Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Étude des impacts écologiques du dynamisme spatio-temporel des habitats naturels sur la faune menacée du Complexe Zones Humides Mahavavy-Kinkony, Madagascar.

This study of the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) assesses the impacts of habitat change on the resident globally threatened fauna. Located in Boeny Region, northwest Madagascar, the Complex encompasses a range of habitats including freshwater lakes, rivers, marshes, mangrove forests, and deciduous forest. Spatial modelling and analysis tools were used to (i) identify the important habitats for selected, threatened fauna, (ii) assess their change from 1950 to 2005, (iii) detect the causes of change, (iv) simulate changes to 2050 and (v) evaluate the impacts of change. The approach for prioritising potential habitats for threatened species used ecological science techniques assisted by the decision support software Marxan. Nineteen species were analysed: nine birds, three primates, three fish, three bats and one reptile. Based on knowledge of local land use, supervised classification of Landsat images from 2005 was used to classify the land use of the Complex. Simulations of land use change to 2050 were carried out based on the Land Change Modeler module in Idrisi Andes with the neural network algorithm. Changes in land use at site level have occurred over time but they are not significant. However, reductions in the extent of reed marshes at Lake Kinkony and forests at Tsiombikibo and Marofandroboka directly threaten the species that depend on these habitats. Long term change monitoring is recommended for the Mahavavy Delta, in order to evaluate the predictions through time. The future change of Andohaomby forest is of great concern and conservation actions are recommended as a high priority. Abnormal physicochemical properties were detected in lake Kinkony due to erosion of the four watersheds to the south, therefore an anti-erosion management plan is required for these watersheds. Among the species of global conservation concern, Sakalava rail (Amaurornis olivieri), Crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and dambabe (Paretroplus dambabe) are estimated the most affected, but at the site level Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckeni), kotsovato (Paretroplus kieneri) and Madagascan big-headed turtle (Erymnochelys madagascariensis) are also threatened. Local enforcement of national legislation on hunting means that MKWC is among the sites where the flying fox (Pteropus rufus) and Madagascan rousette (Rousettus madagascariensis) are well protected. Ecological restoration, ecological research and actions to reduce anthropogenic pressures are recommended.