International inter-school competition to encourage children to walk to school: a mixed methods feasibility study.

Background: Active travel to school can be an important contributor to the total physical activity of children but levels have declined and more novel approaches are required to stimulate this as an habitual behaviour. The aim of this mixed methods study was to investigate the feasibility of an international walk to school competition supported by novel swipecard technology to increase children's walking to/from school. Methods: Children aged 9-13 years old participated in an international walk to school competition to win points for themselves, their school and their country over a 4-week period. Walks to and from school were recorded using swipecard technology and a bespoke website. For each point earned by participants, 1 pence (£0.01) was donated to the charity of the school's choice. The primary outcome was number of walks to/from school objectively recorded using the swipecard tracking system over the intervention period. Other measures included attitudes towards walking collected at baseline and week 4 (post-intervention). A qualitative sub-study involving focus groups with children, parents and teachers provided further insight. Results: A total of 3817 children (mean age 11.5±SD 0.7) from 12 schools in three cities (London and Reading, England and Vancouver, Canada) took part in the intervention, representing a 95% intervention participation rate. Results show a gradual decline in the average number of children walking to and from school over the 4-week period (week 1 mean 29%±SD2.5; week 2 mean 18%±SD3.6; week 3 mean 14%±SD4.0; week 4 mean 12%±SD1.1). Post intervention, 97% of children felt that walking to school helped them stay healthy, feel happy (81%) and stay alert in class (76%). These results are supported by qualitative findings from children, parents and teachers. Key areas for improvement include the need to incorporate strategies for maintenance of behaviour change into the intervention and also to adopt novel methods of data collection to increase follow-up rates. Conclusions: This mixed methods study suggests that an international walk to school competition using innovative technology can be feasibly implemented and offers a novel way of engaging schools and motivating children to walk to school.

Consensus and Confusion in Molluscan Trees: Evaluating Morphological and Molecular Phylogenies

Mollusks are the most morphologically disparate living animal phylum, they have diversified into all habitats, and have a deep fossil record. Monophyly and identity of their eight living classes is undisputed, but relationships between these groups and patterns of their early radiation have remained elusive. Arguments about traditional morphological phylogeny focus on a small number of topological concepts but often without regard to proximity of the individual classes. In contrast, molecular studies have proposed a number of radically different, inherently contradictory, and controversial sister relationships. Here, we assembled a dataset of 42 unique published trees describing molluscan interrelationships. We used these data to ask several questions about the state of resolution of molluscan phylogeny compared to a null model of the variation possible in random trees constructed from a monophyletic assemblage of eight terminals. Although 27 different unique trees have been proposed from morphological inference, the majority of these are not statistically different from each other. Within the available molecular topologies, only four studies to date have included the deep-sea class Monoplacophora; but 36.4% of all trees are not significantly different. We also present supertrees derived from 2 data partitions and 3 methods, including all available molecular molluscan phylogenies, which will form the basis for future hypothesis testing. The supertrees presented here were not constructed to provide yet another hypothesis of molluscan relationships, but rather to algorithmically evaluate the relationships present in the disparate published topologies. Based on the totality of available evidence, certain patterns of relatedness among constituent taxa become clear. The internodal distance is consistently short between a few taxon pairs, particularly supporting the relatedness of Monoplacophora and the chitons, Polyplacophora. Other taxon pairs are rarely or never found in close proximity, such as the vermiform Caudofoveata and Bivalvia. Our results have specific utility for guiding constructive research planning in order to better test relationships in Mollusca as well as other problematic groups. Taxa with consistently proximate relationships should be the focus of a combined approach in a concerted assessment of potential genetic and anatomical homology, while unequivocally distant taxa will make the most constructive choices for exemplar selection in higher-level phylogenomic analyses.

Are there latitudinal gradients in species turnover?

Aim To examine the effect on the observed relationship betw een spatial turnover and latitude of both the measure of beta diversity used and the method of analysis.

Location The empirical analyses presented herein are for the New World.

Methods We take the spatial distributions of the owls of the New World as an exemplar data set to investigate the patterns of beta diversity across latitudes revealed by different analytical methods. To illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of alternative measures of beta diversity and different analytical approaches, we also use a simple random distribution model, focusing in particular on the influence of richness gradients and landmass geometry.

Results Our simple spatial model of turnover demonstrates that different combinations of analytical approach and measure of beta diversity can give rise to strikingly different relationships between turnover and latitude. The analyses of the bird data for the owls of the New World demonstrate that this observation extends to real data.

Conclusions For the particular assemblage considered, we present strong evidence that species richness declines at higher latitudes, and there is also some evidence that species turnover is greater nearer the equator, despite conceptual and practical difficulties involved in analysing spatial patterns of species turnover. We suggest some ways of overcoming these difficulties.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Constructing random matrices to represent real ecosystems

Models of complex systems with n components typically have order n² parameters because each component can potentially interact with every other. When it is impractical to measure these parameters, one may choose random parameter values and study the emergent statistical properties at the system level. Many influential results in theoretical ecology have been derived from two key assumptions: that species interact with random partners at random intensities and that intraspecific competition is comparable between species. Under these assumptions, community dynamics can be described by a community matrix that is often amenable to mathematical analysis. We combine empirical data with mathematical theory to show that both of these assumptions lead to results that must be interpreted with caution. We examine 21 empirically derived community matrices constructed using three established, independent methods. The empirically derived systems are more stable by orders of magnitude than results from random matrices. This consistent disparity is not explained by existing results on predator-prey interactions. We investigate the key properties of empirical community matrices that distinguish them from random matrices. We show that network topology is less important than the relationship between a species’ trophic position within the food web and its interaction strengths. We identify key features of empirical networks that must be preserved if random matrix models are to capture the features of real ecosystems.

The Imagined Contact Hypothesis

Imagined intergroup contact (Crisp & Turner, 2009) is a new indirect contact strategy for promoting tolerance and more positive intergroup relations. Research has shown that mentally simulating a positive interaction with an outgroup member can elicit more favorable explicit and implicit outgroup attitudes, less stereotyping, and enhance intentions to engage in future contact. This review documents the range of benefits that accrue from imagined contact, the processes through which it operates, and the conditions that limit or enhance its effectiveness. Studies have shown when, how, and why imagining contact reduces prejudice against a range of different target groups, and how it can be integrated with existing contact-based approaches to provide maximally effective strategies for improving intergroup relations. The approach is not without its critics, and this review addresses the controversies and debates stimulated by imagined contact theory and research. The review concludes with a discussion of the value that imagery techniques can bring to implementations of contact theory, and how the approach offers a new, flexible, and effective tool for practitioners and policy makers in their efforts to promote, encourage, and enhance more harmonious intergroup relations.

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

Pre-Processing Power Traces to Defeat Random Clocking Countermeasures

We describe a pre-processing correlation attack on an FPGA implementation of AES, protected with a random clocking countermeasure that exhibits complex variations in both the location and amplitude of the power consumption patterns of the AES rounds. It is demonstrated that the merged round patterns can be pre-processed to identify and extract the individual round amplitudes, enabling a successful power analysis attack. We show that the requirement of the random clocking countermeasure to provide a varying execution time between processing rounds can be exploited to select a sub-set of data where sufficient current decay has occurred, further improving the attack. In comparison with the countermeasure's estimated security of 3 million traces from an integration attack, we show that through application of our proposed techniques that the countermeasure can now be broken with as few as 13k traces.

Exome sequencing of prostate cancer supports the hypothesis of independent tumour origins

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PCa) is a clinically and pathologically heterogeneous disease. The rapid development of sequencing technology has the potential to deliver new biomarkers with emphasis on aggressive disease and to revolutionise personalised cancer treatment. However, a prostate harbouring cancer commonly contains multiple separate tumour foci, with the potential to aggravate tumour sampling. The level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity through genome-wide, high-resolution profiling of multiple tumour samples from the same individual.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multiple tumour samples were obtained from four individuals following radical prostatectomy. One individual (SWE-1) contained >70% cancer cells in all tumour samples, whereas the other three (SWE-2 to SWE-4) required the use of laser capture microdissection for tumour cell enrichment. Subsequently, DNA was extracted from all tissue samples, and exome sequencing was performed. All tumour foci of SWE-1 were also profiled using a high-resolution array for the identification of copy number alterations (CNA).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Shared somatic high-frequency single nucleotide variants (SNV) and CNAs were used to infer the level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: No high-frequency mutations, common for the three tumour samples of SWE-1, were identified. Ten randomly chosen positions were validated with Sanger sequencing in all foci, which verified the exome data. The high level of intraprostatic heterogeneity was consistent in all individuals. In total, three out of four individuals harboured tumours without an apparent common somatic denominator. Although we cannot exclude the presence of common structural rearrangements, a high-density array was used for the detection of deletions and amplifications in SWE-1, which agreed with the exome data.

CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence for the presence of somatically independent tumours within the same prostate. This finding will have implications for personalised cancer treatment and biomarker discovery.