Dynamics of North Patagonian rainforests from fine-resolution pollen, charcoal and tree-ring analysis, Chonos Archipelago, Southern Chile

Fine-resolution palaeoecological and dendrochronological methods were used to investigate the impacts of climate change, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances on vegetation in the North Patagonian rainforest of southern Chile at decadal to century timescales during the late Holocene. A lake sediment mud–water interface core was collected from the northern Chonos Archipelago and analysed for pollen and charcoal. Dendrochronological analysis of tree cores collected from stands of Pilgerodendron uviferum close to the lake site was incorporated into the study. The combined analysis showed that the present mosaic of vegetation types in this region is a function of environmental changes across a range of timescales: millennial climate change, more recent natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and possibly short-term climatic variations. Of particular interest is the spatiotemporal distribution of Pilgerodendron uviferum dieback/burning in the Chonos Archipelago region.

Glacial to paraglacial history and forest recovery in the Oglio glacier system (Italian Alps) between 26 and 15 ka cal BP

The integrated stratigraphic, radiocarbon and palynological record from an end-moraine system of the Oglio valley glacier (Italian Alps), propagating a lobe upstream in a lateral reach, provided evidence for a complete cycle of glacial advance, culmination and withdrawal during the Last Glacial Maximum and early Lateglacial. The glacier culminated in the end moraine shortly after 25.8 +/- 0.8 ka cal BP, and cleared the valley floor 18.3-17.2 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP. A primary paraglacial phase is then recorded by fast progradation of the valley floor.

As early as 16.7 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP, early stabilization of alluvial fans and lake filling promoted expansion of cembran pine. This is an unprecedented evidence of direct tree response to depletion of paraglacial activity during the early Lateglacial, and also documents the cembran pine survival in the mountain belt of the Italian Alps during the last glaciation. Between 16.1 and 14.6 +/- 0.5 ka cal BP, debris cones emplacement points to a moisture increase favouring tree Betula and Pinus sylvestris-mugo. A climate perturbation renewed paraglacial activity. According to cosmogenic ages on glacial deposits and AMS radiocarbon ages from lake records in South-Eastern Alps such phase compares favourably with the Gschnitz stadial and with the oscillations recorded at lakes Ragogna. Langsee and Jeserzersee, most probably forced by the latest freshening phases of the Heinrich Event 1.

A further sharp pine rise marks the subsequent onset of Bolling interstadial. The chronology of the Oglio glacier compares closely with major piedmont glaciers on the Central and Eastern Alpine forelands. On the other hand, the results of the present study imply a chronostratigraphic re-assessment of the recent geological mapping of the Central Italian Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of invasive browsers on demographic rates and forest structure in New Zealand

Background/Question/Methods

Assessing the large scale impact of deer populations on forest structure and composition is important because of their increasing abundance in many temperate forests. Deer are invasive animals and sometimes thought to be responsible for immense damage to New Zealand’s forests. We report demographic changes taking place among 40 widespread indigenous tree species over 20 years, following a period of record deer numbers in the 1950s and a period of extensive hunting and depletion of deer populations during the 1960s and 1970s.

Results/Conclusions

Across a network of 578 plots there was an overall 13% reduction in sapling density of our study species with most remaining constant and a few declining dramatically. The effect of suppressed recruitment when deer populations were high was evident in the small tree size class (30 – 80 mm dbh). Stem density decreased by 15% and species with the greatest annual decreases in small tree density were those which have the highest rates of sapling recovery in exclosures indicating that deer were responsible. Densities of large canopy trees have remained relatively stable. There were imbalances between mortality and recruitment rates for 23 of the 40 species, 7 increasing and 16 in decline. These changes were again linked with sapling recovery in exclosures; species which recovered most rapidly following deer exclusion had the greatest net recruitment deficit across the wider landscape, indicating recruitment suppression by deer as opposed to mortality induced by disturbance and other herbivores. Species are not declining uniformly across all populations and no species are in decline across their entire range. Therefore we predict that with continued deer presence some forests will undergo compositional changes but that none of the species tested will become nationally extinct.

Impacts of invasive browsers on demographic rates and forest structure in New Zealand. Available from: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267285500_Impacts_of_invasive_browsers_on_demographic_rates_and_forest_structure_in_New_Zealand [accessed Oct 9, 2015].

Quaternary pollen analysis: recent progress in palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology

During the last decade Quaternary pollen analysis has developed towards improved pollen-taxonomical precision, automated pollen identification and more rigorous definition of pollen assemblage zones. There have been significant efforts to model the spatial representation of pollen records in lake sediments which is important for more precise interpretation of the pollen records in terms of past vegetation patterns. We review the difficulties in matching modelled post-glacial plant migration patterns with pollen-based palaeorecords and discuss the potential of DNA analysis of pollen to investigate the ancestry and past migration pathways of the plants. In population ecology there has been an acceleration of the widely advocated conceptual advance of pollen-analytical research from vaguely defined ‘environmental reconstructions’ towards investigating more precisely defined ecological problems aligned with the current ecological theories. Examples of such research have included an increasing number of investigations about the ecological impacts of past disturbances, often integrating pollen records with other palaeoecological data. Such an approach has also been applied to incorporate a time perspective to the questions of ecosystem restoration, nature conservation and forest management. New lines of research are the use of pollen analysis to study long-term patterns of vegetation diversity, such as the role of glacial-age vegetation fragmentation as a cause of Amazonian rain forest diversity, and to investigate links between pollen richness and past plant diversity. Palaeoclimatological use of pollen records has become more quantitative and has included more precise and rigorous testing of pollen-climate calibration models with modern climate data. These tests show the approximate nature of the models and warn against a too straightforward climatic interpretation of the small-scale variation in reconstructions. Pollenbased climate reconstructions over the Late Glacial–early Holocene boundary have indicated that pollen-stratigraphical changes have been rapid with no evidence for response lags. This does not rule out the possibility of migrational disequilibrium, however, as the rapid changes may be mostly due to nonmigrational responses of existing vegetation. It is therefore difficult to assess whether the amplitude of reconstructed climate change reflects real climate change. Other outstanding problems remain the obscure relationship of pollen production and climate, the role of human impact and other nonclimatic factors, and nonanalogue situations.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes using Madagascar as an example. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar from 2000-2080 in three climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 hectares of forest cover for each species, and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each climate scenario. We interviewed natural forest restoration project managers and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species’ ranges, the overlap between species’ ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species’ ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha), avoidance of forest degradation (loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha), avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha), and establishment of forest on non-forested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that though forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Integrated Earth Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Multilevel Gas Sampling: A Tool to Map Geogenic and Anthropogenic Methane Accumulation on Brownfield Sites

Soil gas emissions of methane and carbon dioxide on brownfield sites are usually attributed to anthropogenic activities; however geogenic sources of soil gas are often not considered during site investigation and risk management strategies. This paper presents a field study at a redeveloped brownfield site on a flood plain to identify accumulations of methane biogas trapped in underlying sediments. The investigation is based on a multidisciplinary approach using direct multi-level sampling measurements and Earth resistivity tomography . Resistivity imaging was applied to evaluate the feasibility of identifying the size and spatial continuity of soil gas accumulations in anthropogenic and naturally occurring deposits. As a result, biogas accumulations are described within both anthropogenic deposits and pristine organic sediments. This result is important to identify the correct approaches to identify and manage risks associated with soil gas emissions on brownfield and pristine sites. The organic-rich sediments in Quaternary fluvial environments of São Paulo Basin in particular the Tietê River, biogas reservoirs can be generated and trapped beneath geogenic and anthropogenic layers, potentially requiring the management of brownfield developments across this region.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature, all of which are correlated with productivity. Here we argue that predicted scenarios of global change will result in increased plant productivity. We model three scenarios of change using simple Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which explore how a global change in productivity might affect the strength of local species interactions and detail the consequences for community and ecosystem level stability. Our results indicate that (i) at local scales the average population size of consumers may decline because of poor quality food resources, (ii) that the strength of species interactions at equilibrium may become weaker because of reduced population size, and (iii) that species populations may become more variable and may take longer to recover from environmental or anthropogenic disturbances. At local scales interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionatty important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We examine how such local patterns might be affected given various scenarios of 'global change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic plasticity affects the response of a sexually selected trait to anthropogenic noise

Sexually selected traits are shaped by an interaction between sexual selection and other natural selection pressures in the environment. However, there is little understanding of how recent anthropogenic environmental change affects the elaboration of sexually selected traits. Most sexually selected traits are complex displays comprising multiple components that interact in a functional way, thereby affecting overall trait expression. To understand how environmental change may shape the expression of sexually selected traits, we have to consider not only (i) the phenotypic plasticity of individual components of traits but also their (ii) phenotypic integration, that is, the correlations among trait components, as well as (iii) plasticity integration, that is, the correlations among the plasticities of trait components. Here, we show that background noise is a considerable pressure in shaping a sexually selected multicomponent acoustic signal, bird song. We compared singing behavior of European robins (Erithacus rubecula) in territories that differed in levels of anthropogenic noise and conducted noise-exposure experiments to test if behavioral plasticity caused immediate changes in song components, for example, minimum frequency, song complexity, and song length. We found that song components differed in their plasticity to background noise and that plasticity integration between components may further restrict the elaboration of song. Thus, the altered expression of song components under noise exposure leads to increased phenotypic integration, which is linked with reduced song complexity. Our findings demonstrate that plasticity integration restricts the elaboration of a sexually selected trait, which raises the question of how changing environments may modify sexual selection.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Stability Analysis and Implementation of a Decentralized Formation Control Strategy for Unmanned Vehicles

This paper presents a new methodology for solving the multi-vehicle formation control problem. It employs a unique extension-decomposition-aggregation scheme to transform the overall complex formation control problem into a group of subproblems, which work via boundary interactions or disturbances. Thus, it is proved that the overall formation system is exponentially stable in the sense of Lyapunov, if all the individual augmented subsystems (IASs) are stable. Linear matrix inequality-based H8 control methodology is employed to design the decentralized formation controllers to reject the impact of the formation changes being treated as boundary disturbances and guarantee the stability of all the IASs, consequently maintaining the stability of the overall formation system. Simulation studies are performed to verify the stability, performance, and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

Review and quantitative meta-analysis of diet suggests the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is likely to be a poor bioindicator

The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra L.) is a top predator in aquatic systems and plays an important role in ecosystem functioning. However, it has undergone dramatic declines throughout Europe as a result of environmental degradation. We examine the putative role of the otter as a bioindicator in Ireland which remains a stronghold for the species and affords a unique opportunity to examine variation in its ecological niche. We describe diet, using spraint contents, along rivers during 2010 and conduct a review and quantitative meta-analysis of the results of a further 21 studies. We aimed to assess variation in otter diet in relation to river productivity, a proxy for natural nutrification and anthropogenic eutrophication, and availability of salmonid prey (Salmo trutta and Salmo salar), to test the hypothesis that otter diet is related to environmental quality. Otter diet did not vary with levels of productivity or availability of salmonids whilst Compositional Analysis suggested there was no selection of salmonid over non-salmonid fish. There was a distinct niche separation between riverine and lacustrine systems, the latter being dominated by Atlantic eel (Anguilla anguilla). Otters are opportunistic and may take insects, freshwater mussels, birds, mammals and even fruit. Otters living along coasts have a greatest niche breath than those in freshwater systems which encompasses a wide variety of intertidal prey though pelagic fish are rarely taken. It is concluded that the ability of the otter to feed on a wide diversity of prey taxa and the strong influence of habitat type, renders it a poor bioindicator of environmental water quality. It seems likely that the plasticity of the habitat and dietary niche of otters, and the extent of suitable habitat, may have sustained populations in Ireland despite intensification of agriculture during the 20th century.

Care and Management of Ancient Stone Monuments During Environmental Change

Ancient stone monuments (ASMs), such as standing stones and rock art panels, are powerful and iconic expressions of Britain’s rich prehistoric past that have major economic and tourism value. However, ASMs are under pressure due to increasing anthropogenic exposure and changing climatic conditions, which accelerate their rates of disrepair. Although scientific data exists on the integrity of stone monuments, most applies to “built” systems; therefore, additional work specific to ASMs in the countryside is needed to develop better-informed safeguarding strategies. Here, we use Neolithic and Bronze Age rock art panels across Northern England as a case study for delineating ASM management actions required to enhance monument preservation. The state of the rock art is described first, including factors that led to current conditions. Rock art management approaches then are described within the context of future environments, which models suggest to be more dynamic and locally variable. Finally, a Condition Assessment and Risk Evaluation (CARE) scheme is proposed to help prioritise interventions; an example of which is provided based on stone deterioration at Petra in Jordon. We conclude that more focused scientific and behavioural data, specific to deterioration mechanisms, are required for an ASM CARE scheme to be successful.