Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources

In two experiments we tested the prediction derived from Tversky and Kahneman's (1983) work on the causal conjunction fallacy that the strength of the causal connection between constituent events directly affects the magnitude of the causal conjunction fallacy. We also explored whether any effects of perceived causal strength were due to graded output from heuristic Type 1 reasoning processes or the result of analytic Type 2 reasoning processes. As predicted, Experiment 1 demonstrated that fallacy rates were higher for strongly than for weakly related conjunctions. Weakly related conjunctions in turn attracted higher rates of fallacious responding than did unrelated conjunctions. Experiment 2 showed that a concurrent memory load increased rates of fallacious responding for strongly related but not for weakly related conjunctions. We interpret these results as showing that manipulations of the strength of the perceived causal relationship between the conjuncts result in graded output from heuristic reasoning process and that additional mental resources are required to suppress strong heuristic output.

Who is susceptible to conjunction fallacies in category-based induction?

Recent evidence suggests that the conjunction fallacy observed in people's probabilistic reasoning is also to be found in their evaluations of inductive argument strength. We presented 130 participants with materials likely to produce a conjunction fallacy either by virtue of a shared categorical or a causal relationship between the categories in the argument. We also took a measure of participants' cognitive ability. We observed conjunction fallacies overall with both sets of materials but found an association with ability for the categorical materials only. Our results have implications for accounts of individual differences in reasoning, for the relevance theory of induction, and for the recent claim that causal knowledge is important in inductive reasoning.

Decontextualised Minds: Adolescents with Autism are Less Susceptible to the Conjunction Fallacy than Typically Developing Adolescents

The conjunction fallacy has been cited as a classic example of the automatic contextualisation of problems. In two experiments we compared the performance of autistic and typically developing adolescents on a set of conjunction fallacy tasks. Participants with autism were less susceptible to the conjunction fallacy. Experiment 2 also demonstrated that the difference between the groups did not result from increased sensitivity to the conjunction rule, or from impaired processing of social materials amongst the autistic participants. Although adolescents with autism showed less bias in their reasoning they were not more logical than the control group in a normative sense. The findings are discussed in the light of accounts which emphasise differences in contextual processing between typical and autistic populations.

Modelling Duqu 2.0 Malware using Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

In this paper we identify requirements for choosing a threat modelling formalisation for modelling sophisticated malware such as Duqu 2.0. We discuss the gaps in current formalisations and propose the use of Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction when it comes to analysing complex attacks. The paper models Duqu 2.0 based on the latest information sourced from formal and informal sources. This paper provides a well structured model which can be used for future analysis of Duqu 2.0 and related attacks.

Genetic maternity and paternity in a local population of armadillos assessed by microsatellite DNA markers and field data.

Genetic data from polymorphic microsatellite loci were employed to estimate paternity and maternity in a local population of nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) in northern Florida. The parentage assessments took advantage of maximum likelihood procedures developed expressly for situations when individuals of neither gender can be excluded a priori as candidate parents. The molecular data for 290 individuals, interpreted alone and in conjunction with detailed biological and spatial information for the population, demonstrate high exclusion probabilities and reasonably strong likelihoods of genetic parentage assignment in many cases; low mean probabilities of successful reproductive contribution to the local population by individual armadillo adults in a given year; and statistically significant microspatial associations of parents and their offspring. Results suggest that molecular assays of highly polymorphic genetic systems can add considerable power to assessments of biological parentage in natural populations even when neither parent is otherwise known.

rbcL sequences reveal multiple cryptic introductions of the Japanese red alga Polysiphonia harveyi.

In Europe, the last 20 years have seen a spectacular increase in accidental introductions of marine species, but it has recently been suggested that both the actual number of invaders and their impacts have been seriously underestimated because of the prevalence of sibling species in marine habitats. The red alga Polysiphoniaharveyi is regarded as an alien in the British Isles and Atlantic Europe, having appeared in various locations there during the past 170 years. Similar or conspecific populations are known from Atlantic North America and Japan. To choose between three competing hypotheses concerning the origin of P. harveyi in Europe, we employed rbcL sequence analysis in conjunction with karyological and interbreeding data for samples and isolates of P. harveyi and various congeners from the Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. All cultured isolates of P. harveyi were completely interfertile, and there was no evidence of polyploidy or aneuploidy. Thus, this biological species is both morphologically and genetically variable: intraspecific rbcL divergences of up to 2.1% are high even for red algae. Seven rbcL haplotypes were identified. The four most divergent haplotypes were observed in Japanese samples from Hokkaido and south-central Honshu, which are linked by hypothetical 'missing' haplotypes that may be located in northern Honshu. These data are consistent with Japan being the centre of diversity and origin for P. harveyi. Two non-Japanese lineages were linked to Hokkaido and Honshu, respectively. A single haplotype was found in all North Atlantic and Mediterranean accessions, except for North Carolina, where the haplotype found was the same as that invading in New Zealand and California. The introduction of P. harveyi into New Zealand has gone unnoticed because P. strictissima is a morphologically indistinguishable native sibling species. The sequence divergence between them is 4–5%, greater than between some morphologically distinct red algal species. Two different types of cryptic invasions of P. harveyi have therefore occurred. In addition to its introduction as a cryptic sibling species in New Zealand, P. harveyi has been introduced at least twice into the North Atlantic from presumed different source populations. These two introductions are genetically and probably also physiologically divergent but completely interfertile.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

Comparison of mass transfer effects in the heterogeneously catalysed hydrogenation of phenyl acetylene in heptane and an ionic liquid

The selective heterogeneous catalytic reduction of phenyl acetylene to styrene over palladium supported on calcium carbonate is reported in both an ionic liquid and a molecular solvent. By using a rotating disc reactor in conjunction with results from a stirred tank reactor it is possible, for the first time, to disentangle the mass transfer contributions in the ionic liquid system. For both heptane and 1-butyl-3-methyl imidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide, the reaction in the rotating disc reactor is dominated by reaction in the entrained film on the disc compared with very limited reaction in the bulk liquid. The lower reaction rate obtained in the ionic liquid compared with the organic solvent is shown to be due to the slow transport of the hydrogen dissolved in the liquid. It is clear from the results presented herein that, although the hydrodynamics of similar reactors used for biological treatment of wastewater are well understood, on using a more viscous fluid and higher rotation speeds necessary for fine chemical catalysis these simple relationships breakdown.

Pullout test correlations and in-place strength assessment - the European Concrete Frame Building Project

A full-scale, seven-story, reinforced concrete building frame was constructed in-place at the Building Research Establishment's Cardington Laboratory, which encompassed a range of different concrete mixtures and advanced construction techniques. This provided an opportunity to assess in-place nondestructive test methods, namely the pullout test, and more specifically the Danish version, which has been known as the Lok test, on a systematic basis during the construction of the building. It was used in conjunction with both standard and temperature-matched cube specimens to assess its practicality and accuracy under site conditions. Strength correlations were determined using linear and power function regression analysis. Strength predictions from these were found to be in very good agreement with the compressive strengths of temperature-matched cube specimens. When a general correlation is used, however, estimates for compressive strength are likely to have 95% confidence limits of around '20% of the mean value of four results.

The calcium channel blocker used with cyclosporin has an effect on gingival overgrowth

Background/aims, To investigate whether the choice of calcium channel blocker, used in conjunction with cyclosporin A, affected the prevalence of gingival overgrowth.

The DUB/USP17 deubiquitinating enzymes, a multigene family within a tandemly repeated sequence

Here we report the identification of 10 human, 1 murine, and 2 rat ORFs, all of which represent additional members of the DUB/USP17 family of deubiquitinating enzymes. In addition, we demonstrate that this family constitutes part of a tandemly repeated sequence conserved throughout humans, mice, and rats. Furthermore, upon examination of the known family members we have found that the multiple genes observed, in contrast to other gene families, have arisen due to the independent expansion of an ancestral sequence within each species. This premise is further strengthened by the observation that the murine and rat genes span two exons while their human counterparts have one. These observations, in conjunction with previous work demonstrating that the DUB/USP17's are cytokine inducible and that they regulate both cell growth and survival, suggest that the DUB/USP17's are a large highly conserved family of genes that may play an important role in controlling cell fate.

Emission-line ratios for [N II] in gaseous nebulae and a comparison between theory and observation

R-matrix calculations of electron impact excitation rates among the 2s(2)2p(2) P-3, D-1, S-1, and 2s2p(3) S-5 levels of N II are presented. These results are used in conjunction with other recent calculations of electron impact excitation rates and Einstein A-coefficients for N II to derive the emission-line ratio: ratio diagrams and where (R-1, R-2) (R-1, R-3), where R-1 = I(5756.2 Angstrom)/I(6549.9 + 6585.2 Angstrom), R-2 = I(2143.5 Angstrom)/I(6549.9 + 6585.2 Angstrom), and R-3 = I(2139.7 Angstrom)/I(6549.9 + 658.2 Angstrom), for a range of electron temperatures (T-e = 5000-20,000 K) and electron densities (N-e = 10(2)-10(7) cm(-3)) appropriate to gaseous nebulae. These diagrams should, in principle, allow the simultaneous determination of T-e and N-e from measurements of the [N II] lines in a spectrum. Plasma parameters deduced for a sample of gaseous nebulae, using observational data obtained from ground-based telescopes plus the International Ultraviolet Explorer and Hubble Space Telescope satellites, are found to show generally excellent internal consistency and to be in good agreement with the values of T-e and N-e estimated from other line ratios. These results provide observational support for the accuracy of the theoretical ratios and hence the atomic data adopted in their derivation. Theoretical ratios are also presented for the infrared line pair R-4 = I(122 mum)/I(205 mum), and the usefulness of R-4 as an electron density diagnostic is briefly discussed.

An investigation of Fe XV emission lines in solar flare spectra

Previously, large discrepancies have been found between theory and observation for Fe XV emission line ratios in solar flare spectra covering the 224-327 angstrom wavelength range, obtained by the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A instrument on board Skylab. These discrepancies have been attributed to either errors in the adopted atomic data or the presence of additional atomic processes not included in the modelling, such as fluorescence. However our analysis of these plus other S082A flare observations (the latter containing Fe XV transitions between 321-482 angstrom), performed using the most recent Fe XV atomic physics calculations in conjunction with a chianti synthetic flare spectrum, indicate that blending of the lines is primarily responsible for the discrepancies. As a result, most Fe XV lines cannot be employed as electron density diagnostics for solar flares, at least at the spectral resolution of S082A and similar instruments (i.e.similar to 0.1 angstrom). An exception is the intensity ratio I(3s3p P-3(2)-3p(2) P-3(1))/I(3s3p P-3(2)-3p(2) D-1(2))=I(321.8 angstrom)/I(327.0 angstrom), which appears to provide good estimates of the electron density at this spectral resolution.

Observational evidence of gentle chromospheric evaporation during the impulsive phase of a solar flare

Observational evidence of gentle chromospheric evaporation during the impulsive phase of a C9.1 solar flare is presented using data from the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager and the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Until now, evidence of gentle evaporation has often been reported during the decay phase of solar flares, where thermal conduction is thought to be the driving mechanism. Here we show that the chromospheric response to a low flux of nonthermal electrons (>= 5 cm(-2) s(-1)) results in plasma upflows of 13 +/- 16, 16 +/- 18, and 110 +/- 58 km s(-1) in the cool He I and O V emission lines and the 8 MK Fe XIX line, respectively. These findings, in conjunction with other recently reported work, now confirm that the dynamic response of the solar atmosphere is sensitively dependent on the flux of incident electrons.