Solar phase functions of cometary nuclei

Relatively few measurements of the solar phase function of cometary nuclei exist, despite the importance of this parameter in determining accurate sizes and its use in modeling surface properties. We make use of robotic telescopes and servicemode observing to monitor cometary nuclei over months at a time, combining intensive observations at a single epoch with regular short light-curve segments to efficiently account for brightness changes due to both nucleus rotation and changing solar phase angle. We present our latest results on comets 8P/Tuttle, 14P/Wolf, 67P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko and 110P/Hartley 3.

Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

A First Step Towards Cost Functions for Quantum-dot Cellular Automata Designs

Quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA) is potentially a very attractive alternative to CMOS for future digital designs. Circuit designs in QCA have been extensively studied. However, how to properly evaluate the QCA circuits has not been carefully considered. To date, metrics and area-delay cost functions directly mapped from CMOS technology have been used to compare QCA designs, which is inappropriate due to the differences between these two technologies. In this paper, several cost metrics specifically aimed at QCA circuits are studied. It is found that delay, the number of QCA logic gates, and the number and type of crossovers, are important metrics that should be considered when comparing QCA designs. A family of new cost functions for QCA circuits is proposed. As fundamental components in QCA computing arithmetic, QCA adders are reviewed and evaluated with the proposed cost functions. By taking the new cost metrics into account, previous best adders become unattractive and it has been shown that different optimization goals lead to different “best” adders.

Rational Partial Choice Functions and Their Application to Belief Revision.

Necessary and sufficient conditions for choice functions to be rational have been intensively studied in the past. However, in these attempts, a choice function is completely specified. That is, given any subset of options, called an issue, the best option over that issue is always known, whilst in real-world scenarios, it is very often that only a few choices are known instead of all. In this paper, we study partial choice functions and investigate necessary and sufficient rationality conditions for situations where only a few choices are known. We prove that our necessary and sufficient condition for partial choice functions boils down to the necessary and sufficient conditions for complete choice functions proposed in the literature. Choice functions have been instrumental in belief revision theory. That is, in most approaches to belief revision, the problem studied can simply be described as the choice of possible worlds compatible with the input information, given an agent’s prior belief state. The main effort has been to devise strategies in order to infer the agents revised belief state. Our study considers the converse problem: given a collection of input information items and their corresponding revision results (as provided by an agent), does there exist a rational revision operation used by the agent and a consistent belief state that may explain the observed results?

Probabilistic Planning in AgentSpeak using the POMDP framework.

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.