A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary exposure to aflatoxin from maize and groundnut in young children from Benin and Togo, West Africa

Aflatoxins are a family of fungal toxins that are carcinogenic to man and cause immunosuppression, cancer and growth reduction in animals. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 480 children (age 9 months to 5 years) across 4 agroecological zones (SS, NGS, SGS and CS) in Benin and Togo to identify the effect of aflatoxin exposure on child growth and assess the pattern of exposure. Prior reports on this study [Gong, Y.Y., Cardwell, K., Hounsa, A., Egal, S., Turner, Hall, A.J., Wild, C.P., 2002. Dietary aflatoxin exposure and impaired growth in young children from Benin and Togo: cross sectional study. British Medical Journal 325, 20-21, Gong, Y.Y., Egal, S., Hounsa, A., Turner, P.C., Hall, A.J., Cardwell, K., Wild, C.P., 2003. Determinants of aflatoxin exposure in young children from Benin and Togo, West Africa: the critical role of weaning and weaning foods. International Journal of Epidemiology, 32, 556-562] showed that aflatoxin exposure among these children is widespread (99%) and that growth faltering is associated with high blood aflatoxinalbumin adducts (AF-alb adducts), a measure of recent past exposure. The present report demonstrates that consumption of maize is an important source of aflatoxin exposure for the survey population. Higher AF-alb adducts were correlated with higher A. flavus (CFU) infestation of maize (p=0.006), higher aflatoxin contamination (ppb) of maize (p<0.0001) and higher consumption frequencies of maize (p=0.053). The likelihood of aflatoxin exposure from maize was particularly high in agro-ecological zones where the frequency of maize consumption (SGS and CS), the presence of allatoxin in maize (SGS) or the presence of A. flavus on maize (NGS and SGS) was relatively high. Socio-economic background did not affect the presence of A. flavus and aflatoxin in maize, but better maternal education was associated with lower frequencies of maize consumption among children from the northernmost agro-ecological zone (SS) (p=0.001). The impact of groundinit consumption on aflatoxin exposure was limited in this population. High AF-alb adduct levels were correlated with high prevalence of A. flavus and aflatoxin in groundinit, but significance was weak after adjustment for weaning status, agro-ecological zone and maternal socio-economic status (resp. p = 0.091 and p = 0.083). Ingestion of A. flavus and aflatoxin was high in certain agro-ecological zones (SS and SGS) and among the higher socio-economic strata due to higher frequencies of groundnut consumption. Contamination of groundnuts was similar across socio-economic and agroecological boundaries.

In conclusion, dietary exposure to aflatoxin from groundnut was less than from maize in young children from Benin and Togo. Intervention strategies that aim to reduce dietary exposure in this population need to focus on maize consumption in particular, but they should not ignore consumption of groundnuts. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of aflatoxin exposure in young children from Benin and Togo, West Africa: the critical role of weaning

Background Dietary exposure to high levels of the fungal toxin, aflatoxin, occurs in West Africa, where long-term crop storage facilitates fungal growth.

Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study in Benin and Togo to investigate aflatoxin exposure in children around the time of weaning and correlated these data with food consumption, socioeconomic status, agro-ecological zone of residence, and anthropometric measures. Blood samples from 479 children (age 9 months to 5 years) from 16 villages in four agro-ecological zones were assayed for aflatoxin-albumin adducts (AF-alb) as a measure of recent past (2-3 months) exposure.

Results Aflatoxin-albumin adducts were detected in 475/479 (99%) children (geometric mean 32.8 pg/mg, 95% CI: 25.3-42.5). Adduct levels varied markedly across agro-ecological zones with mean levels being approximately four times higher in the central than in the northern region. The AF-alb level increased with age up to 3 years, and within the 1-3 year age group was significantly (P=0.0001) related to weaning status; weaned children had approximately twofold higher mean AF-alb adduct levels (38 pg AF-lysine equivalents per mg of albumin [pg/mg]) than those receiving a mixture of breast milk and solid foods after adjustment for age, sex, agro-ecological zone, and socioeconomic status. A higher frequency of maize consumption, but not groundnut consumption, by the child in the preceding week was correlated with higher AF-alb adduct level. We previously reported that the prevalence of stunted growth (height for age Z-score HAZ) and being underweight (weight for age Z-score WAZ) were 33% and 29% respectively by World Health Organziation criteria. Children in these two categories had 30-40% higher mean AF-alb levels than the remainder of the children and strong dose- response relationships were observed between AF-alb levels and the extent of stunting and being underweight.

Conclusions Exposure to this common toxic contaminant of West African food increases markedly following weaning and exposure early in life is associated with reduced growth. These observations reinforce the need for aflatoxin exposure intervention strategies within high-risk countries, possibly targeted specifically at foods used in the post-weaning period.

Seasonal and geographical differences in aflatoxin exposures in Senegal

The aim of the study was to determine the geographical and seasonal variations in aflatoxin dietary exposure levels in adults from Senegal. A total of 168 adults (50% male) were recruited from three districts: Nioro du Rip (n=90), located in the Sudan Savannah agro-ecological zone where rainfall is sufficient for groundnut growth; Saint-Louis (n=40) and Mboro (n=38), located in the Sahel zone where groundnuts are produced under irrigated conditions. Diet information and samples were collected at groundnut harvest and post-harvest seasons. Plasma aflatoxin-albumin adducts (AF-alb) and total aflatoxin in household groundnut samples were measured by ELISA and a quantitative thin layer chromatography method, respectively. The blood AF-alb geometric mean was 45.7 pg/mg albumin (range 5.5-588.2 pg/mg). Nioro du Rip had a higher AF-alb level at harvest than Saint-Louis and Mboro (80.0 vs 15.6 and 33.3 pg/mg, P<0.001). Similar trends were observed at post-harvest (P<0.05). Seasonal trends were not consistent across the districts as Nioro du Rip had a higher AF-alb level at harvest than post-harvest (80.0 vs 58.6 pg/mg, P=0.026), whereas Saint-Louis had a higher level at post-harvest than harvest (25.6 vs 15.6 pg/mg, P=0.032). It is clear that aflatoxin exposure is prevalent in adults from Senegal and that season and geographical location are strong determinants of aflatoxin exposure.

Determination of multi-mycotoxin occurrence in maize based porridges from selected regions of Tanzania by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), a longitudinal study

Residents of certain areas of Tanzania are exposed to mycotoxins through the consumption of contaminated maize based foods. In this study, 101 maize based porridge samples were collected from villages of Nyabula, Kikelelwa and Kigwa located in different agro-ecological zones of Tanzania. The samples were collected at three time points (time point 1, during maize harvest; time point 2, 6 months after harvest; time point 3, 12 months after harvest) over a 1-year period. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) was used to detect and quantify 9 mycotoxins: aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), aflatoxin B2 (AFB2), aflatoxin G1 (AFG1), aflatoxin G2 (AFG2), fumonisin B1 (FB1), fumonisin B2 (FB2), deoxynivalenol (DON), ochratoxin A (OTA) and zearaleneone (ZEN) in the samples following a QuEChERS extraction method. Eighty two percent of samples were co-contaminated with more than one group of mycotoxins. Fumonisins (FB1 + FB2) had the highest percentage occurrence in all 101 samples (100%) whereas OTA had the lowest (5%). For all three villages the mean concentration of FB1 was lowest in samples taken from time point 2. Conversely, In Kigwa village there was a distinct trend that AFB1 mean concentration was highest in samples taken from time point 2. DON concentration did not differ greatly between time points but the percentage occurrence varied between villages, most notably in Kigwa where 0% of samples tested positive. ZEN occurrence and mean concentration was highest in Kikelelwa. The results suggest that mycotoxin contamination in maize can vary based on season and agro-ecological zones. The high occurrence of multiple mycotoxins found in maize porridge, a common weaning food in Tanzania, presents a potential increase in the risk of exposure and significant health implications in children.

Summary statistics, educational achievement gaps and the ecological fallacy

Summary statistics continue to play an important role in identifying and monitoring patterns and trends in educational inequalities between differing groups of pupils over time. However, this article argues that their uncritical use can also encourage the labelling of whole groups of pupils as ‘underachievers’ or ‘overachievers’ as the findings of group-level data are simply applied to individual group members, a practice commonly termed the ‘ecological fallacy’. Some of the adverse consequences of this will be outlined in relation to current debates concerning gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be argued that one way of countering this uncritical use of summary statistics and the ecological fallacy that it tends to encourage, is to make much more use of the principles and methods of what has been termed ‘exploratory data analysis’. Such an approach is illustrated through a secondary analysis of data from the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales, focusing on gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be shown that, by placing an emphasis on the graphical display of data and on encouraging researchers to describe those data more qualitatively, such an approach represents an essential addition to the use of simple summary statistics and helps to avoid the limitations associated with them.

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.