Rarity and decline in bumblebees - A test of causes and correlates in the Irish fauna

Bees are believed to be in decline across many of the world's ecosystems. Recent studies on British bumblebees proposed alternative theories to explain declines. One study suggested that greater dietary specialization among the rarer bumblebee species makes them more susceptible to decline. A second study disputed this theory and found that declines in British bumblebees were correlated with the size of species' European ranges, leading to the suggestion that climate and habitat specialization may be better indicators of the risk of decline. Here we use a new and independent dataset based on Irish bumblebees to test the generality of these theories. We found that most of the same bumblebee species are declining across the British Isles, but that, within Ireland, a simple food-plant specialization model is inadequate to explain these declines. Furthermore, we found no evidence of a relationship between declines in Irish bumblebees and the size of species' European ranges. However, we demonstrate that the late emerging species have declined in Ireland (and in Britain), and that these species show a statistically significant westward shift to the extremity of their range, probably as a result of changing land use. Irish data support the finding that rare and declining bumblebees are later nesting species, associated with open grassy habitats. We suggest that the widespread replacement of hay with silage in the agricultural landscape, which results in earlier and more frequent mowing and a reduction in late summer wildflowers, has played a major role in bumblebee declines. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Historical and Current Threats to Common Frog (Rana Temporaria) Populations in Ireland

Ponds are an ephemeral feature of the landscape but their large-scale loss can have profound implications for biodiversity and the persistence of amphibian populations. We quantified rates of pond loss throughout Ireland over a period of approximately 125 yr. Environmental parameters and perceived risk factors associated with the current occurrence and density of the Common Frog, Rana temporaria, were also analyzed. The numbers of farmland ponds declined by 54% between 1887–1913 and 2005–11, with most ponds and the greatest losses
in the East, coincident with agricultural intensification and human habitation. The decline of pond numbers was significant but, at approximately 0.5% per annum, was substantially less than losses recorded in other European countries. Losses were coincident with major changes to the agricultural landscape including extensive land drainage. However, losses of pond and natural wetland habitats throughout Ireland may have been partially or wholly mitigated by a synchronous expansion of artificial field margin ditches associated with drainage projects during the mid-20th Century. The ecology of the Common Frog in Ireland was similar to its ecology elsewhere and it appears largely unaffected by pollution and disturbance. Consequently, the conservation status of the frog in Ireland was judged ‘‘favorable’’ and should remain so for the foreseeable future.

Choosing and using diversity indices: Insights for ecological applications from the German Biodiversity Exploratories

Biodiversity, a multidimensional property of natural systems, is difficult to quantify partly because of the multitude of indices proposed for this purpose. Indices aim to describe general properties of communities that allow us to compare different regions, taxa, and trophic levels. Therefore, they are of fundamental importance for environmental monitoring and conservation, although there is no consensus about which indices are more appropriate and informative. We tested several common diversity indices in a range of simple to complex statistical analyses in order to determine whether some were better suited for certain analyses than others. We used data collected around the focal plant Plantago lanceolata on 60 temperate grassland plots embedded in an agricultural landscape to explore relationships between the common diversity indices of species richness (S), Shannon's diversity (H'), Simpson's diversity (D1), Simpson's dominance (D2), Simpson's evenness (E), and Berger–Parker dominance (BP). We calculated each of these indices for herbaceous plants, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, aboveground arthropods, belowground insect larvae, and P. lanceolata molecular and chemical diversity. Including these trait-based measures of diversity allowed us to test whether or not they behaved similarly to the better studied species diversity. We used path analysis to determine whether compound indices detected more relationships between diversities of different organisms and traits than more basic indices. In the path models, more paths were significant when using H', even though all models except that with E were equally reliable. This demonstrates that while common diversity indices may appear interchangeable in simple analyses, when considering complex interactions, the choice of index can profoundly alter the interpretation of results. Data mining in order to identify the index producing the most significant results should be avoided, but simultaneously considering analyses using multiple indices can provide greater insight into the interactions in a system.

Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V),compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G -V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid : host and predator : prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.

Agricultural intensification and biodiversity partitioning in European landscapes comparing plants, carabids, and birds

Effects of agricultural intensification (AI) on biodiversity are often assessed on the plot scale, although processes determining diversity also operate on larger spatial scales. Here, we analyzed the diversity of vascular plants, carabid beetles, and birds in agricultural landscapes in cereal crop fields at the field (n = 1350), farm (n = 270), and European-region (n = 9) scale. We partitioned diversity into its additive components alpha, beta, and gamma, and assessed the relative contribution of beta diversity to total species richness at each spatial scale. AI was determined using pesticide and fertilizer inputs, as well as tillage operations and categorized into low, medium, and high levels. As AI was not significantly related to landscape complexity, we could disentangle potential AI effects on local vs. landscape community homogenization. AI negatively affected the species richness of plants and birds, but not carabid beetles, at all spatial scales. Hence, local AI was closely correlated to beta diversity on larger scales up to the farm and region level, and thereby was an indicator of farm-and region-wide biodiversity losses. At the scale of farms (12.83-20.52%) and regions (68.34-80.18%), beta diversity accounted for the major part of the total species richness for all three taxa, indicating great dissimilarity in environmental conditions on larger spatial scales. For plants, relative importance of alpha diversity decreased with AI, while relative importance of beta diversity on the farm scale increased with AI for carabids and birds. Hence, and in contrast to our expectations, AI does not necessarily homogenize local communities, presumably due to the heterogeneity of farming practices. In conclusion, a more detailed understanding of AI effects on diversity patterns of various taxa and at multiple spatial scales would contribute to more efficient agri-environmental schemes in agroecosystems.

Response of farmland biodiversity to the introduction of bioenergy crops: effects of local factors and surrounding landscape context

The recent growth in bioenergy crop cultivation, stimulated by the need to implement measures to reduce net CO emissions, is driving major land-use changes with consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Although the type of bioenergy crop and its associated management is likely to affect biodiversity at the local (field) scale, landscape context and its interaction with crop type may also influence biodiversity on farms. In this study, we assessed the impact of replacing conventional agricultural crops with two model bioenergy crops (either oilseed rape Brassica napus or Miscanthus × giganteus) on vascular plant, bumblebee, solitary bee, hoverfly and carabid beetle richness, diversity and abundance in 50 sites in Ireland. We assessed whether within-field biodiversity was also related to surrounding landscape structure. We found that local- and landscape-scale variables correlated with biodiversity in these agricultural landscapes. Overall, the differences between the bioenergy crops and the conventional crops on farmland biodiversity were mostly positive (e.g. higher vascular plant richness in Miscanthus planted on former conventional tillage, higher solitary bee abundance and richness in Miscanthus and oilseed rape compared with conventional crops) or neutral (e.g. no differences between crop types for hoverflies and bumblebees). We showed that these crop type effects were independent of (i.e. no interactions with) the surrounding landscape composition and configuration. However, surrounding landscape context did relate to biodiversity in these farms, negatively for carabid beetles and positively for hoverflies. Although we conclude that the bioenergy crops compared favourably with conventional crops in terms of biodiversity of the taxa studied at the field scale, the effects of large-scale planting in these landscapes could result in very different impacts. Maintaining ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services will require a greater understanding of impacts at the landscape scale to ensure the sustainable development of climate change mitigation measures.

Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Holocene landscape intervention and plant food production strategies in island and mainland Southeast Asia

In the areas adjacent to the drowned Pleistocene continent of Sunda – present-day Mainland and Island SE Asia – the Austronesian Hypothesis of a diaspora of rice cultivators from Taiwan ∼4200 years ago has often been linked with the start of farming. Mounting evidence suggests that these developments should not be conflated and that alternative explanations should be considered, including indigenous inception of complex patterns of plant food production and early exchange of plants, animals, technology and genes. We review evidence for widespread forest disturbance in the Early Holocene which may accompany the beginnings of complex food-production. Although often insubstantial, evidence for incipient and developing management of rainforest vegetation and of developing complex relationships with plants is present, and early enough to suggest that during the Early to mid-Holocene this vast region was marked by different approaches to plant food production. The trajectory of the increasingly complex relationships between people and their food organisms was strongly locally contingent and in many cases did not result in the development of agricultural systems that were recognisable as such at the time of early European encounters. Diverse resource management economies in the Sunda and neighbouring regions appear to have accompanied rather than replaced a reliance on hunting and gathering. This, together with evidence for Early Holocene interaction between these neighbours, gives cause for us to question some authors continued adherence to a singular narrative of the Austronesian Hypothesis and the ‘Neolithisation’ of this part of the world. It also leads us to suggest that the forests of this vast region are, to an extent, a cultural artefact.

Beyond the Orange and the Green. The Diversification of the Qualitative Social Research Landscape in Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland conflict has been described as one of the most over-researched conflicts in the world. However, this is a relatively recent development. For many years, when the conflict was most intense, social scientists in Northern Ireland were silent and not vocal. The sectarian violence that dominated the life in Northern Ireland as well as the fact that the country was a fundamentally unjust society contributed to this silence. However, since the peace process began in the mid 1990s, a growing number of qualitative studies have been published, utilising one-to-one interviews and focus group discussions, in order to "make people's voices heard" and deal with the consequences of the so-called "Troubles". This paper looks into the emergence of a qualitative social research landscape in Northern Ireland beyond the conflict and explores issues so far neglected. It is argued that a number of factors have contributed to this, among them the availability of research funding to voluntary and community sector organisations that use their data to influence policy-making and equality legislation in a country which is still deeply divided along socio-religious lines.