IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the (super 14) C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0 - 50,000 years cal BP

The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the ¹⁴C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0-12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org.

Methods and code for 'classical' age-modelling of radiocarbon sequences.

Age–depth models form the backbone of most palaeoenvironmental studies. However, procedures for constructing chronologies vary between studies, they are usually not explained sufficiently, and some are inadequate for handling calibrated radiocarbon dates. An alternative method based on importance sampling through calibrated dates is proposed. Dedicated R code is presented which works with calibrated radiocarbon as well as other dates, and provides a simple, systematic, transparent, documented and customizable alternative. The code automatically produces age–depth models, enabling exploration of the impacts of different assumptions (e.g., model type, hiatuses, age offsets, outliers, and extrapolation).

A revised age for the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key marker for the Last Glacial Maximum in New Zealand

The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra (KOT) is a key chronostratigraphic marker in terrestrial and marine deposits of the New Zealand (NZ) sector of the southwest Pacific. Erupted early during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the wide distribution of the KOT enables inter-regional alignment of proxy records and facilitates comparison between NZ climatic variations and those from well-dated records elsewhere. We present 22 new radiocarbon ages for the KOT from sites and materials considered optimal for dating, and apply Bayesian statistical methods via OxCal4.1.7 that incorporate stratigraphic information to develop a new age probability model for KOT. The revised calibrated age, ±2 standard deviations, for the eruption of the KOT is 25,360 ± 160 cal yr BP. The age revision provides a basis for refining marine reservoir ages for the LGM in the southwest Pacific.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Calibrated integrated backscatter and myocardial fibrosis in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Objective - The reported association between calibrated integrated backscatter (cIB) and myocardial fibrosis is based on study of patients with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and extensive (mean 15–34%) fibrosis. Its association with lesser degrees of fibrosis is unknown. We examined the relationship between cIB and myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods - Myocardial histology was examined in left ventricular epicardial biopsies from 40 patients (29 men and 11 women) undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery, who had preoperative echocardiography with cIB measurement.

Results - Total fibrosis (picrosirius red staining) varied from 0.7% to 4%, and in contrast to previous reports, cIB showed weak inverse associations with total fibrosis (r=−0.32, p=0.047) and interstitial fibrosis (r=−0.34, p=0.03). However, cIB was not significantly associated with other histological parameters, including immunostaining for collagens I and III, the advanced glycation end product (AGE) Nε-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML) and the receptor for AGEs (RAGE). When biomarkers were examined, cIB was weakly associated with log plasma levels of amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (r=0.34, p=0.03), creatinine (r=0.33, p=0.04) and glomerular filtration rate (r=−0.33, p=0.04), and was more strongly associated with log plasma levels of soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (sVEGFR-1) (r=0.44, p=0.01) and soluble RAGE (r=0.53, p=0.002).

Conclusions - Higher cIB was not a marker of increased myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease, but was associated with higher plasma levels of sVEGFR-1 and soluble RAGE. The role of cIB as a non-invasive index of fibrosis in clinical studies of patients without extensive fibrosis is, therefore, questionable.