Prevalence of the different types of age-related cataract in an African population.

PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of different types of cataract and their association with visual acuity in a Tanzanian population aged 40 years and older. METHODS: A prevalence survey for lens opacity, glaucoma, and visual impairment was carried out on all residents age 40 and older of six villages in Kongwa, Tanzania. One examiner graded the lens for presence of nuclear (NSC), posterior subcapsular (PSC), and cortical cataract (CC), using the new WHO Simplified Cataract Grading System. Visual acuity was measured in each eye, both presenting and best corrected, using an illiterate E chart. RESULTS: The proportion of eligible subjects participating was 90% (3268/3641). The prevalence of cataract was as follows: NSC, 15.6%; CC, 8.8%; and PSC, 1.9%. All types of cataract increased with age, from NSC, 1.7%; CC, 2.4%; and PSC, 0.4% for those aged 40 to 49 years to NSC, 59.2%; CC, 23.5%; and PSC, 5.9% for those aged 70 years and older (P < 0.0001 for all cataract types, chi(2) test for trend). Cataract prevalence was higher among women than men for NSC (P = 0.0001), but not for CC (P = 0.15) or PSC (P = 0.25), after adjusting for age. Prevalence rates of visual impairment (BCVA < 6/12), US blindness (< or = 6/60) and WHO blindness (< 6/120) for this population were 13.3%, 2.1%, and 1.3%, respectively. Older age and each of the major types of pure and mixed cataract were independently associated with worse vision in regression modeling. CONCLUSIONS: Unlike African-derived populations in Salisbury and Barbados, NSC rather than CC was most prevalent in this African population. The seeming lower prevalence of CC may to some extent be explained by different grading schemes, differential availability of cataract surgery, the younger mean age of the Tanzanian subjects, and a higher prevalence of NSC in this population.

Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

ANRIL Variants and Aggressive Periodontitis in European and African Populations

Introduction: The chromosome 9p21 locus has been identified as a marker of coronary artery disease. In this locus studies have focused on variations in the ANRIL gene that has also been identified as a strong candidate for association with aggressive periodontitis (AgP).
Objective: To investigate possible associations between gene variants of ANRIL and AgP in European and African populations.
Methods: European AgP cases (n= 213) and age-matched periodontally healthy controls (n= 81) were recruited from centres in the United Kingdom (Belfast, Glasgow, Newcastle and London). African AgP cases (n= 95) and controls (n= 105) were recruited in Khartoum, Sudan. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ANRIL were genotyped using Sequenom and analysed using Haploview with permutation testing to correct for multiple candidates. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated.
Results: In the European subjects there was a significant association between rs518394 (p=0.0013; OR = 1.81, 95%CI 1.26-2.61) and rs1333049 (p=0.0028; OR = 1.75, 95%CI 1.21-2.52) and AgP. These associations remained significant after permutation testing. In addition there was an association between rs 1360590 (p=0.035) and AgP in females. In the African subjects there was a significant association between only one SNP rs1537415 and AgP (p=0.036; OR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.04-2.43), however, this was not significant following permutation testing. There were no significant associations with rs3217992 in either population.
Conclusions: SNP variants in the ANRIL locus were shown to be significantly associated with AgP in a European population and for the first time in an African population confirming this as the best replicated locus for aggressive periodontitis.

Validation of night blindness reports among children and women in a vitamin A deficient population in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: This study validates different definitions of reported night blindness (XN) in a vitamin A deficient African population with no local term for XN. DESIGN: Case-control study with follow-up after treatment. SETTING: Eight primary schools and health centres in rural Tanzania. SUBJECTS: A total of 1214 participants were screened for reported XN and other eye signs of xerophthalmia: 461 children aged 24-71 months, 562 primary school-age children and 191 pregnant or breast-feeding women. All 152 cases of reported XN were selected for the validation study and group matched with 321 controls who did not complain of XN. XN reports were validated against serum retinol concentrations and pupillary dark adaptation measurements in cases and controls. INTERVENTION: All children and women who reported XN or had other signs of active xerophthalmia were treated with vitamin A and followed up 3-4 weeks later. Half of the untreated control group who had their serum retinol examined in the baseline examination were also followed up. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of reported XN was 12.5%. At baseline, mean pupillary threshold (-1.52 vs -1.55 log cd/m(2), P=0.501) and median serum retinol concentrations (0.95 vs 0.93 micromol/l, P=0.734) were not significantly different in cases and controls either overall or in each population group. More restricted case definitions reduced the prevalence of reported XN to 5.5% (P<0.001), but there was still no significant difference between cases and controls although the results were in the expected direction. After treatment, the median serum retinol concentration improved significantly only in the most deficient group, the young children. Dark adaptation improved in all the subgroups but the difference was only significant for young children and primary school-age children when the restricted case definitions were used. CONCLUSIONS: XN reports are a poor indicator of vitamin A deficiency in this population. SPONSORSHIP: Task Force Sight and Life, Basel, Switzerland.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.

Modelling distributional trends to inform conservation strategies for endangered species

Aim: Species loss has increased significantly over the last 1000 years and is ultimately attributed to the direct and indirect consequences of increased human population growth across the planet. A growing number of species are becoming endangered and require human intervention to prevent their local extirpation or complete extinction. Management strategies aimed at mitigating a species loss can benefit greatly from empirical approaches that indicate the rate of decline of a species providing objective information on the need for immediate conservation actions, e.g. captive breeding; however, this is rarely employed. The current study used a novel method to examine the distributional trends of a model endangered species, the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.).
Location: United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.
Methods: Using species presence data within 10-km grid squares since records began three-parameter logistic regression curves were fitted to extrapolate an estimated date of regional extinction.
Results: This study has shown that freshwater pearl mussel distribution has contracted since known historical records and outlier populations were lost first. Within the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, distribution loss has been greatest in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England, respectively, with the Republic of Ireland containing the highest relative proportion of M. margaritifera distribution, in 1998.
Main conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence that this species could become extinct throughout countries within the United Kingdom within 170 years under the current trends and emphasizes that regionally specific management strategies need to be implemented to prevent extirpation of this species.

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V),compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G -V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid : host and predator : prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.

Press perturbations and indirect effects in real food webs

The prediction of the effects of disturbances in natural systems is limited by the general lack of knowledge on the strength of species interactions, i.e., the effect of one species on the population growth rate of another, and by the uncertainty of the effects that may be manifested via indirect pathways within the food web. Here we explored the consequences of changes in species populations for the remaining species within nine exceptionally well-characterized empirical food webs, for which, unlike the vast majority of other published webs, feeding links have been fully quantied. Using the inverse of the Jacobian matrix, we found that perturbations to species with few connections have larger net effects (considering both direct and indirect pathways between two species) on the rest of the food web than do disturbances to species that are highly connected. For 40% of predator-prey links, predators had positive net effects on prey populations, due to the predominance of indirect interactions. Our results highlight the fundamental, but often counterintuitive, role of indirect effects for the maintenance of food web complexity and biodiversity.

Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881

Recent empirical research questions the validity of using Malthusian theory in preindustrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650–1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region: Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages, and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a Malthusian economy wherein population growth decreased living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. However, these results also demonstrate how the system is best characterized as one of weak homeostasis. Furthermore, there is no evidence of Boserupian effects given that increases in population failed to spur any sustained technological progress.

Consideration of coastal risk in the Irish spatial planning process

The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.

Comparative functional responses predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivorous snails.

Understanding determinants of the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien species is amongst the most sought-after and urgent research questions in ecology. Several studies have shown the value of comparing the functional responses (FRs) of alien and native predators towards native prey, however, the technique is under-explored with herbivorous alien species and as a predictor of invasiveness as distinct from ecological impact. Here, in China, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the FRs among three herbivorous snail species: the golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, a highly invasive and high impact alien listed in “100 of the World's Worst Invasive Alien Species”; Planorbarius corneus, a non-invasive, low impact alien; and the Chinese native snail, Bellamya aeruginosa, when feeding on four locally occurring plant species. Further, by using a numerical response equation, we modelled the population dynamics of the snail consumers. For standard FR parameters, we found that the invasive and damaging alien snail had the highest “attack rates” a, shortest “handling times” h and also the highest estimated maximum feeding rates, 1/hT, whereas the native species had the lowest attack rates, longest handling times and lowest maximum feeding rates. The non-invasive, low impact alien species had consistently intermediate FR parameters. The invasive alien species had higher population growth potential than the native snail species, whilst that of the non-invasive alien species was intermediate. Thus, while the comparative FR approach has been proposed as a reliable method for predicting the ecological impacts of invasive predators, our results further suggest that comparative FRs could extend to predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivores and should be explored in other taxa and trophic groups to determine the general utility of the approach.