Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in Northern Ireland, 2000-2011: a population-based study

Purpose To evaluate the incidence of treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) over a 12-year-period in Northern Ireland. Methods The medical records of all infants treated for ROP from January 2000 to December 2011were retrospectively reviewed and cross-referenced with the Neonatal Intensive Care Outcomes Research and Evaluation (NICORE) database. Results The Northern Ireland population data showed an increase in the number of live births from 2000 to 2011. The proportion of babies born with a birth weight <1501 g and/or <32 weeks’ gestational age remained constant (χ2 trend = 3.220, P = 0.0727), although the proportion of these babies who died prior to 42 weeks’ gestation decreased from 2000 to 2011 (P = 0.0196 using χ2 for trend = 5.445; P = 0.0354 using χ2 = 20.809). The prevalence of treatment-requiring ROP in these infants increased from 1.05% in 2000 to 5.78% in 2011 (P < 0.001 using χ2 trend = 16.309; P < 0.001 using χ2 = 31.378). Conclusions The present population-based study highlights that the incidence of treatment- requiring ROP is increasing in Northern Ireland. The increasing number of infants requiring treatment will need to be taken into consideration in the commissioning process for ROP services in Northern Ireland.

Intravitreal AAV2.COMP-Ang1 prevents neurovascular degeneration in a murine model of diabetic retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in the working-age population in the United States. The vision-threatening processes of neuroglial and vascular dysfunction in DR occur in concert, driven by hyperglycemia and propelled by a pathway of inflammation, ischemia, vasodegeneration, and breakdown of the blood retinal barrier. Currently, no therapies exist for normalizing the vasculature in DR. Here we show that a single intravitreal dose of adeno-associated virus serotype 2 encoding a more stable, soluble, and potent form of angiopoietin 1 (AAV2.COMP-Ang1) can ameliorate the structural and functional hallmarks of DR in Ins2Akita mice, with sustained effects observed through six months. In early DR, AAV2.COMP-Ang1 restored leukocyte-endothelial interaction, retinal oxygenation, vascular density, vascular marker expression, vessel permeability, retinal thickness, inner retinal cellularity, and retinal neurophysiological response to levels comparable to non-diabetic controls. In late DR, AAV2.COMP-Ang1 enhanced the therapeutic benefit of intravitreally-delivered endothelial colony-forming cells by promoting their integration into the vasculature and thereby stemming further visual decline. AAV2.COMP-Ang1 single-dose gene therapy can prevent neurovascular pathology, support vascular regeneration, and stabilize vision in DR.

Genome-wide association study for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy reveals association with genetic variation near the GRB2 gene

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus and can lead to blindness. A genetic component, in addition to traditional risk factors, has been well described although strong genetic factors have not yet been identified. Here, we aimed to identify novel genetic risk factors for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy using a genome-wide association study.

METHODS: Retinopathy was assessed in white Australians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Genome-wide association analysis was conducted for comparison of cases of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (n = 336) with diabetic controls with no retinopathy (n = 508). Top ranking single nucleotide polymorphisms were typed in a type 2 diabetes replication cohort, a type 1 diabetes cohort and an Indian type 2 cohort. A mouse model of proliferative retinopathy was used to assess differential expression of the nearby candidate gene GRB2 by immunohistochemistry and quantitative western blot.

RESULTS: The top ranked variant was rs3805931 with p = 2.66 × 10(-7), but no association was found in the replication cohort. Only rs9896052 (p = 6.55 × 10(-5)) was associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in both the type 2 (p = 0.035) and the type 1 (p = 0.041) replication cohorts, as well as in the Indian cohort (p = 0.016). The study-wide meta-analysis reached genome-wide significance (p = 4.15 × 10(-8)). The GRB2 gene is located downstream of this variant and a mouse model of retinopathy showed increased GRB2 expression in the retina.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Genetic variation near GRB2 on chromosome 17q25.1 is associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy. Several genes in this region are promising candidates and in particular GRB2 is upregulated during retinal stress and neovascularisation.

Pan-retinal photocoagulation and other forms of laser treatment and drug therapies for non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy is an important cause of visual loss. Laser photocoagulation preserves vision in diabetic retinopathy but is currently used at the stage of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR).

OBJECTIVES: The primary aim was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pan-retinal photocoagulation (PRP) given at the non-proliferative stage of diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) compared with waiting until the high-risk PDR (HR-PDR) stage was reached. There have been recent advances in laser photocoagulation techniques, and in the use of laser treatments combined with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs or injected steroids. Our secondary questions were: (1) If PRP were to be used in NPDR, which form of laser treatment should be used? and (2) Is adjuvant therapy with intravitreal drugs clinically effective and cost-effective in PRP?

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for efficacy but other designs also used.

REVIEW METHODS: Systematic review and economic modelling.

RESULTS: The Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS), published in 1991, was the only trial designed to determine the best time to initiate PRP. It randomised one eye of 3711 patients with mild-to-severe NPDR or early PDR to early photocoagulation, and the other to deferral of PRP until HR-PDR developed. The risk of severe visual loss after 5 years for eyes assigned to PRP for NPDR or early PDR compared with deferral of PRP was reduced by 23% (relative risk 0.77, 99% confidence interval 0.56 to 1.06). However, the ETDRS did not provide results separately for NPDR and early PDR. In economic modelling, the base case found that early PRP could be more effective and less costly than deferred PRP. Sensitivity analyses gave similar results, with early PRP continuing to dominate or having low incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, there are substantial uncertainties. For our secondary aims we found 12 trials of lasers in DR, with 982 patients in total, ranging from 40 to 150. Most were in PDR but five included some patients with severe NPDR. Three compared multi-spot pattern lasers against argon laser. RCTs comparing laser applied in a lighter manner (less-intensive burns) with conventional methods (more intense burns) reported little difference in efficacy but fewer adverse effects. One RCT suggested that selective laser treatment targeting only ischaemic areas was effective. Observational studies showed that the most important adverse effect of PRP was macular oedema (MO), which can cause visual impairment, usually temporary. Ten trials of laser and anti-VEGF or steroid drug combinations were consistent in reporting a reduction in risk of PRP-induced MO.

LIMITATION: The current evidence is insufficient to recommend PRP for severe NPDR.

CONCLUSIONS: There is, as yet, no convincing evidence that modern laser systems are more effective than the argon laser used in ETDRS, but they appear to have fewer adverse effects. We recommend a trial of PRP for severe NPDR and early PDR compared with deferring PRP till the HR-PDR stage. The trial would use modern laser technologies, and investigate the value adjuvant prophylactic anti-VEGF or steroid drugs.

STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005408.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Phacoemulsification combined with posterior capsulorhexis and anterior vitrectomy in the management of malignant glaucoma in phakic eyes

Purpose: To describe sequential phacoemulsification-intraocular lens (IOL) implantation-posterior capsulorhexis-anterior vitrectomy in the management of phakic malignant glaucoma. Methods: Twenty consecutive patients (25 eyes) with phakic malignant glaucoma were enrolled at the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University. All patients underwent phacoemulsification, IOL implantation and posterior capsulorhexis together with anterior vitrectomy via a clear corneal paracentesis. Visual acuity, intraocular pressure (IOP), anterior chamber depth (ACD), surgical complications and medications required after the surgery were recorded. Results: After surgery, the mean LogMAR visual acuity and ACD increased significantly (visual acuity from -1.56 ± 1.17 to -0.54 ± 0.81, p < 0.001; ACD from 0.367 ± 0.397 mm to 2.390 ± 0.575 mm, p < 0.001), and mean IOP decreased significantly (from 39.6 ± 10.6 mm Hg to 14.5 ± 4.1 mmHg, p < 0.001). No serious perioperative complications occurred, and only five eyes required topical glaucoma medications after surgery. Conclusion: Combined phacoemulsification-IOL implantation-posterior capsulorhexis-anterior vitrectomy surgery is a safe and effective method for treating patients with phakic malignant glaucoma. © 2012 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2012 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

The worldwide epidemic of diabetic retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR), a major microvascular complication of diabetes, has a significant impact on the world′s health systems. Globally, the number of people with DR will grow from 126.6 million in 2010 to 191.0 million by 2030, and we estimate that the number with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) will increase from 37.3 million to 56.3 million, if prompt action is not taken. Despite growing evidence documenting the effectiveness of routine DR screening and early treatment, DR frequently leads to poor visual functioning and represents the leading cause of blindness in working-age populations. DR has been neglected in health-care research and planning in many low-income countries, where access to trained eye-care professionals and tertiary eye-care services may be inadequate. Demand for, as well as, supply of services may be a problem. Rates of compliance with diabetes medications and annual eye examinations may be low, the reasons for which are multifactorial. Innovative and comprehensive approaches are needed to reduce the risk of vision loss by prompt diagnosis and early treatment of VTDR.

Attitudes of physicians, patients, and village health workers toward glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy in rural China:A focus group study

Objective: To understand the knowledge and attitudes of rural Chinese physicians, patients, and village health workers (VHWs) toward diabetic eye disease and glaucoma. Methods: Focus groups for each of the 3 stakeholders were conducted in 3 counties (9 groups). The focus groups were recorded, transcribed, and coded using specialized software. Responses to questions about barriers to compliance and interventions to remove these barriers were also ranked and scored. Results: Among 22 physicians, 23 patients, and 25 VHWs, knowledge about diabetic eye disease was generally good, but physicians and patients understood glaucoma only as an acutely symptomatic disease of relatively low prevalence. Physicians did not favor routine pupillary dilation to detect asymptomatic disease, expressing concerns about workflow and danger and inconvenience to patients. Providers believed that cost was the main barrier to patient compliance, whereas patients ranked poorly trained physicians as more important. All 3 stakeholder groups ranked financial interventions to improve compliance (eg, direct payment, lotteries, and contracts) low and preferred patient education and telephone contact by nurses. All the groups somewhat doubted the ability of VHWs to screen for eye disease accurately, but patients were generally willing to pay for VHW screening. The VHWs were uncertain about the value of eye care training but might accept it if accompanied by equipment. They did not rank payment for screening services as important. Conclusions: Misconceptions about glaucoma's asymptomatic nature and an unwillingness to routinely examine asymptomatic patients must be addressed in training programs. Home contact by nurses and patient education may be the most appropriate interventions to improve compliance.

Cortical, but not posterior subcapsular, cataract shows significant familial aggregation in an older population after adjustment for possible shared environmental factors.

PURPOSE:

To quantify the risk for age-related cortical cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract (PSC) associated with having an affected sibling after adjusting for known environmental and personal risk factors.

DESIGN:

Sibling cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS:

Participants in the ongoing Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) study (n = 321; mean age, 78.1+/-4.2 years) and their locally resident siblings (n = 453; mean age, 72.6+/-7.4 years) were recruited at the time of Rounds 3 and 4 of the SEE study. INTERVENTION/TESTING METHODS: Retroillumination photographs of the lens were graded for the presence of cortical cataract and PSC with the Wilmer grading system. The residual correlation between siblings' cataract grades was estimated after adjustment for a number of factors (age; gender; race; lifetime exposure to ultraviolet-B light; cigarette, alcohol, estrogen, and steroid use; serum antioxidants; history of diabetes; blood pressure; and body mass index) suspected to be associated with the presence of cataract.

RESULTS:

The average sibship size was 2.7 per family. Multivariate analysis revealed the magnitude of heritability (h(2)) for cortical cataract to be 24% (95% CI, 6%-42%), whereas that for PSC was not statistically significant (h(2) 4%; 95% CI, 0%-11%) after adjustment for the covariates. The model revealed that increasing age, female gender, a history of diabetes, and black race increased the odds of cortical cataract, whereas higher levels of provitamin A were protective. A history of diabetes and steroid use increased the odds for PSC.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study is consistent with a significant genetic effect for age-related cortical cataract but not PSC.

Impact of posterior subcapsular opacification on vision and visual function among subjects undergoing cataract surgery in rural China: Study of Cataract Outcomes and Up-Take of Services (SCOUTS) in the Caring is Hip Project, report 5.

AIM: To study the effect of posterior capsular opacification (PCO) on vision and visual function in patients undergoing cataract surgery in rural China, and to compare this with the effect of refractive error. METHODS: Patients undergoing cataract surgery in at least one eye by local surgeons in a rural setting between 8 August and 31 December 2005 were examined with slit lamp grading of PCO 10-14 months after surgery. Subjects with any PCO associated with best-corrected visual acuity of 6/7.5 or worse, or with grade 2+ or worse PCO without visual decrement, were offered YAG laser capsulotomy. Vision and self-reported visual function were assessed, and various demographic and clinical factors potentially associated with PCO were recorded. RESULTS: Of 313 patients operated on within the study window, 239 (76%) could be contacted by telephone; study examinations were performed on 176 (74%). Examined subjects had a mean (SD) age of 69.4 (10.5) years, 116 (67%) were female, and 149 (86%) had been blind (presenting visual acuity < or = 6/60) in the operated eye before surgery. PCO of grade 1 or above was present in 34 of 204 operated eyes (16.7%). Those with PCO had significantly worse presenting vision (p = 0.007) but not visual function (p>0.3) than those without PCO. Women had a significantly higher prevalence of PCO (20.9%) than did men (8.6%, p<0.05). Of 19 eyes undergoing capsulotomy with best-corrected visual acuity measured the next day, 13 (68%) improved by one or more lines, and seven (37%) improved by two or more lines. Despite a higher uptake of capsulotomy (95%) as opposed to refraction (35%) in this cohort, the yield in terms of eyes with poor presenting visual acuity (< 6/18) that could be improved was higher for refraction (26% = 9/35) than for capsulotomy (9% = 3/35). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of PCO and impact on vision and visual function in this cohort was modest 1 year after surgery. However, PCO prevalence increases with time. Follow-up of this cohort is underway to determine the effectiveness of this early intervention in identifying and treating subjects who will eventually experience clinically significant PCO.

The role lipid aldehydes and ALEs in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy

Extravascular modified lipoproteins: a role in the propagation of diabetic retinopathy in a mouse model of type 1 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to determine whether plasma lipoproteins, after leakage into the retina and modification by glycation and oxidation, contribute to the development of diabetic retinopathy in a mouse model of type 1 diabetes.

Methods: To simulate permeation of plasma lipoproteins intoretinal tissues, streptozotocin-induced mouse models of diabetes and non-diabetic mice were challenged with intravitreal injection of human ‘highly-oxidised glycated’ low-density lipoprotein (HOG-LDL), native- (N-) LDL, or the vehicle PBS.Retinal histology, electroretinography (ERG) and biochemical markers were assessed over the subsequent 14 days.

Results: Intravitreal administration of N-LDL and PBS had noeffect on retinal structure or function in either diabetic or non-diabetic animals. In non-diabetic mice, HOG-LDL elicited a transient inflammatory response without altering retinal function,but in diabetic mice it caused severe, progressive retinal injury, with abnormal morphology, ERG changes, vascular leakage, vascular endothelial growth factor overexpression, gliosis, endoplasmic reticulum stress, and propensity to apoptosis.

Conclusions/interpretation: Diabetes confers susceptibility to retinal injury imposed by intravitreal injection of modified LDL. The data add to the existing evidence that extravasated, modified plasma lipoproteins contribute to the propagation of diabetic retinopathy. Intravitreal delivery of HOG-LDL simulates a stress known to be present, in addition to hyperglycaemia, in human diabetic retinopathy once blood retinal barriers are compromised.