Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Covariance Averaging for Improved Estimation and Portfolio Allocation

We propose a new method for estimating the covariance matrix of a multivariate time series of nancial returns. The method is based on estimating sample covariances from overlapping windows of observations which are then appropriately weighted to obtain the nal covariance estimate. We extend the idea of (model) covariance averaging o ered in the covariance shrinkage approach by means of greater ease of use, exibility and robustness in averaging information over different data segments. The suggested approach does not su er from the curse of dimensionality and can be used without problems of either approximation or any demand for numerical optimization.

Low-power DWT-based quasi-averaging algorithm and architecture for epileptic seizure detection

In this paper, we have developed a low-complexity algorithm for epileptic seizure detection with a high degree of accuracy. The algorithm has been designed to be feasibly implementable as battery-powered low-power implantable epileptic seizure detection system or epilepsy prosthesis. This is achieved by utilizing design optimization techniques at different levels of abstraction. Particularly, user-specific critical parameters are identified at the algorithmic level and are explicitly used along with multiplier-less implementations at the architecture level. The system has been tested on neural data obtained from in-vivo animal recordings and has been implemented in 90nm bulk-Si technology. The results show up to 90 % savings in power as compared to prevalent wavelet based seizure detection technique while achieving 97% average detection rate. Copyright 2010 ACM.

Role of IP(3) in modulation of spontaneous activity in pacemaker cells of rabbit urethra.

Isolated interstitial ("pacemaker") cells from rabbit urethra were examined using the perforated-patch technique. Under voltage clamp at -60 mV, these cells fired large spontaneous transient inward currents (STICs), averaging -860 pA and >1 s in duration, which could account for urethral pacemaker activity. Spontaneous transient outward currents (STOCs) were also observed and fell into two categories, "fast" (1 s in duration). The latter were coupled to STICs, suggesting that they shared the same mechanism, while the former occurred independently at faster rates. All of these currents were abolished by cyclopiazonic acid, caffeine, or ryanodine, suggesting that they were activated by Ca(2+) release. When D-myo-inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP(3))-sensitive stores were blocked with 2-aminoethoxydiphenyl borate, the STICs and slow STOCs were abolished, but the fast STOCs remained. In contrast, the fast STOCs were more nifedipine sensitive than the STICs or the slow STOCs. These results suggest that while fast STOCs are mediated by a mechanism similar to STOCs in smooth muscle, STICs and slow STOCs are driven by IP(3). These results support the hypothesis that pacemaker activity in the urethra is driven by the IP(3)-sensitive store. PMID: 11287348 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Effective collision strengths for electron impact excitation of C1III

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the phosphorus-like ion Cl III are presented for all fine- structure transitions among the levels arising from the lowest 23 LS states. The collisional cross sections are computed in the multichannel close-coupling R-matrix approximation, where sophisticated configuration-interaction wave functions are used to represent the target states. The 23 LS states are formed from the basis configurations 3s(2)3p(3). 3s3p(4). 3s(2)3p(2)3d, and 3s(2)3p(2)4s, and correspond to 49 fine- structure levels, leading to a total possible 1176 fine- structure transitions. The effective collision strengths. obtained by averaging the electron collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. are tabulated in this paper for all 1176 transitions and for electron temperatures in the ranges T(K) = 7500-25.000 and log T(K) = 4.4-5.3. The former range encompasses the temperatures of particular importance for application to gaseous nebulae. while the latter range is more applicable to the study of solar and laboratory-type plasmas. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Effective collision strengths for electron impact excitation of Si VIII

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the nitrogen-like ion Si VIII are presented over the wide range of electron temperatures log T(K) = 4.0-6.5. All 231 fine- structure transitions among the 22 fine-structure levels arising from the lowest 11 LS target states (2s(2)2p(3), 2s2p(4), 2p(5), and 2s(2)2p(2)3s) are considered in the tabulation. The collision strengths are evaluated in a multi- channel R-matrix approach, and the corresponding effective collision strengths are obtained by averaging these over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. Comparisons are made with recent distorted-wave results at high incident electron energies. Differences of up to 20% are found, particularly for some allowed transitions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functionsfor temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a)

The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 lg l)1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination (r2 jack) of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an r2 jack of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10lg l)1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.

Dissociation of H2+ from a short, intense, infrared laser pulse: proton emission spectra and pulse calibration

The proton energy spectrum from photodissociation of the hydrogen molecular ion by short intense pulses of infrared light is calculated. The time-dependent Schrödinger equation is discretized and integrated. For few-cycle pulses one can resolve vibrational structure, arising from the experimental preparation of the molecular ion. We calculate the corresponding energy spectrum and analyse the dependence on the pulse time delay, pulse length and intensity of the laser for ? ~ 790 nm. We conclude that the proton spectrum is a sensitive probe of both the vibrational populations and phases, and allows us to distinguish between adiabatic and nonadiabatic dissociation. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the proton spectrum from H2+ is a practical means of calibrating the pulse. Our results are compared with recent measurements of the proton spectrum for 65 fs pulses using a Ti:Sapphire laser (? ~ 790 nm) including molecular orientation and focal-volume averaging. Integrating over the laser focal volume, for the intensity I ~ 3 × 1015 W cm-2, we find our results are in excellent agreement with these experiments.

Demonstration of glycated insulin in human diabetic plasma and decreased biological activity assessed by euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp technique in humans

The presence and biological significance of circulating glycated insulin has been evaluated by high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS), radioimmunoassay (RIA), receptor binding, and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp techniques. ESI-MS analysis of an HPLC-purified plasma pool from four male type 2 diabetic subjects (HbA(1e) 8.1 +/- 0.2%, plasma glucose 8.7 +/- 1.3 mmol/l [means +/- SE]) revealed two major insulin-like peaks with retention times of 14-16 min. After spectral averaging, the peak with retention time of 14.32 min exhibited a prominent triply charged (M+3H)(3+) species at 1,991.1 m/z, representing monoglycated insulin with an intact M-r of 5,970.3 Da. The second peak (retention time 15.70 min) corresponded to native insulin (M-r 5,807.6 Da), with the difference between the two peptides (162.7 Da) representing a single glucitol adduct (theoretical 164 Da). Measurement of glycated insulin in plasma of type 2 diabetic subjects by specific RIA gave circulating levels of 10.1 +/- 2.3 pmol/l, corresponding to -9% total insulin. Biological activity of pure synthetic monoglycated insulin (insulin B-chain Phe(1)-glucitol adduct) was evaluated in seven overnight-fasted healthy nonobese male volunteers using two-step euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps (2 h at 16.6 mug (.) kg(-1) (.) min(-1), followed by 2 h at 83.0 mug (.) kg(-1) (.) min(-1); corresponding to 0.4 and 2.0 mU (.) kg(-1) (.) min(-1)). At the lower dose, the exogenons glucose infusion rates required to maintain euglycemia during steady state were significantly lower with glycated insulin (P

A Van der Pol-Mathieu equation for the dynamics of dust grain charge in dusty plasmas

The chaotic profile of dust grain dynamics associated with dust-acoustic oscillations in a dusty plasma is considered. The collective behaviour of the dust plasma component is described via a multi-fluid model, comprising Boltzmann distributed electrons and ions, as well as an equation of continuity possessing a source term for the dust grains, the dust momentum and Poisson's equations. A Van der Pol–Mathieu-type nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the dust grain density dynamics is derived. The dynamical system is cast into an autonomous form by employing an averaging method. Critical stability boundaries for a particular trivial solution of the governing equation with varying parameters are specified. The equation is analysed to determine the resonance region, and finally numerically solved by using a fourth-order Runge–Kutta method. The presence of chaotic limit cycles is pointed out.

Controls on the contemporary distribution of lake thecamoebians (testate amoebae) in the Greater Toronto Area and their potential as water quality indicators.

Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, r jack 2= 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.

Electron impact excitation of Kr XXXII

Collision strengths (Ω) have been calculated for all 7750 transitions among the lowest 125 levels belonging to the View the MathML source, and 2p23ℓ configurations of boron-like krypton, Kr XXXII, for which the Dirac Atomic R -matrix Code has been adopted. All partial waves with angular momentum J⩽40 have been included, sufficient for the convergence of Ω for forbidden transitions. For allowed transitions, a top-up has been included in order to obtain converged values of Ω up to an energy of 500 Ryd. Resonances in the thresholds region have been resolved in a narrow energy mesh, and results for effective collision strengths (ϒ) have been obtained after averaging the values of Ω over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. Values of ϒ are reported over a wide temperature range below View the MathML source, and the accuracy of the results is assessed. Values of ϒ are also listed in the temperature range View the MathML source, obtained from the nonresonant collision strengths from the Flexible Atomic Code.

Breit-Pauli R-matrix calculation of fine-structure effective collision strengths for the electron impact excitation of Mg V

Context. Electron-impact excitation collision strengths are required for the analysis and interpretation of stellar observations.
Aims. This calculation aims to provide effective collision strengths for the Mg V ion for a larger number of transitions and for a greater temperature range than previously available, using collision strength data that include contributions from resonances.
Methods. A 19-state Breit-Pauli R-matrix calculation was performed. The target states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and consist of the 19 lowest LS states, having configurations 2s22p4, 2s2p5, 2p6, 2s22p33s, and 2s22p33p. These target states give rise to 37 fine-structure levels and 666 possible transitions. The effective collision strengths were calculated by averaging the electron collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities.
Results. The non-zero effective collision strengths for transitions between the fine-structure levels are given for electron temperatures in the range = 3.0 - 7.0. Data for transitions among the 5 fine-structure levels arising from the 2s22p4 ground state configurations, seen in the UV range, are discussed in the paper, along with transitions in the EUV range – transitions from the ground state 3P levels to 2s2p5?3P levels. The 2s22p4?1D–2s2p5?1P transition is also noted. Data for the remaining transitions are available at the CDS.