Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Novel pyridyl-stabilised rigid-rod organometallic polymers and their monomeric precursors

Reaction of trans-[Pt(NC5H4CHBu2n)(2)Cl-2] 1 with an excess of HC=CR (R = Ph, C6H4Me, C6H4NO2) affords the monomeric complex trans-[Pt(NC5H4CHBu2n)(2)(C=CR)(2)] (R = Ph 2a, C6H4Me 2b, C6H4NO2 2c), the trans arrangement of the alkynyl ligands being confirmed from spectroscopic data and by an X-ray analysis of 2c;when 1 is treated with 1 equiv, of HC=CC6H2(Me)(2)C=CH the polymer [Pt(NC5H4CHBu2n)(2)C=CC6H2Me2C=C](n) is formed, which is soluble in a range of organic solvents.

Simultaneous use of mephedrone and alcohol: A qualitative study of users' experiences

Mephedrone (4-methylmethcathinone) gained popularity across "recreational" drug scenes in the United Kingdom and Ireland during 2009. Although mephedrone was banned in both jurisdictions in 2010, the drug was subsequently sourced through street dealers. This qualitative study explores the simultaneous use of mephedrone and alcohol, among study participants who used mephedrone following legislative controls. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with male and female respondents. The results suggest a three-tier classification system that describes users' experiences with simultaneous use of mephedrone and alcohol. Most participants engaged in "heavy" alcohol use immediately prior to consuming mephedrone, and then reduced alcohol consumption as the effects of mephedrone were experienced during the drug episode. Spontaneous use of mephedrone often was associated with larger amounts of alcohol being consumed just prior to the mephedrone episode. The findings have the potential for informing socioepidemiological surveys as well as peer interventions to reduce harm associated with
simultaneous drug use.

Evaluation of Microcollimated Pars Plana External Beam Radiation in the Porcine Eye

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical and histological side effects of a prototype stereotactic radiotherapy system delivering microcollimated external beam radiation through pars plana in porcine eyes.

Methods: Five Yucatan mini-swine (10 eyes) were randomized to five treatment groups. Eight eyes were dosed with X-ray radiation on Day 1, and two eyes served as untreated controls. Treated eyes received doses up to 60 Gy to the retina and up to 130 Gy to the sclera using single or overlapping beams. The treatment beams were highly collimated such that the diameter was approximately 2.5 mm on the sclera and 3 mm on the retinal surface. Fundus photography, fluorescein angiography (FA), and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) were obtained on days 7, 30, 60, and 110. Images were examined by a masked grader and evaluated for abnormalities. Animals were sacrificed on day 111 and gross and histopathological analysis was conducted.

Results: Histological and gross changes to eye structures including conjunctiva and lens were minimal at all doses. Fundus, FA, and SD-OCT of the targeted region failed to disclose any abnormality in the control or 21 Gy treated animals. In the 42 and 60 Gy animals, hypopigmented spots were noted after treatment on clinical exam, and corresponding hyperfluorescent staining was seen in late frames. No evidence of choroidal hypoperfusion was seen. The histological specimens from the 60 Gy animals showed photoreceptor loss and displacement of cone nuclei.

Conclusion: Transcleral stereotactic radiation dosing in porcine eyes can be accomplished with no significant adverse events as doses less than 42 Gy.

Modified Lipoproteins in Diabetic Retinopathy: A Local Action in the Retina

Clinical epidemiological studies have revealed relatively weak, yet statistically significant, associations between dyslipidemia/dyslipoproteinemia and diabetic retinopathy (DR). Recent large interventional studies, however, demonstrated an unexpectedly robust efficacy of fenofibrate on the development of DR, possibly independent of plasma lipids. To unify the apparent discrepancies, we hypothesize that plasma lipoproteins play an indirect but important role in DR, contingent on the integrity of the blood-retina-barrier (BRB). In retinas with an intact BRB, plasma lipoproteins may be largely irrelevant; however, important effects become operative after the BRB is impaired in diabetes, leading to lipoprotein extravasation and subsequent modification, hence toxicity to the neighbouring retinal cells. In this hypothesis, BRB leakage is the key, plasma lipoprotein concentrations mainly modulate its consequences, and fenofibrate has intra-retinal actions. This review summarizes our current knowledge of the direct effects and mechanisms of modified lipoproteins on retinal cells and their potential contribution to the pathogenesis of DR.