Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean–atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.