Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

The energy costs of sexual dimorphism in mole-rats are morphological not behavioural.

Different reproductive strategies of males and females may lead to the evolution of differences in their energetic costs of reproduction, overall energetic requirements and physiological performances. Sexual dimorphism is often associated with costly behaviours (e.g. large males might have a competitive advantage in fighting, which is energetically expensive). However, few studies of mammals have directly compared the energy costs of reproductive activities between sexes. We compared the daily energy expenditure (DEE) and resting metabolic rate (RMR) of males and females of two species of mole-rat, Bathyergus janetta and Georychus capensis (the former is sexually dimorphic in body size and the latter is not) during a period of intense digging when males seek females. We hypothesized that large body size might be indicative of greater digging or fighting capabilities, and hence greater mass-independent DEE values in males of the sexually dimorphic species. In contrast to this prediction, although absolute values of DEE were greater in B. janetta males, mass-independent values were not. No differences were apparent between sexes in G. capensis. By comparison, although RMR values were greater in B. janetta than G. capensis, no differences were apparent between the sexes for either species. The energy cost of dimorphism is most likely to be the cost of maintenance of a large body size, and not the cost of behaviours performed when an individual is large.