Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Liouville-space R-matrix-Floquet description of atomic radiative processes involving autoionizing states in the presence of intense electromagnetic fields

A reduced-density-operator description is developed for coherent optical phenomena in many-electron atomic systems, utilizing a Liouville-space, multiple-mode Floquet–Fourier representation. The Liouville-space formulation provides a natural generalization of the ordinary Hilbert-space (Hamiltonian) R-matrix-Floquet method, which has been developed for multi-photon transitions and laser-assisted electron–atom collision processes. In these applications, the R-matrix-Floquet method has been demonstrated to be capable of providing an accurate representation of the complex, multi-level structure of many-electron atomic systems in bound, continuum, and autoionizing states. The ordinary Hilbert-space (Hamiltonian) formulation of the R-matrix-Floquet method has been implemented in highly developed computer programs, which can provide a non-perturbative treatment of the interaction of a classical, multiple-mode electromagnetic field with a quantum system. This quantum system may correspond to a many-electron, bound atomic system and a single continuum electron. However, including pseudo-states in the expansion of the many-electron atomic wave function can provide a representation of multiple continuum electrons. The 'dressed' many-electron atomic states thereby obtained can be used in a realistic non-perturbative evaluation of the transition probabilities for an extensive class of atomic collision and radiation processes in the presence of intense electromagnetic fields. In order to incorporate environmental relaxation and decoherence phenomena, we propose to utilize the ordinary Hilbert-space (Hamiltonian) R-matrix-Floquet method as a starting-point for a Liouville-space (reduced-density-operator) formulation. To illustrate how the Liouville-space R-matrix-Floquet formulation can be implemented for coherent atomic radiative processes, we discuss applications to electromagnetically induced transparency, as well as to related pump–probe optical phenomena, and also to the unified description of radiative and dielectronic recombination in electron–ion beam interactions and high-temperature plasmas.

A Statistical Model for Shadowed Body Centric Communications Channels: Theory and Validation

This paper presents a new statistical signal reception model for shadowed body-centric communications channels. In this model, the potential clustering of multipath components is considered alongside the presence of elective dominant signal components. As typically occurs in body-centric communications channels, the dominant or line-of-sight (LOS) components are shadowed by body matter situated in the path trajectory. This situation may be further exacerbated due to physiological and biomechanical movements of the body. In the proposed model, the resultant dominant component which is formed by the phasor addition of these leading contributions is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. A wide range of measured and simulated shadowed body-centric channels considering on-body, off-body and body-to-body communications are used to validate the model. During the course of the validation experiments, it was found that, even for environments devoid of multipath or specular reflections generated by the local surroundings, a noticeable resultant dominant component can still exist in body-centric channels where the user's body shadows the direct LOS signal path between the transmitter and the receiver.

Unpacking the Roma Participation Puzzle: Presence, Voice and Influence

The idea that Roma communities need to be included in public life is rather uncontroversial, widely accepted by Roma activists, academics and policy-makers in national and transnational political contexts. But, what do we mean by participation? Are we talking about formal political structures or do we refer to the capacity of ordinary Roma to have a presence in public life? The right to participation for minorities is specified by international norms but is interpreted differently in national contexts. Nevertheless, participation alone is not enough, thus minorities require 'effective' participation given that the utilitarian principles of liberal democracy means that groups such as Roma will always be outvoted. This article is based on the conviction that addressing the multiple and inter-connected issues facing Roma communities across Europe requires the participation of Roma in social, economic and political life. Whilst the article acknowledges the structural barriers which inhibit attempts to foster the integration of Roma communities, it does consider different conceptions of political participation including presence, voice and influence and how these are understood by the European Union and its member states with regards to Roma.

Exhaled nitric oxide correlates with airway eosinophils in childhood asthma

Background: Exhaled nitric oxide has been proposed as a marker for airway inflammation in asthma. The aim of this study was to compare exhaled nitric oxide levels with inflammatory cells and mediators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from asthmatic and normal children.

Methods: Children were recruited from elective surgical lists and a non-bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed after induction of anaesthesia. Exhaled nitric oxide (parts per billion) was measured by two techniques: tidal breathing and restricted breath.

Results: Median (interquartile range) exhaled nitric oxide measured by restricted breath was increased in asthmatics compared with normal children (24.3 (10.5–66.5) v 9.7 (6.5–16.5), difference between medians 14.6 (95% CI 5.1 to 29.9), p=0.001). In asthmatic children exhaled nitric oxide correlated significantly with percentage eosinophils (r=0.78, p<0.001 (tidal breathing) and r=0.78, p<0.001 (restricted breath)) and with eosinophilic cationic protein (r=0.53, p<0.01 restricted breath)), but not with other inflammatory cells in the BAL fluid. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves for the prediction of the presence of eosinophilic airways inflammation by exhaled nitric oxide (tidal and restricted) was 0.80 and 0.87, respectively.

Conclusions: Exhaled nitric oxide correlates closely with percentage eosinophils in BAL fluid in asthmatic children and is therefore likely to be a useful non-invasive marker of airway inflammation.