Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.

Psychological distress in mothers of children admitted to a nutritional rehabilitation unit in Malawi - a comparison with other paediatric wards

In a previous study we found a very high prevalence of psychological distress in mothers of children admitted to a nutritional rehabilitation unit (NRU) in Malawi, Africa. The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence and severity of maternal distress within the NRU with that in other paediatric wards. Given the known association between poor maternal psychological well-being and child undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries, we hypothesised that distress would be higher among NRU mothers. Mothers of consecutive paediatric inpatients in a NRU, a high-dependency (and research) unit and an oncology ward were assessed for psychological distress using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ). Two hundred sixty-eight mothers were interviewed (90.3% of eligible). The prevalence of SRQ score ≥8 was 35/150 {23.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16.8- 30.9%]} on the NRU, 13/84 [15.5% (95% CI 8.5-25.0%)] on the high-dependency unit and 7/34 [20.6% (95% CI 8.7-37.9%)] on the oncology ward (χ(2)  = 2.04, P = 0.36). In linear regression analysis, the correlates of higher SRQ score were child diarrhoea on admission, child diagnosed with tuberculosis, and maternal experience of abuse by partner; child height-for-age z-score fell only just outside significance (P = 0.05). In summary, we found no evidence of greater maternal distress among the mothers of severely malnourished children within the NRU compared with mothers of paediatric inpatients with other severe illnesses. However, in support of previous research findings, we found some evidence that poor maternal psychological well-being is associated with child stunting and diarrhoea.

Climate drives temporal replacement and nested‐resultant richness patterns of Scottish coastal vegetation

Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we investigate temporal replacement and nestedness patterns of coastal grassland species over a 34-yr time period. We aim to 1) understand the influence of two potentially pivotal processes (climate and land-use changes) on landscape-scale (5 × 5 km) temporal replacement and nestedness patterns, and 2) investigate whether patterns from one β-diversity component can mask observable patterns in the other.

We summarised key aspects of climate driven macro-ecological variation as measures of variance, long-term trends, between-year similarity and extremes, for three important climatic predictors (minimum temperature, water-balance and growing degree-days). Shifts in landscape-scale heterogeneity, a proxy of land-use change, was summarised as a spatial multiple-site dissimilarity measure. Together, these climatic and spatial predictors were used in a multi-model inference framework to gauge the relative contribution of each on temporal replacement and nestedness patterns.

Temporal β-diversity patterns were reasonably well explained by climate change but weakly explained by changes in landscape-scale heterogeneity. Climate was shown to have a greater influence on temporal nestedness than replacement patterns over our study period, linking nestedness patterns, as a result of imbalanced gains and losses, to climatic warming and extremes respectively. Important climatic predictors (i.e. growing degree-days) of temporal β-diversity were also identified, and contrasting patterns between the two β-diversity components revealed.

Results suggest climate influences plant species recruitment and establishment processes of Scotland's coastal grasslands, and while species extinctions take time, they are likely to be facilitated by climatic perturbations. Our findings also highlight the importance of distinguishing between different components of β-diversity, disentangling contrasting patterns than can mask one another.

Physical rehabilitation interventions for adult patients during critical illness: an overview of systematic reviews

Background Physical rehabilitation interventions aim to ameliorate the effects of critical illness-associated muscle dysfunction in survivors. We conducted an overview of systematic reviews (SR) evaluating the effect of these interventions across the continuum of recovery.

Methods Six electronic databases (Cochrane Library, CENTRAL, DARE, Medline, Embase, and Cinahl) were searched. Two review authors independently screened articles for eligibility and conducted data extraction and quality appraisal. Reporting quality was assessed and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach applied to summarise overall quality of evidence.

Results Five eligible SR were included in this overview, of which three included meta-analyses. Reporting quality of the reviews was judged as medium to high. Two reviews reported moderate-to-high quality evidence of the beneficial effects of physical therapy commencing during intensive care unit (ICU) admission in improving critical illness polyneuropathy/myopathy, quality of life, mortality and healthcare utilisation. These interventions included early mobilisation, cycle ergometry and electrical muscle stimulation. Two reviews reported very low to low quality evidence of the beneficial effects of electrical muscle stimulation delivered in the ICU for improving muscle strength, muscle structure and critical illness polyneuropathy/myopathy. One review reported that due to a lack of good quality randomised controlled trials and inconsistency in measuring outcomes, there was insufficient evidence to support beneficial effects from physical rehabilitation delivered post-ICU discharge.

Conclusions Patients derive short-term benefits from physical rehabilitation delivered during ICU admission. Further robust trials of electrical muscle stimulation in the ICU and rehabilitation delivered following ICU discharge are needed to determine the long-term impact on patient care. This overview provides recommendations for design of future interventional trials and SR.

Investigating Fractured Flow from Orthopaedics to Rehabilitation

Patients often spend time as inpatients in hospitals outside their home area because of the need to access specialist services. If there is a need for ongoing care after the need for specialist care has passed, patients are transferred (or ‘repatriated’) back to the inpatient care of a hospital in their local Health and Social Care Trust. The need for bed space in specialist units means that there is pressure for this transition to occur in a timely way. We investigated the flow of patients through a trauma and orthopaedics unit using the 6M Design® framework and Vitals Charts® in order to investigate concerns about delayed repatriation. We found that repatriation was part of a complex system that had interdependent components. There was considerable variation in the number of discharges (to any destination) by day of week, with a reduction on Saturdays and Sundays. Understanding that the pressure for quicker repatriation was really due to high work-in-progress led us to model the effects of strategies to address the high work-in-progress. We found that, because only a small proportion of patients require repatriation, expediting the repatriation process by one day for each patient would only reduce WIP by an average of 1.6 patients. Reducing the average length of stay for all trauma and orthopaedics inpatients by one day would reduce the WIP by 10 patients, which would make a much greater impact on the problem of high bed occupancy. Though the smooth and timely repatriation of patients to rehabilitation units is desirable, it is unlikely that efforts to achieve this will have a substantial impact on the problem of high WIP, so other strategies will be required. We will model the effects of strategies to reduce variation in daily discharges by the day of week in a future essay.