspirin NSAID use was positively associated with meningioma risk (OR 1.35, 95 % CI 1.06-1.71). No association was seen with high- or low-dose aspirin use irrespective of histology.

Conclusions: This large nested case-control study finds no association between aspirin or non-aspirin NSAID use and risk of glioma but a slight increased risk with non-aspirin NSAIDs and meningioma. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Vulnerability and robustness of SME supply chains: An empirical study of risk and disturbance management of fresh food processors in a developing market

The aim of this paper is to analyse vulnerability and robustness of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) supply chains and to consider contextual factors that might influence the success of their disturbance management: Risky product and business environment. By using an exploratory case study it is shown how these contextual factors attribute vulnerability sources, contribute to the robustness of a company’s performance and supply chain vulnerability, as well as how a company seeks to manage internal and external vulnerability sources. The exploratory case is based on a fresh food supply chain of a manufacturing SME operating in a developing market.
Case findings suggest that fresh food supply chains of a manufacturing SME in developing markets are prone to disruptions of their logistics and production processes due to ‘riskiness’ of fresh food products, the ‘riskiness’ of developing markets, as well as ‘riskiness’ of SMEs themselves. However, this does not necessarily indicate the vulnerability of an SME and its entire supply chain. Findings indicate that SMEs can be very successful in disturbance management by selective use of redesign strategies that aim to prevent or reduce the impact of disturbances. More precise, it is likely that an SME can achieve robust performance by employing preventive redesign strategies in managing disturbances that result from internal, company related vulnerability sources, while impact reduction strategies are likely to contribute to robust performance of an SME if used to manage disturbances that result from internal, supply chain related vulnerability sources, as well as external vulnerability sources.